2023-24 Tennessee basketball preview: schedule analysis

Life is all about over-analyzing a slate of dates, is it not

PREVIOUSLY: Backcourt, frontcourt.

“Tennessee Volunteers basketball players working together on a schedule, watercolor”

Tennessee, a preseason top 10 team by basically every metric, will play at least 31 basketball games this year. Technically, they will play no fewer than 32 because every SEC team makes the conference tournament. I imagine as you imagine that they will play more than 32 this year, but the 31 games below are the only ones currently scheduled.

What we’re doing here is breaking down the schedule into two parts - non-conference and SEC - and breaking down those two halves even further. I’ve also included a shorter version of the schedule at the end that’s more calendar-based, because why not.

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NON-CONFERENCE

THE BIGGEST OF THE BIG

These are preseason top 25 teams either on Torvik or KenPom.

• November 10: Wisconsin (road)

• November 21: Purdue or Gonzaga (Maui Invitational)*

• November 22: Kansas, UCLA, or Marquette (Maui Invitational)*

• November 29: North Carolina (road)

• December 9: Illinois (home)

Tennessee projects to play five non-conference games against preseason top-25 competition before they get to SEC play, where they play eight games against preseason top-25 competition. Yeesh. The good news is that you are going to get a boatload of opportunities for Signature Wins and the like; the bad news is that Torvik ranks Tennessee’s overall schedule as the 10th-hardest in the nation and that’s before adding in those second and third Maui games you see above. Only Alabama has a clearly more difficult non-conference slate on the books.

If Tennessee gets through this at 3-2, it is a success. I think Tennessee’s probably an underdog in both true road games and would be a very slight underdog against all of Purdue/Gonzaga/Kansas. If they lose that Purdue/Gonzaga game (we’ll guess they likely beat Syracuse though it’s no lock), they’re probably not playing Kansas anyway because Kansas should make the Maui final.

I think a rational, reasonable goal here is to pick up two wins in Maui: the first game against Syracuse and then one win on November 21 or 22. Obviously, Tennessee and Tennessee fans badly want to win the Maui Invitational, but this is being called the most loaded preseason tournament field in modern history for a reason. 2-1 in Maui (1-1 against the relevant opponents) is good and gives you at least one Top 25 win.

Beyond that, Tennessee probably needs to hold serve against Illinois at home. That’s not a must win but it’s a should win, especially since Tennessee is 11-3 ATS/14-0 overall at home against non-conference opponents over the last two seasons. That puts you at 2-1, which makes the two road games against Wisconsin and UNC the swing pieces. 2-3 is not bad, but it would feel mildly disappointing. All 3-2 does is turn 0-2 on the road into 1-1, but picking up one road win that early in the year would be nice in the resume arsenal.

THE GAMES THAT ARE NOT AS BIG BUT STILL MATTER

These are games featuring team that are ranked in either KenPom or Torvik’s top 100.

• November 20: Syracuse (Maui Invitational)

• December 16: NC State (San Antonio)

These are a pair of neutral-site games against top-100 teams. Neither are even a lock to be on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but both should be decent teams from a decent conference. Syracuse is in Year One of a rebuilding project but has some serious perimeter scoring talent, while NC State is in Year Seven of a building project that did sneak them into the NCAA Tournament last year. I do not particularly enjoy their roster, but it’s not abject by any means.

Tennessee really needs to go 2-0 against this grouping. Neither would be the worst loss in the world, but a loss to NC State in the middle of an otherwise flawless December would be really disappointing. Look at how badly this would stick out like a sore thumb.

Don’t lose that game. Or the Syracuse game. Just go 2-0.

VERY MODERATELY FRISKY OPPONENTS WHO COULD BE GOOD IN THEIR LEAGUES BUT ARE LIKELY OVERMATCHED HERE

These are games featuring an opponent in KenPom or Torvik’s top 200.

• December 5: George Mason (home)

Well, this feels stupid to have this section, but whatever. Tennessee is going to be heavily favored, but this is the only home buy game where Tennessee likely won’t be a 20+ point favorite. George Mason projects to have a fairly solid roster in a decent conference (the Atlantic 10), one that is loaded with juniors and seniors and projects to have a pretty good defense. That being said, the returners here shot 31% from three last year and that probably is not gonna fly against Tennessee’s defense. Go 1-0.

THE SCHOOL SUPPLY GAMES

These are games against teams ranked outside of the top 200, AKA games that Tennessee generally lets you attend if you bring school supplies or canned foods for various charities.

• November 6: Tennessee Tech (home)

• November 14: Wofford (home)

• November 22: Chaminade (Maui Invitational)*

• December 12: Georgia Southern (home)

• December 21: Tarleton State (home)

• January 2: Norfolk State (home)

These are all games that Tennessee is going to be a gigantic favorite in. The Chaminade game only happens if Tennessee goes 0-2 in their first two in Maui, so let’s not consider that at all. Focusing on the home games, Tennessee should obviously go 5-0 here. KenPom offers an expected scoring margin of +120 here and I would take the over if I liked betting at all. They’re 8-3 ATS when favored by 20+ at home the last two seasons, and since 2018-19, Tennessee is the second-greatest performer (Houston) in America against Quadrant 4 competition.

As such, in terms of game-to-game here I’m mostly just looking to see if any of these teams have a player or a side of the ball that stands out as a potential bugaboo. I don’t think Wofford in Year Zero has any juice here. I love Robert Jones at Norfolk State but they project to be at a massive athletic disadvantage. Georgia Southern got Eugene Brown III from Ohio State, but every time I’ve looked at their roster I’ve struggled to figure out how they would finish top 10 in the 14-team Sun Belt.

That leaves Tennessee Tech and Tarleton State, and of those I’m more confident in Tarleton being a slight annoyance. Tech is far from abject and should have some decent talent on their roster this year, particularly Jayvis Harvey, but they cannot score inside and will get demolished on the boards. Tarleton has to replace a good bit of talent, but this program forces tons of turnovers and creates a lot of havoc on defense every year. It can be a pretty frustrating system to play against if you’re not prepped for it. I’d guess it causes Tennessee some heartburn for maybe 15 minutes, mostly because it’s the pre-Christmas game and the players are staring down a near two-week break as soon as it concludes. Again, 5-0, make the kids happy.

CONFERENCE

THE BIGGEST OF THE BIG

SMALL ADJUSTMENT: These are games listed as Tier A by KenPom, AKA what his system anticipates as Quadrant 1 games, AND Quadrant 1 by Torvik. Buckle up.

• January 10: Mississippi State (road)

• January 20: Alabama (home)

• February 3: Kentucky (road)

• February 10: Texas A&M (road)

• February 14: Arkansas (road)

• February 20: Missouri (road)

• February 24: Texas A&M (home)

• February 28: Auburn (home)

• March 2: Alabama (road)

• March 9: Kentucky (home)

I be like dang. That’s over half of the conference schedule that should be Quadrant 1 games. At minimum Tennessee looks like they’re gonna play 15 of 31 games against Q1 competition, which means the real number could end up being 17 of 31 or thereabouts. All of Tennessee’s five expected conference losses (per KenPom) are listed above, which are just the five road games you see excluding Missouri.

There’s been plenty of good Tennessee has done over the years, obviously, but they could stand to score some more signature wins. From 2017-18 to present - six seasons - Tennessee is 49-45 against top-50 competition and 28-26 in the SEC. These are actually really good results given the competition (their Wins Above Bubble on these games ranks 8th-best), but we know the general storylines. When Tennessee loses, the general cause is an offense that goes dormant for minutes at a time and allows the opponent to take over the game. Narrowing it down to post-COVID (‘20-21 to now), Tennessee is still a good 26-21 against the top 50, but their offense has been horrific, rating out 103rd-best. That cannot happen this year.

If Tennessee goes 6-4 or better against this group it’s a great result. Even 5-5 is alright and acceptable, though it eliminates some margin for error in the conference race. Tennessee’s gonna drop some games here and there because everyone does, and Tennessee might drop a home game this year. Let’s say they do against one of the four listed here; if so, that means you went 3-1 at home and gotta go 3-3 on the road. I think most fans would be willing to sacrifice a home game somewhere if it means you picked off wins against Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Alabama as an example.

STILL BIG BUT NOT MASSIVE

These are games that either Torvik or KenPom has as Tier 1 opponents, but not both, suggesting a disagreement as to that team’s quality.

• January 6: Ole Miss (home)

• January 13: Georgia (road)

• January 16: Florida (home)

• March 6: South Carolina (road)

On one hand, Tennessee really needs to sweep this trio of games; on the other, none of the three are obvious guaranteed wins. Ole Miss’s ceiling is very dependent on a pair of waivers that could determine if their defense is one of the 3-5 best in the nation. (If you’d like a look into the disagreement here, Torvik has them #39 while Ken, who’s much more pessimistic on the waivers, has them #82.) Georgia did look good at times last year, even if I am very doubtful on their overall ceiling. South Carolina cannot possibly be as bad as they were a year ago and look to be much more competent on the whole. Florida is just barely top 25 on Torvik, but most believe they’ll make the Tournament.

I’d call these games squarely on the Quadrant 1/2 cutline. They could go either way, and neither would be that surprising. What you’re probably looking at here is two games against opponents that do crack the NCAA Tournament bubble or better and two that don’t. I think most would pick Ole Miss and Florida as the two, but there’s a scenario where Georgia is a lot better than I expect while Ole Miss struggles under a new HC. Same for South Carolina. Losing one of these games is far from disastrous because all of these teams (well, not SoCar) project as at least somewhat frisky units.

The law of averages suggests 3-1 but you don’t get to where Tennessee wants to be by accepting the average. 4-0. Hit dingers. (3-1 is fine all things considered, but. Dingers.)

SHOULD-WINS

These are games that sit as Tier B on KenPom or Quadrant 2 on Torvik, with full agreement between the two sites.

• January 27: Vanderbilt (road)

• February 7: LSU (home)

Against Quadrant 2-4 opponents since COVID, Tennessee is 45-6 with basically all of the losses either being fluky (last year’s Mizzou/Vandy ones) or at neutral sites. Rarely in these games do they get straight-up whooped, but basketball is a weird sport that produces a billion weird outcomes every single season. Tennessee is not invincible, though no one is.

It goes without saying that in a two-game sample size where you’re something like 6-10 point favorites in each game you need to go 2-0. If Tennessee drops one it’s not the end of the world, but it would serve as an annoying loss on the resume come Selection Sunday. Odds are that one of these games end up being pretty uncomfortable, but the other is a blowout.

DO NOT, UNDER ANY REASONABLE CIRCUMSTANCES, LOSE THESE GAMES

These are games against opponents that are rated as Quadrants 3 or 4 on both sites.

• January 30: South Carolina (home)

• February 17: Vanderbilt (home)

These are the two easiest games, relatively speaking, on the entire conference schedule. By nature of playing in the SEC that still means it’s two home games against low-end top 100ish competition, but Tennessee is 71-1 against any opponent Quadrant 3 or worse over the last six seasons. The lone loss was a random home L to a bad Texas A&M team with by far the worst Tennessee team of that stretch.

Otherwise, it’s been regularly-scheduled demolitions. Tennessee should and likely will go 2-0 against these two. The expected scoring margin, per Torvik, is +26. I think that would feel mildly disappointing given how good Tennessee has been at smoking lower-tier opponents over the years.

CALENDAR-BASED ANALYSIS

NOVEMBER

• November 6: Tennessee Tech (home), must win

• November 10: Wisconsin (road), toss-up

• November 14: Wofford (home), must win

• November 20: Syracuse (Maui), must win

• November 21: Purdue or Gonzaga (Maui), toss-up

• November 22: any of Kansas, Marquette, UCLA, or Chaminade (Maui), toss-up

• November 29: North Carolina (road), toss-up

Well, no two ways around it: this is a brutal, brutal month of basketball. Tennessee only has two somewhat abject opponents here in TTU and Wofford, both obvious wins. The rest are all toughies. Even Syracuse figures to at least end the season in the KenPom top 100.

Here is my thought: sweep the home games, go 2-1 in Maui, and find a way to split those road games. 5-2 would be a genuinely good run of play against this for a preseason top 10 team. Tennessee might drop a few AP Poll spots because voters love having keys jingled in their face and need peanut butter spoons to stay alive, but 5-2 is perfectly fine when it includes three top 100 wins and at least two top 30 ones.

The rough analytical expectation here is something like 4.6-2.4 or 4.7-2.3. 4-3 wouldn’t be a disaster but it would be underwhelming. It means you either went 1-2 in Maui or went 2-1 and then got swept on the road. Because both Wisconsin (proj. UT -1) and North Carolina (proj. UNC -2) figure to be single-possession games I’ve got them as toss-ups. If Tennessee goes 6-1 or better in this month they should be ranked top 5 in the AP Poll. 5-2 probably still keeps them top 10 because of the difficulty of opponent.

DECEMBER

• December 5: George Mason (home), must win

• December 9: Illinois (home), likely win

• December 12: Georgia Southern (home), must win

• December 16: North Carolina State (San Antonio because money), likely win

• December 21: Tarleton State (home), must win

There are two losable games here that would be excusable: Illinois and NCSU. Fans would be well within their right to be annoyed by a loss to either, but it wouldn’t be a disastrous event by any means. Losing both would be, but let’s not consider that for the moment. Tennessee should go 5-0 in the month of December; 4-1 would be disappointing. The toughest game here is obviously Illinois who I think of as a top-20 team, but Tennessee doesn’t get to where they want to be by being scared of playing 2010 Tennessee at home. Hit dingers.

JANUARY

• January 2: Norfolk State (home), must win

• January 6: Ole Miss (home), must win

• January 10: Mississippi State (road), toss-up

• January 13: Georgia (road), likely win

• January 16: Florida (home), likely win

• January 20: Alabama (home), lean to win

• January 27: Vanderbilt (road), lean to win

• January 30: South Carolina (home), must win

This is when the rubber meets the road. Tennessee plays in at worst the second-toughest conference depending on how you feel about the Big 12. The good news is that January only features one preseason top 25 KenPom team; the bad news is the seven opponents not named Norfolk State are all consensus top 100 opponents. I think Tennessee absolutely has to win the bookends here especially since it seems Ole Miss likely won’t get two key waivers that will make or break their defense.

I’ve got road Georgia and home Florida as likely wins. To me, “must win” means I think you’re something like >85% to win that game; they are probably more like 75-80% propositions in my head. These are at least close. Home Alabama was nearly a toss-up but I think Tennessee’s just got a better roster that can overcome the math difference. Road Vandy has revenge stuff at hand for Tennessee, but there has been maybe one or two games since I have been alive at Memorial that were guarantees in either direction. I don’t trust it.

The true toss-up here is Mississippi State. I don’t think Mississippi State is the best (Alabama) or even the second-best (Florida) team that Tennessee would play this month, but this is the first true road game in the SEC and the first road environment Tennessee will have played in since November 29. State’s home court advantage is underrated. A loss wouldn’t surprise me, especially given Chris Jans’ innate ability to muck any game up.

The law of averages suggests 6-2 here, which is fine, but given the remainder of the schedule I say you gotta go 7-1 to be happy. A double is cool but fans come for homers. Do you want to know the terrifying truth…or do you wanna see me sock a few dingers?

FEBRUARY

• February 3: Kentucky (road), lean to loss

• February 7: LSU (home), must win

• February 10: Texas A&M (road), toss-up

• February 14: Arkansas (road), lean to loss

• February 17: Vanderbilt (home), must win

• February 20: Missouri (road), toss-up or lean to win, don’t know which

• February 24: Texas A&M (home), likely win

• February 28: Auburn (home), lean to win

Oy. If you’re keeping score at home:

• Three road games against preseason Top 25 opponents;

• Two home games against preseason Top 25 opponents;

• A road game against a 2022 NCAA Tournament team;

• Two home games against NIT-level teams. Hooray!

That is nasty stuff. Tennessee is going to have plenty of opportunities for signature wins and the like this year, but February was the month last year where a great season suddenly collapsed. The same could be said of 2020-21, which also is somewhat fresh in the mind even though that season was Not Real. I’m sure Tennessee is well aware that they need to come through this February, and the level of depth on the roster is a huge help.

The average expectation here is about 5-3. I think that would be tremendous, because if that happens you’re staring down 11-4 in the SEC against an insanely difficult schedule. That means you’ve picked off at least two Top 25 wins and possibly a third if you drop the Missouri game instead of one of those three toughest ones. If Tennessee escapes this month at 6-2 they genuinely could get a 1 seed before the SEC Tournament begins. That would be a Kansas-level run of play.

One note: I have Texas A&M as a toss-up instead of a lean to loss despite thinking A&M has a better roster than Kentucky. Here’s why: I just think Kentucky and Arkansas’s home environments are scarier to play in. Arkansas especially is a house of horrors for Tennessee and if you catch me predicting a win there in February, please remind me that I am a big stupid moron. Winning in Rupp is more of a bonus than something ever to be expected. A&M’s home court is a tough place to play - they’re 23-12 ATS at home over the last two years - but if I had to pick an environment that frightens me least it’s A&M below Rupp and Bud Walton.

MARCH

• March 2: Alabama (road), lean to loss

• March 6: South Carolina (road), likely win

• March 9: Kentucky (home), likely win

One of the toughest schedules in the nation skids to a halt by playing two preseason Top 25 teams and South Carolina. My God. Anyway, 2-1. If Tennessee goes 3-0, I mean.

SO: Add all that up to your liking. I’ve got Tennessee at 24-7, 13-5 SEC. If they lose one more than they need to in January, make it 23-8, 12-6. The former is better. Hit some homers, fellas.