2022-23 Tennessee basketball preview: backcourt

multiple hoots, several hollers confirmed

Well: I cannot say I expected to be writing the intro to this preview after these guys fully dismantled Gonzaga’s usually-great defense, but here we are. Tennessee returns everyone from last year’s backcourt other than a second-round draft pick (Kennedy Chandler) and an occasionally-used transfer (Victor Bailey). They added a transfer from the MVC who just dropped 26 on Gonzaga along with a five-star freshman to replace those two.

The excitement is palpable. This is Tennessee’s most versatile and interesting backcourt, at least from a shooting perspective, since Chris Lofton was on campus. Are there plenty of questions still to be answered? Of course there are. Did Tennessee already answer some of these very well in a preseason exhibition I promised to not take seriously but am now indeed taking mildly seriously? Yes, they did.

More to the point, this is a pretty exciting group of young men. Tennessee has five players listed here for three spots (more on that tomorrow) that are >50% options to close at least a few important games. Some are locks, while some will have to cement their position in closing lineups throughout the season. Still, on paper, this is the first group Tennessee’s had at guard/wing other than the 2018-19 side that’s this offensively-forward and has this many shooting options under Rick Barnes.

POINT GUARD

Zakai Zeigler
Tyreke Key
Santiago Vescovi
B.J. Edwards

A year ago at this time, the plan was “pray Kennedy Chandler doesn’t get hurt.” Chandler entered the year as Tennessee’s stone-cold, locked-in point guard. Such things are normal when your locked-in point guard is A) an expected one-and-done B) who is the only reasonably proven option you have at point. Santiago Vescovi covered the point his first two years at Tennessee, but by the end of that second year, it was pretty easy to see that point was not his preferred position. Tennessee signed an emergency backup option in August; the only other option on the roster was Justin Powell, very much not a ball-handler.

Chandler came in, averaged nearly 30 minutes a night, led the team in assists, and finished the year as the scoring leader, too. That’s pretty good. All of that is good, and pretty much all of it matched or exceeded (somewhat) his expected output. What happened that changed everything was the shocking emergence of said emergency backup option.

Zakai Zeigler began the season as more of a curiosity than an expected monster of any sort. Zeigler played a total of 31 minutes across Tennessee’s first three games, and I openly asked that Tennessee not involve him too much in a game against North Carolina in mid-November where Zeigler would by far be the smallest player on the floor at 5’9”. Simply put, I’d yet to see much that would indicate someone that small and light could hold up defensively for more than a few breather possessions.

Luckily for literally everyone else, I am an idiot, and Tennessee’s staff saw a mismatch. Zeigler merely tossed up 18 points on 10 shots and more or less locked everyone else out of the point rotation. By the end of the year, Zeigler was getting an equal time-share at point with the five-star projected first-rounder, despite said first-rounder being either the best or second-best player on the team.

It goes without saying that this bypassed all reasonable expectations for Year One of Zeigler. This is a no-star recruit that had zero offers of note until he randomly popped off the page at Peach Jam two months before Tennessee started fall practices. The only solid information given to media members in preseason was that he was fun and could shoot well. Zeigler’s shooting might’ve actually been underwhelming - 35.2% 3PT% on 125 attempts, a nasty 41% 2PT% on 122 shots - but literally everything else came in way above expectation.

Zeigler - again, a guy that I really hadn’t heard much of anything on defensively, and neither had anyone else - merely posted the 11th highest Steal Percentage (4.5%) in all of college basketball. He had the second-highest Assist Rate on the team. He finished the year fourth in scoring on Tennessee’s roster. He was the best free throw shooter, which makes me anticipate a bit of positive regression on the shooting front. He also became the most beloved player on a roster, no small feat given the presence of numerous lovable guys, and this was before Tennessee fans crowd-funded a new house for his family. Oh, and the guy I thought couldn’t play defense was arguably their best defender and ended up on the All-Defense Team.

It goes without saying that Year Two of Zeigler has a ton to match up to. Alongside the two starring-role seniors (we’ll get to the other seniors in the frontcourt section), Zeigler enters this year as one of the key pieces on the roster. As far above expectation as he came in, there’s still some things to work on. 

Shooting has been mentioned several times, but Zeigler took too many ugly mid-range twos (12-for-51 on Other Twos). He also had the worst turnover rate among Tennessee’s main (15+ MPG) rotation with a 20.3% TO%. (Worth noting that this is pretty much right at the SEC average for point guards, though.) Fouls were a minor problem: 3.0 per 40 committed in SEC play, but 3.7 per 40 against top 100 opponents. (Potentially worth noting: in all of Tennessee’s close losses - Michigan, Texas, Alabama, Texas Tech - Zeigler picked up 3+ fouls.) Also, he could…uh…well…?

I don’t know, man, there’s not anything else to nitpick at when you unearth a historically good Big Six freshman that no recruiting service knew existed until July 2021. Bart Torvik’s site allows you to sort all sorts of fancy player stats dating back to 2008. Plugging in numbers like Zeigler had - PRPG! of 1.5 or better, Box Plus-Minus of 4 or better, usage >20%, assists >20%, and a steal rate of >3%, and a freshman at a high-major college - gives you a truly insane list of comparable point guards and/or short guys.

That’s five future NBA players (including Zeigler’s 2021-22 teammate) and one miss out of a list of six players. The only other guy on the list who was as overlooked in recruiting as Zeigler was is Pullen, and Pullen merely went on to become an All-American. The average second-year stats for the guys that stayed for a second year are notable: 12 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.8 SPG. The only other player in the last 30 years of Tennessee basketball to go 12/4/1.5 or better for a full season is…Kennedy Chandler. 

It’s a lot for a young kid from Long Island to match up to. The nice thing about it: it feels like even he is just now figuring out how good he can be. (Quick note: there was a section written about Zeigler’s desire to come off the bench to start games. That didn’t happen in either exhibition game, so until we see it, I’ve removed it.)

With all that said, someone else is required to give Zeigler a breather. The current leader in the clubhouse is apparently Tyreke Key, the Indiana State transfer originally from Celina, TN. Key hasn’t played in a college game since March 2021 due to a shoulder injury, but this is a two-time First Team All-MVC player that Tennessee got to import by way of regional ties and is a particularly obvious “sorry we missed you the first time” case.

Tennessee’s willingness to share publicly their tryout of Key at point is of particular interest because Key really didn’t play that much point guard at Indiana State. Hoop-Explorer’s on/off stats didn’t pick up Key as playing any point guard in 2020-21; KenPom’s depth chart claims he covered maybe 8-10 minutes a game at point but nothing more. (He’s credited with no real point guard time in his first two seasons.) Key was more of a point forward than a point’s point; this is a guy with nearly twice as many career twos as he has three-point attempts and has never averaged more than two assists per game.

The good news for Tennessee is that lineups with Key in it, particularly at point, seem likely to apply a lot of two-point pressure. Key’s career rim conversion rate is 58% - nothing special - but his 2020-21 conversion rate was a spectacular 71%, elite level output for a 6’3” combo guard. To boot: Indiana State made 60.2% of its rim attempts when Key was on the court in 2020-21. When he was off: a horrid 50.5%. We’ll cover more of how he can affect the game in the GUARD section.

The other backups here have either already been mentioned (Santiago Vescovi) or figure to be part of a minutes logjam that they’re unlikely to get out of (B.J. Edwards). Vescovi has played point before and likely will get some point minutes this season, but in his first full season off the ball last year, he was clearly far more comfortable using his athleticism and agility to keep defenders’ heads spinning. You can do that a lot more when you’re not required to have the ball in your hands every single possession.

When Vescovi’s been at point for Tennessee, things have worked fine, but the construction of last year’s roster made it clear that Tennessee had multiple better-fitting options. Vescovi may beat out Key for the ‘backup’ role, but he got a rough total of about 35 minutes at point all of last year. It’s not his first choice, and it won’t be Tennessee’s, either.

Edwards is a true point guard and a local product of Knoxville Catholic. Edwards was an electrifying player in high school and offers a lot of really tantalizing skills. Jerry Meyer of 247 described him as having a “physical game” and “thriving off quick changes of direction and crafty changes of pace.” Tennessee kind of already has that guy in Zeigler, and Edwards’ reputation as a quality shooter was built off of one good year (44% from three sophomore year, 30% the other three years). The good news is that he improved basically everywhere else from the start of high school to graduation. File Edwards under an interesting project we’ll probably hear more from in 2023.

COMBO/WING GUARD

Santiago Vescovi
Julian Phillips
Tyreke Key
Josiah-Jordan James
Jahmai Mashack
D.J. Jefferson

It goes without saying at the top here that Tennessee is likely to use this guard position in a myriad of ways. Rick Barnes came out and said during a public press conference Tennessee was exploring five-guard lineups (presumably your top four on the above list plus Zeigler). If the head coach is saying this in a public setting it is a pretty good indication that they’re taking the concept seriously.

Anyway, given Barnes’ penchant for lineup experimentation in November and December, any of the 2-4 options on the above chart could very well start a game at guard or close one depending on the performance of the others. The only locked-in piece here is Santiago Vescovi, who comes off a season of arguably being Tennessee’s best and most important player.

After 1.5 seasons in orange, Vescovi finally got the chance to play fully off-ball. He flourished wonderfully. There were little pieces during every Tennessee game about how Vescovi outran the rest of the team in practice. They were able to keep talking about this during games because Vescovi backed it up. Vescovi led the SEC in made threes (102), finished second in three-point percentage (40.3%), and finally fulfilled the promise he brought in 2020 when he arrived on campus.

The challenge now is that the scouting report is somewhat out on Vescovi. Michigan switched heavily during the Round of 32 game to ensure Vescovi was unable to get space on the perimeter to shoot, and as the season wore on, Kennedy Chandler became the more important cog in the engine. The good news is two-fold: one, most SEC opponents won’t have the ability or the athleticism to switch appropriately; two, Vescovi got NBA feedback and will have a few things to work on this year. This is a player who’s taken a significant step in the right direction every year he’s been on campus, to the point that it’s somewhat hard to talk about him because we know what he is and what he’s able to do.

If anything, the most notable improvement might be Vescovi’s defense from year one to year three. Vescovi finished 11th in the SEC in steals last season with 58, but the improved athleticism showed itself on the court. Many of you might - should - have memories of Vescovi flying around screens and elbows and completely shutting down Kellan Grady, Kentucky’s only reliable outside shooter. His ability to do that completely changed a game in which Tennessee defeated a future 2 seed by double digits. By the time March came around Vescovi was averaging 35 minutes a night. He won’t be asked to play that much, but 30-32 minutes a night in SEC play seems right.

The new, intriguing piece is five-star freshman Julian Phillips. At 6’8”, Phillips will be taller than at least one likely Tennessee frontcourt starter (and nearly as tall as Olivier Nkamhoua), which is fine. Phillips’ natural position is the 3, which both Tennessee and the scouts seem to agree with. (If this feels weird to you, you’re not alone; I am still mentally used to all small forwards being 6’6”.)

The exciting things Phillips adds offensively all come from the scouting world. Everyone seems to agree Phillips is a good shooter with the ability to be a great one. Everyone also seems to agree he could be a key piece in transition and that he’s a terrific offensive rebounder for his size. Unfortunately, everyone seems to agree that the piece that needs the most work is self-creation; On3’s scouting report noting that he “needs to continue gaining strength in his core” and needs to “get into his shot off the bounce quicker” gives me the indication we won’t see a lot of unassisted baskets unless I’m missing something.

Defensively, Phillips may need some time to get up to speed. Few scouting reports mention his individual defense, but almost everyone mentions that his effort level is unmatched and he’s willing to do the work necessary to become his best self on that side of the ball. Ideally, you’re producing a 3-and-D type that’s ready-made for a modern NBA role, but I’ve seen these projections be wrong in both directions before, so who knows. My safe guess here is that Phillips is a really good, deeply useful player to Tennessee’s fortunes but likely won’t be their best player in the way Chandler was at times in 2021-22.

The reason Tyreke Key is listed ahead of Josiah-Jordan James here is that I expect James to start at the 4 and get a pretty significant amount of time in the frontcourt. Tennessee was at its most successful down the stretch last season when Barnes + staff relented and finally put James in as a stretch 4, which has appeared to be his most natural position. I can’t imagine they’ll just forget about that heading into 2022-23.

So that leaves Key as your primary third guard, though it’s better to think of James as the obviously superior player. Key primarily played at the 2 at Indiana State with a little bit of 3 mixed in; I would imagine that he should mostly spend his time at the 2 at Tennessee. This was covered a bit in the point guard section, but Key’s game for a shooting guard is moderately abnormal. Only once in his four years at Indiana State did he approach something resembling an even shooting split (2019-20: 176 twos, 139 threes). What Tennessee is getting is a guy extremely used to creating his own thing and getting his own points inside the perimeter:

What will be different for Key is adjusting to a newer, less demanding role. At Indiana State, Key was asked to be the #1 or #2 scoring option his final three years there, taking on more the longer he was there. At Tennessee, in the average lineup, he’ll certainly get his shots. It’s not going to be life or death for him to get those shots, though; he will obviously have better talent and likely better spacing around him than he’s had at any other point in his career.

A potential area of real interest for Key is utilizing this talent/spacing upgrade for better shot selection from deep. The ISU version of Key had about 85-90% of his threes assisted, right in line with the rates of Vescovi and Zeigler last year. The vast majority of the self-creation, as mentioned, came inside the perimeter. Synergy notes that across his Sycamore career, Key 4shot 38.7% on 344 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. Off the dribble? 25.8% on 66 attempts.

Obviously the first number is a lot bigger, which will tell you that Key is naturally going to get his three-point production via the kindness of others. (It will also help that Tennessee’s 2021-22 Guarded/Unguarded split was about 3% more favorable than what Key had over four years at ISU.)

Defensively, Key’s career doesn’t suggest a ton of special stuff on the surface. A career peak of 1.1 steals per game looks good, but every Key season at ISU resulted in roughly a national average defensive grade, per Synergy. His peak career Defensive Box Plus-Minus, per Torvik’s site, is +0.9; that would’ve been second-worst on Tennessee’s entire roster last year, only ahead of Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. (He also rated out as the third or fourth-best defender on an above-average ISU defense, nothing great.)

The good news is that you can sort of just say “trust me bro” here. Barnes has had five transfers come in and get at least 7 minutes per game; all five improved defensively from their previous stop, with an average improvement of +1.9 DBPM among them. If Key matches that average, he becomes a team-average defender, which is a lot better than what we just discussed.

James will play some at the 3, to be sure, but as we’ve argued for a while now and finally saw late in both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, his best position is the 4. Per Hoop-Explorer, Tennessee spent about 37% of their on-court time last year with James at the 4. Those lineups posted the following split (garbage time removed):

• JJJ at the 4: 119.5 Schedule-Adjusted Offensive Rating (ORTG), 84.2 Schedule-Adjusted Defensive Rating (DRTG) (+35.3)

• JJJ at the 3: 112.2 ORTG, 85.2 DRTG (+27.0)

That’s an 8 point difference per 100 possessions, which is genuinely pretty big. Tennessee flashed a massive shot selection split when James was at the 3:

• JJJ at the 4: 45.5% of all attempts from three/20.3% non-rim twos/34.2% rim

• JJJ at the 3: 37.5% 3PA/27.5% non-rim twos/35% rim

The shot efficiencies at each were quite notable, too:

• JJJ at the 4: 35.9% 3PT%/32.7% FG% non-rim/61.3% FG% rim

• JJJ at the 3: 39.3% 3PT% (lol)/32.5% FG% non-rim/52.5% FG% rim

Long story short: Tennessee was able to hit threes despite worse spacing, which is a testament to the talent of their shooters. However, everything inside the perimeter became much, much harder, which is not a sustainable thing to have against the meat of your schedule. Play James at the 4, let him defend the 3 if he wants, whatever. If James does have to play the 3, and he will at some point, Tennessee must generate quality looks for him from deep via inside-out movement.

We know James is Tennessee’s best and most versatile defender when healthy; no need for exposition there. This is a pivotal year for a player on his way to being one of the most beloved to wear the orange in program history. A quality step forward in both shooting efficiency and shot selection could lead to an NBA career of some length.

Jahmai Mashack was mostly a defender last year and a darn good one; his Defensive Box Plus-Minus of +5.0 led the entire team. Many have compared him to the career arc Davonte Gaines had, but Mashack did his defensive work on a much more talented roster. Gaines is playing very well at George Mason now, and naturally, that causes some to think that if Mashack gets lost in the shuffle, he could make a similar move.

If Mashack can either add some semblance of a shot or at least do something offensively other than stand there, it will be hard for him to be out of Tennessee’s rotation come February/March. His defensive intensity really is that good, and a lineup with Mashack in it and James at the 4 feels like one that you’re simply not scoring on. The potential for Mashack to bloom this year is there, but the data needs to back it up.

D.J. Jefferson, meanwhile, probably will get lost in the shuffle, or at least he will this year. I cannot confidently figure out where minutes will come for him against non-buy game competition. On3 scout Jamie Shaw notes that his offensive potential is terrific - “compact frame with burst at the rim,” “has a smooth shot from three,” “has a lot of tools in his bag” are all things you really want to hear about a four-star recruit you got relatively late in the process. The presumption, given who’s ahead of him and that he didn’t play in either exhibition game, is that we’ll hear more from Jefferson next year.