Stats By Will

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Stats By Will
2023 Sweet Sixteen preview, Thursday

2023 Sweet Sixteen preview, Thursday

The important thing is that everyone plays hard and has fun

Will Warren's avatar
Will Warren
Mar 23, 2023
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Stats By Will
Stats By Will
2023 Sweet Sixteen preview, Thursday
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Let’s get into it.

(7) Michigan State (-1.5) vs. (3) Kansas State, 6:30 PM ET, TBS

KenPom: KSU 51% to win
Torvik: pure toss-up

Well, this is as close as I think it’s reasonably gonna get. Kansas State spent the entire season playing like a 7 seed but getting the close game luck necessary to be a 3; Michigan State played like a 7 and got a 7. The difference in said close game outcomes can be driven by two things:

  1. Luck, obviously. (In games within 10 in the final 6 minutes this year, KSU shot 38% from three while opponents shot 25%. In the rest of their possessions: KSU 33%, opponents 30%.)

  2. Kansas State having a pair of incredible late-game go-to options in Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell.

This is a pair of excellent shot-making backcourts taking on two less-than-excellent rim protection schemes. There isn’t an obvious mismatch in either direction to me, aside from thinking that Tom Izzo is probably a better coach than Jerome Tang. (That’s in no way a slight to Tang but rather an Izzo compliment.) Neither of these teams are three-point reliant, but MSU ranks 6th in 3PT% nationally, and if they’re able to pump up the volume and sustain their hit rate, they could put KSU in a whole very quickly. This KSU team is stronger on defense than offense, and I haven’t been impressive by their ability to take care of the ball on offense whatsoever.

KSU’s games this year have largely come down to two things: can they win the turnover battle and can they survive on the defensive boards? Per EvanMiya, when KSU either holds their opponents to a 24% OREB% or less or wins the turnover margin, they’re 23-2. When they cannot do either they’ve gone 2-7. If MSU forces a lot of one-on-one play from KSU, this could go Izzo’s way as well.

Prediction: Away from home, Michigan State’s shooting has been awful, but Kansas State’s defense has similarly cratered. I can see this one going either way, but ultimately I side with Michigan State 71, Kansas State 67.

I am rooting for: From a Tennessee perspective I think they match up better with Kansas State; from a human perspective I am also rooting for KSU.

THE REST OF THESE ARE PAYWALLED. At $12 for a full year, I consider it well worth it.

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