2023-24 men's college basketball national preview: lists, observations, and my Top 25 teams

I love ranking things so much for reasons that obviously are not based on SEO

The following post is 5,400+ words, so please do not make me bother with a huge intro here. Enjoy what lies ahead, which is a bunch of lists that I’ve had some fun with. If you prefer to just see my top 25 teams, scroll all the way to the bottom, but I do think there is some valuable and/or mildly interesting information in the meantime. This post functionally reveals no unique research, so I’ve made it free. I still think you should sign up.

Anyway! No mas words.

“A guy writing a bunch of lists on a legal pad in front of his computer, watercolor”

The most interesting teams in each 10 of KenPom (1-100)

I did this last year but it might require an explanation. What I’m looking for is a team that stands out in some manner from the field. Is this a team who really, really needs a big year? Is it a team in rebuilding mode? Someone with a lot to prove? Really, it could be a wide variety of things left up to my brain to decipher, so take it for what it’s worth. I’ve tried hard to have a different reason/reasons for each ten, but some of them bleed together, of course.

1-10. Purdue. Well, why not start with #1 overall? This is arguably the single most interesting team in America because of what they’ve got to prove. They have the returning National Player of the Year and return 84% of minutes from a 1 seed. The last 1 seed to return >75% of their minutes was 2007-08 Kansas, who won the title. It never, ever happens. But what also never happens is losing to a 16 seed with the NPOY and arguably the best team Purdue had put on the court in nearly 30 years. How they follow that up is going to be fascinating to watch, no matter where you fall on the spectrum with your level of respect for this program.

11-20. Texas. This is a totally different story than the above but the “prove something” principle still exists. Texas enters 2023-24 with a different coach than they expected to have for the entirety of the 2020s. I laid out in my Big 12 preview that I need more data on HC Rodney Terry to actually find him trustworthy in this specific position. There’s a very real path to this being a top-5 team because the roster is very, very talented. There is also a path to Terry not having the juice and these guys slugging their way to an 8 seed and a disappointing season. I simply don’t know what’s most likely.

21-30. UCLA. Per Torvik, only two teams - Notre Dame and St. Francis (PA) - have a lower amount of college basketball experience on their roster than UCLA. The day one starting lineup goes SO/FR/JR/FR/SO; the bench options beyond backup C Kenneth Nwuba are all freshmen or sophomores. In the portal era, this is an incredibly young team. More interesting yet is that the top three recruits are all international gets, the best of which is a 7’3” giant named Aday Mara. Along with Kentucky I feel like I’m least assured of where this team eventually ends up.

31-40. Florida Atlantic. Not sure who else it would be, other than the team every media member is desperate to rank top 10 while almost every metrics site has outside of their top 20. This is the ultimate litmus test for how much the NCAA Tournament really matters. If FAU had lost that Round of 64 game to Memphis, would they be in this year’s AP Top 25? Reasonable minds might say yes, but who knows.

41-50. New Mexico. This is a really old basketball team that is devoted to midrange excellence and at some point I’ve got to admit I love it. What UNM does offensively goes against most statistical ideals, but both Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House are simply tremendous shooters. I think they have no fewer than four legitimate plus offensive options (House, Mashburn, Nelly Junior Joseph, Isaac Mushila) with a plausible fifth in Jemarl Baker. Can they stop a soul on defense? Appears unlikely, but I look forward to finding out.

51-60. Nebraska. This will be an interesting test of if talent still matters in the portal era (it does, but perhaps not quite as much) or if experience has the upper hand. I have no idea if Fred Hoiberg is really on the hot seat and don’t care, but this Nebraska offense projects to be a delight to watch. You remember Keisei Tominaga, but the pieces Hoiberg pulled in the portal, all older guys, are seriously intriguing. Rienk Mast was a fabulous center at Bradley. Brice Williams was one of the most underrated scorers out there at Charlotte. Josiah Allick and Jarron Coleman were very good at lower levels. The only high-major athletes on this roster are Tominaga and Juwan Gary, though. Is that too much to overcome in a Big Ten where their only current recruiting peer is Northwestern?

61-70. West Virginia. Explained at length in yesterday’s Big 12 preview, but anything from looking up in late March and seeing this team in the Sweet Sixteen to getting to early March and watching them go 3-15 in Big 12 play is possible. The machinations of the coaching search that may follow are plentiful as well.

71-80. Loyola Chicago. Also explained in the A-10 preview, but this is a great test of the rubber band philosophy. Loyola underachieved their preseason KenPom expectation harder than anyone else last year. Really, only one team (2021-22 Milwaukee) has collapsed as badly as they did. Of the 14 preseason top 200 teams that blew it somewhat close to Loyola’s level, they improved the next year by an average of 8 wins. I wouldn’t be surprised if Loyola made that 10+.

81-90. Florida State. This is a very weird roster that contains some of the most annoying to watch players in recent history because of talent versus production (Primo Spears, Cam’Ron Fletcher), former star recruits that have yet to hack it at D-1 (Baba Miller, De’Ante Green), and actually very interesting pieces (Jalen Warley, Jamir Watkins, Chandler Jackson) that could make this FSU side a pretty good team. I think Leonard Hamilton is pretty obviously on retirement watch, but at the same time I can’t picture him wanting to go out if FSU goes 7-13 in the ACC or something. I don’t like much about either side of the ball on paper, but at the same time, all it takes is for the production to finally equal the talent for this to be a Tournament team.

91-100. Charleston. I’m fully in the tank for the system that Charleston runs, so that’s one thing. I’m also just curious to see how they follow up one of the greatest years the school has ever seen on the hardwood. Pat Kelsey’s transfer strategy is also unlike anyone else in this top 100, which is that he looks for relatively close corollaries to his system (West Liberty and Nova Southeastern this year) and plucks transfers from those rosters. I like it, but if Kelsey’s really about it Charleston will average 90+ PPG this year. Let’s do this, Pat.

The 2023-24 Weight Room Teams

Basically, this is a list of teams that will Tush Push you to death. They’re calling weight room on the low block, on the boards, and everywhere. Get too close and you will get your shot blocked into the fourth row. Attempting to out-physical these teams is not recommended by any certified doctor.

Houston. This is the inspiration for the list: a team that ranks #2 in 2PT% allowed, #1 in OREB%, #21 in defensive TO%, #2 in Block%, and #1 overall over the last three years. Every player that comes through Houston looks like the Iron Giant. I am rarely convinced they can shoot a basketball but I’m always assured that they will beat the hell out of the opponent.

Baylor. #4 in OREB%, #12 in TO% forced, and they can shoot the house down from outside. I do not recommend getting in a bar brawl with them, but I look forward to them playing Houston.

Tennessee. Nasty group. Very nasty - they were hitting the Duke players like DOGS. It was very unfair to Duke. Is it legal, I don’t know, but they are pushing and shoving with those big Europeans and it is not very nice.

Texas A&M. Get out of their way. They are mean and large and hurtful.

Arizona. You may have been swayed differently last March by a team that completely turtled in the postseason, but under Tommy Lloyd these guys beat and bang on both sides of the ball and it is deeply unenjoyable to play them.

Memphis. This is the only reason why it’s a shame Memphis didn’t get to go to the Big 12: they won’t play Houston anymore. I loved that rivalry because it was two teams who wanted to demolish each other until they were a fine dust.

Connecticut. Yeah, they can shoot it very well, but I think people underrated how physical and brutal they could be last year. There’s no more Sanogo but Donovan Clingan is deceptively strong and it seems like every 6’5” player Dan Hurley has recruited has been unnaturally hard to get around.

Oklahoma State. Can they score? No. Never. Will you score against them? No, never.

Grambling State. I would hate playing these guys so much if I were a fellow SWAC team. They rank 5th in 2PT% allowed post-COVID, 7th in offensive FT Rate, 47th in defensive TO%, and are the rare team to rank top 10 in offensive FT rate while ranking bottom 15 in defensive. Playing them is like playing against an angry bear.

POTENTIAL BONUS: California. I hated the Mark Fox teams badly. The good news is he’s been replaced with Mark Madsen, a former bruiser himself who oversaw a Utah Valley program that decimated opposing offenses. In order: 9th in 2PT% allowed, 9th in offensive FTR, 75th in OREB%, 86th in DREB%, and one of the very best defenses in America. If that style holds at all at Cal this year they’re going to stand out big time when they play the less physical (Washington), less serious (Arizona State), less nasty (Stanford) teams on the schedule.

The 2023-24 Shooters Shooting Teams

This is a very unscientific list: take the members of your roster, see what they shot last year, and figure out which teams have the most shooting talent on the roster. This is ranked by expected eFG%, with a minimum of 500 2PT attempts taken last year.

1. Creighton (58.7%)

2. Wright State (57.9%)

3. Connecticut (56.1%)

4. Toledo (56.1%)

5. Wake Forest (55.7%)

6. Florida (55.5%)

7. Kansas (55.4%)

8. FAU (55.4%)

9. Colgate (55.3%)

10. Eastern Washington (55.1%)

Minus Florida - I’ll believe it when I see it - this list mostly tracks. I think I’m especially confident in Creighton, Wake, and Colgate to hit those marks. A very honorable mention to Indiana State, who projects to be top 15, as well as UMass Lowell. Dishonorable mention to UMass, who projects 359th and is the only team inside the KenPom top 300 to be that low.

Havoc Ball Teams

What I’m looking for here is pretty simple: teams that force a ton of turnovers and block/alter a lot of shots inside the perimeter. The more reliable piece here is two-point defense as a whole instead of just Block%, so I went with that. But yeah, very simple formula: 2PT% allowed - defensive TO% = Havoc. The lower, the better, which is a little contradictory but what can you do. Quick note: I only considered teams whose coaches have been at their current school for at least two years.

2023-24 Havoc Ball, based on 2021-23 numbers:

1. Houston, Havoc Rating of 22

2. Tennessee, 23.1

3. Oklahoma State, 23.5

4. Merrimack, 24.4

5. Grambling State, 24.7

6. Arizona State, 24.8

7. Texas A&M, 25.2

8. UConn, 25.3

9. Iowa State, 25.3

10. Texas Tech, 25.6

What I find most interesting here are the teams doing it at much lower levels alongside the big boys. Both Merrimack and Grambling State have nasty defensive systems that were the best defenses by a mile in their respective leagues a year ago. Merrimack prevents open threes and forces turnovers better than nearly anyone else in the nation, while Grambling fully eliminates spacing of any kind on defense and pulled off wins over Colorado and Vanderbilt last season.

Texas Tech is here on a technicality: their coach (Mark Adams) is gone, but the coach they replaced him with (Grant McCasland) oversaw a top-15 team in Havoc in North Texas. I like what they’re doing a lot.

The 10 most interesting mid-majors of 2023-24

No intro needed for this one. This is not the best, but rather the ones I’m most intrigued by.

1. Saint Mary’s. They were originally #2, but being voted #1 in the WCC Preseason Poll is fascinating to me. That many people are ready to put them ahead of Gonzaga, the forever favorite in this conference? Let’s see if they can live up to the hype.

2. San Diego State. I mean there is literally only one way to top last season. I don’t think they can do it, but I’m very ready to see a full season of SDSU getting the national respect they’ve long deserved and how they handle it.

3. New Mexico. This is covered in the MWC preview, but this is the most I have ever been interested in a Richard Pitino-coached team. They are defiantly old-school, but will being that way cost them a game they should’ve won? For a team that figures to enter the season firmly in bubble talks I gotta know how it goes.

4. Loyola Chicago. No team more fully represents the possibilities of the Rubber Band Effect than this one. Let’s see how it goes.

5. Dayton. I don’t know if non-A10 people or non-CBB obsessives are really aware of it on a surface level, but there is a large contingent of Dayton fans that are fully out on Anthony Grant. The W-L record is largely fine - 110-47 since 2018-19 - but the last three coaches have all made at least two NCAA Tournaments. Anthony Grant would have made the 2020 edition had it happened, but that’s just one bid across seven seasons. The Atlantic 10 is at a historic low point in terms of quality. Can they finally take advantage, and can Grant get the Dayton fans off his back?

6. Duquesne. I like these guys a lot and will talk about them more later in this post, but they have the best shot they’ve possibly ever had in the modern era to make their first NCAA Tournament since 1977.

7. Yale. I think this has potential to be the best Ivy League squad since 2015-16 Yale, who won a game as a 12 seed and pushed Duke to the brink in the Round of 32. They’re old and very, very good. Something like 26 wins entering the NCAA Tournament is a plausible outcome.

8. Charleston. How in the world do you follow up 31-4 and being in the AP Poll for several weeks? More shockingly, Pat Kelsey came back instead of taking a bigger, more prolific job. A lot about this team and this situation is unusual, which makes me excited to see what they can do this year.

9. Liberty. Always intriguing as long as Ritchie McKay is there, this represents a chance for them to instantly win the C-USA in Year One. That’s fun.

10. Samford. Bucky Ball is the biggest threat to a Furman repeat.

The Indeed Dot Com Teams of the Year

This is a silly list, but you might as well know about it: the ten oldest teams of 2023-24, per Torvik. The only restriction: every team listed is within Torvik’s top 300.

1. UNC Asheville, 2.97 average years of experience

2. Portland State, 2.96

3. Illinois State, 2.96

4. Winthrop, 2.94

5. Niagara, 2.9

6. Nebraska, 2.88

7. FGCU, 2.84

8. Sacred Heart, 2.84

9. James Madison, 2.81

10. Memphis, 2.79

The Portal Power Teams of the Year

Per Torvik, these are the teams who added the most Transfer Points, aka the highest amount of value, via the transfer portal.

1. McNeese State, 533 points

2. St. John’s, 468

3. Memphis, 466

4. New Mexico State, 459

5. LSU, 441

6. Austin Peay, 413

7. Illinois Chicago, 373

8. High Point, 357

9. Missouri, 352

10. Youngstown State, 350

I find this interesting for one reason: the ten teams are collectively expected to win 163 games with a conference record of 91-89. That doesn’t include preseason tournaments, conference tournaments, postseason play, etc. I think we can read more into that conference record for the following reason: the previous leaders in transfer points have not had a ton of success.

2022-23 top 10: Missouri, Southern Miss, Sac State, Georgetown, Bryant, UNLV, NW State, Chicago State, UTEP, Georgia: 170 total wins, 75-89 conference record

2021-22 top 10: Robert Morris, South Alabama, Texas, TCU, Tennessee State, FGCU, Charleston, Iowa State, UNLV, NC Central; 185 total wins, 83-91 conference record

Of the last 20 teams to be surveyed, just four made the NCAA Tournament. Perhaps more concerning for those in one-bid conferences is that the 11 teams in single-bid leagues who ranked in the transfer points top 10 all failed to make the NCAA Tournament. Teams who were either in a Big Six league or a higher-end mid-major (aka, the Mountain West) saw more success. That could be good news for all of St. John’s, Memphis, LSU, and Missouri. It might be less-good news for the other six teams.

The highest-variance teams of the year

Here’s a simple list: the ten teams, those ranked 201st or lower in the consensus excluded, that have the highest range between top and bottom in their computer metrics.

1. Oral Roberts (52.42 standard deviation; high of 104th, low of 206th)

2. Toledo (51.56 STDEV; high of 99th, low of 224th)

3. Youngstown State (49.2 STDEV; high of 134th, low of 248th)

4. Portland (41.13 STDEV; high of 147th, low of 240th)

5. Penn State (39.31 STDEV; high of 73rd, low of 157th)

6. San Jose State (38.7 STDEV; high of 105th, low of 195th)

7. Santa Clara (37.5 STDEV; high of 103rd, low of 193rd)

8. Penn (36.85 STDEV; high of 160th, low of 243rd)

9. South Alabama (35.29 STDEV; high of 133rd, low of 212th)

10. Western Kentucky (35.19 STDEV; high of 130th, low of 215th)

Given that three programs have new coaches and a couple others are very transfer-heavy, this largely makes sense. Here’s some other numbers of interest. The top standard deviation teams in each range of the consensus, with the AP and Coaches Polls included for relevant teams:

• 1-10: Creighton (5.71 STDEV; high of 4th, low of 20th)

• 11-25: Florida Atlantic (13.75 STDEV; high of 9th, low of 42nd)

• 26-50: Miami (17.5 STDEV; high of 13th, low of 49th)

• 51-75: Ole Miss (18.17 STDEV; high of 39th, low of 82nd)

• 76-100: Penn State (already covered), so North Texas (23.48 STDEV; high of 72nd, low of 125th)

The programs with the best (and worst) records of overachieving

BEST (min. 3 of last 4 seasons above preseason expectation)

1. Sam Houston State (+7.98)

2. Utah Valley (+7.9)

3. Florida Atlantic (+7.64)

4. Northwestern State (+7.57)

5. San Jose State (6.75)

6. Yale (+6.71)

7. Grambling State (+6.64)

8. Alcorn State (+6.63)

9. North Texas (+6.56)

10. Iona (+6.1)

WORST (min. 3 of last 4 below)

1. Louisville (-13.1)

2. Florida State (-10.6)

3. Georgetown (-8.92)

4. South Carolina (-8.62)

5. Notre Dame (-8.41)

6. Ole Miss (-7.67)

7. Tulsa (-7.63)

8. Syracuse (-6.6)

9. Evansville (-6.47)

10. Georgia Tech (-6.12)

Now, the teams who retain the same coaches from last season, but with previous minimum restrictions removed.

1. Charleston (+9.27)

2. Chicago State (+8.81)

3. South Alabama (+8.31)

4. Arkansas Pine Bluff (+7.73)

5. Florida Atlantic (+7.64)

6. New Mexico (+7.14)

7. San Jose State (+6.75)

8. Yale (+6.71)

9. Grambling State (+6.64)

10. Alcorn State (+6.63)

Here’s the flipside:

1. Louisville (-13.15)

2. Florida State (-10.6)

3. Loyola Chicago (-9.12)

4. South Carolina (-8.61)

5. Tulsa (-7.63)

6. Virginia (-5.88)

7. Rhode Island (-5.81)

8. Boston College (-5.72)

9. Northeastern (-5.48)

10. South Dakota (-5.34)

How about another list? These are the top 10 overachieving coaches this past offseason who moved jobs; the coach’s previous overachieving average is in parentheses. If you’d like to consider this a list of Coaches To Watch For, go for it.

1. Jason Hooten (New Mexico State) (+7.98 at Sam Houston State)

2. Mark Madsen (California) (+7.9 at Utah Valley)

3. Corey Gipson (Austin Peay) (+7.57 at Northwestern State)

4. Grant McCasland (Texas Tech) (+6.56 at North Texas)

5. Rick Pitino (St. John’s) (+6.1 at Iona)

6. Steve Lutz (Western Kentucky) (+5.74 at Texas A&M Corpus Christi)

7. Amir Abdur-Rahim (South Florida) (+5.21 at Kennesaw State)

8. Ryan Odom (VCU) (+5.18 at Utah State)

9. Danny Sprinkle (Utah State) (+4.52 at Montana State)

10. Mike Rhoades (Penn State) (+4.47 at VCU)

Lastly, one final list for Friend of the Substack Jon Fendler: the 10 best coaches who changed teams this offseason and their ATS record the last two years.

1. Mark Madsen (California), 41-23 ATS (64.1%)

2. Jason Hooten (New Mexico State), 37-21-2 ATS (63.8%)

3. Steve Lutz (Western Kentucky), 39-23 ATS (62.9%)

4. Micah Shrewsberry (Notre Dame), 41-25-2 ATS (62.1%)

5. Grant McCasland (Texas Tech), 39-26-1 ATS (60%)

6. Amir Abdur-Rahim (South Florida), 34-24-1 ATS (58.6%)

7. Ryan Odom (VCU), 38-28-1 ATS (57.6%)

8. Danny Sprinkle (Utah State), 36-27-3 ATS (57.1%)

9. Mike Rhoades (Penn State), 37-29-1 ATS (56.1%)

10. Rick Pitino (St. John’s), 37-31 ATS (54.4%)

The question everyone is asking, of course: what about the lowest-ranked coach in this silly metric to willingly change jobs this season without getting fired? That would be Rob Jeter, who left Western Illinois for Southern Utah with an ATS record of 26-30-1. Here’s hoping it works out better for him going forward.

10 teams I’m in on…

Houston. This probably seems silly, as Houston is a consensus top-five metrics team and sits 6th in the AP Poll. Let me explain. This entire offseason, the whole of the Big 12 discussion has centered around Kansas and what they’re going to do to the conference with arguably the best roster in the sport. Let me remind you that Houston has been a top-five team three straight years, has won more NCAA Tournament games in that timespan than KU (9 > 8), and projects to have two of the most valuable players in the sport in Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts. I am very, very high on Houston and believe they’re one of the three best teams in college basketball on night one. Kansas is going to have to fight for the Big 12 if they want it.

Baylor. Back-to-back Big 12 teams! Not intentional, really. I wouldn’t even say I’m dramatically in on these guys, especially when Ken’s site has them #7 overall. I’ve got them #12 in my not-very-scientific poll. But maybe I am pretty far in when I see they’re #20 in the AP Poll and #24 in Torvik. Neither are things I totally get. This is a thinner roster than normal but they’ve got no fewer than seven very trustworthy players on opening night, with the chance to develop an eighth via one of two blue-chip freshmen on the bench. The scoring duo of Jalen Bridges and RayJ Dennis is insanely good. I’m betting on JTT being back to what he was two years ago as well. Also, the last four Baylor teams have all been top-20 units. I don’t get why AP voters are this down on such a proven concept that’s normally catnip for them.

Colorado. Top 25 team. A low-end top 25 team, but top 25 nonetheless. This is a great mix of experience, a quality defensive system that Tad Boyle runs every year, a huge homecourt advantage, and multiple plus scorers to go with the highest-rated recruit in program history in freshman Cody Williams. It blows my mind that WISCONSIN got more AP Poll votes than these guys did.

Illinois. Borderline top-15 team. I am betting on two things: that Brad Underwood did not suddenly forget how to be a really good basketball coach and that Illinois’s shooting and overall offensive process is going to be much improved. Getting rid of Skyy Clark is a giant addition by subtraction.

California. I thought this would be a very popular ‘in’ team and it may still be, but they’re barely inside Torvik’s top 100 and in the 140s on KenPom. Maybe I’m in too deep because I love Mark Madsen and everything he does as a coach, but this is a borderline top-70 team to me that’s going to be seriously contending for an NIT bid in year one. Seeing them ranked so far behind Arizona State, a team they have a superior roster and coach to, makes me feel as if I am taking crazy pills.

Syracuse. Teams with the combination of recruiting talent and on-court experience (aka, no one is a true freshman) that Syracuse has are rarely abject. I think they’re being penalized for the late capitalism years Jim Boeheim oversaw. I don’t know that a computer model can estimate just how nice it has to be to be running something resembling a defense again. I’d be shocked if they’re not a top-100 team at year’s end. Really, I think they finish top-80, which means they should be a top-10 ACC team. That’s a real improvement and a step up in Year One. I expect them to pull off a huge upset somewhere along the line, though this also comes with the likelihood that they drop at least 2-3 stinkers because of the coaching/system transition.

Duquesne. This is a plausible top-50 offense with a defense that stands to be far improved from last year’s by way of acquiring guys like Dusan Mahorcic and Andrei Savrasov via the portal. If those two things happen this is a top-65/70 team in the sport in an Atlantic 10 still at its historic low point.

UC Santa Barbara. I was shocked to see that UCSB sits fourth via a consensus of the Big Four metrics sites (KenPom, Torvik, EvanMiya, Haslametrics). I’ve got them #2 with a real shot at #1 if Long Beach State fails to capitalize on what should be a slightly down year for UC Irvine.

Arkansas State. Similar thing here. Arkansas State sits fifth in the metrics consensus among Sun Belt teams; I have them #2. I am a huge believer in Bryan Hodgson and he massively upgraded the talent on this roster over the offseason. A top-130 finish is not insane to think about, which would be the school’s first since 2016-17 (when Grant McCasland was HC) and just their second since 1998-99. If that happens Hodgson might be gone after one year, we’ll see.

South Dakota State. Top-100 team in the sport, but for whatever reason no one has them in their top 100. This is going to be a fabulous offensive team even with serious negative schedule adjustments, and they should be more competent on the defensive end than they’ve been in previous years under Eric Henderson. Not a 13 seed you want to see in your bracket come March.

…and 10 teams I’m ‘out’ on

Florida Atlantic. I’ve already spilled enough proverbial ink here. All I’ll add is that if you really, seriously believe this is a top-10 team - and some believe it’s top-5 - you are betting that a team with no players in any 2024 NBA Draft big board I have seen to date is going to suddenly take another leap beyond the one they already took while facing a harder schedule from November to March. When teams take another jump at the mid-major level, they either have legitimate NBA players on the roster (2013-14 Wichita State) or have a lottery pick who happens to be the coach’s son (2013-14 Creighton). I’m seeing neither here. It would be awesome if they were an actual top 5-10 team because that’s new blood and a great story. I just do not believe in it happening whatsoever. They might be an 8/9 seed two years in a row, which is still a great achievement.

Miami (FL). If Miami loses that Round of 64 game to Drake, is this an AP Top 25 team? The answer is probably still yes, but not a top-15 group. Their in-season metrics last year were pretty nasty and they were mighty lucky to even see the Round of 32. That’s before they lost their two best players in Jordan Miller and Isaiah Wong. I still think this will be a pretty good group but it’s fine if they just finish 36th or something on KenPom.

Wisconsin. The problem with betting on returning production is assuming that said returning production was very good in the first place. As such, pardon me if I have a hard time getting excited over a team that returns 93% of scoring from the worst Wisconsin offense in 25 years. Sure, they’re older, but this is the same team that ranked 350th in ShotQuality’s shot selection metric last year, never gets free throws, can’t produce second-chance opportunities, and has two players on the entire roster that can make somewhat difficult shots. I’m very low on these guys and would struggle to shove them in a top 40. Also, they are beating Tennessee on November 10 because the Kohl Center is the scariest and stupidest place on Earth, so get ready.

Xavier. I cannot believe they are 6th in the Big East poll. For real? The two best players on this roster are unlikely to play at all in the 2023-24 season. The two big gets via the portal are atrocious perimeter defenders. ShotQuality had them as winning five games more than they should have last year. This is one of the easiest regression candidates on the books to me, even without getting into some Rubber Band Effect stuff.

Missouri. Another basic regression candidate; they might actually be better analytics-wise but they are not going 9-1 in games decided by six or less again. They’re also not shooting 54% from deep in games within six points in the final five minutes again. Prepare yourself for a Mizzou team 15+ spots ahead of where it was on metrics sites last year but with seven fewer wins.

Boise State. This is not a bet against Leon Rice at all, one of the best underdog coaches in the entire sport. This is a bet that this isn’t a very athletic roster in a league that’s really improved its talent level the last few years. I want to be wrong but I think they’re finishing fifth in the league.

Rutgers. Horrid shooting and scoring roster with possibly the worst starting backcourt in the Big Ten alongside Minnesota. The defense will probably be one of the 15 best in the sport yet again, but they are straight up going to score no points at all against like half of the teams in this league.

West Virginia. This was before RaeQuan Battle’s waiver was denied, for the record. I was baffled that WVU was included in Lunardi’s most recent bracketology piece before the start of the year. Sure, it might work out…or this roster could be exactly what it looks like on paper, which is a roster with six playable guys on it pre-injuries that’s helmed by an interim coach who everyone believes is a dead man walking. Jesse Edwards is enough to keep things afloat but this feels like a team that finishes right at 88th on KenPom at year’s end.

Arizona State. SIXTH in the preseason poll for the Pac-12. SIXTH. Yeah man I’m really ready to believe that Dan Hurley’s goofus brother can squeeze an NCAA Tournament appearance out of a roster with one good shooter on it and one of the least creative offensive systems in America. He’s got this. Come on. When these guys play Washington, regardless of arena, it should be treated like a COVID game. Don’t let anyone in that arena. One misplaced shot attempt could kill a spectator.

Morehead State. This feels unfair given that preseason OVC POTY Mark Freeman is now out with a wrist injury, but I did not understand them being a unanimous OVC fave even with him available. SIU Edwardsville has a better roster.

Lastly, the Stats by Will Top 25

I scrambled this one up fairly quickly this week, maybe about a 20-minute research project. Treat it with all the seriousness that implies.

1. Purdue

2. Kansas

3. Houston

4. Duke

5. Creighton

6. Tennessee

7. Connecticut

8. Marquette

9. Michigan State

10. Arizona

11. Gonzaga

12. Baylor

13. Texas A&M

14. North Carolina

15. Texas

16. Illinois

17. Arkansas

18. Villanova

19. USC

20. St. Mary’s (CA)

21. Kentucky

22. Auburn

23. Alabama

24. TCU

25. Colorado

OTHERS RECEIVING VOTES: Maryland, Florida Atlantic, Memphis, Florida, UCLA, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Kansas State, Miami (FL), San Diego State. No order here.