2023 Sweet Sixteen preview, Thursday
The important thing is that everyone plays hard and has fun
Let’s get into it.
(7) Michigan State (-1.5) vs. (3) Kansas State, 6:30 PM ET, TBS
KenPom: KSU 51% to win
Torvik: pure toss-up
Well, this is as close as I think it’s reasonably gonna get. Kansas State spent the entire season playing like a 7 seed but getting the close game luck necessary to be a 3; Michigan State played like a 7 and got a 7. The difference in said close game outcomes can be driven by two things:
Luck, obviously. (In games within 10 in the final 6 minutes this year, KSU shot 38% from three while opponents shot 25%. In the rest of their possessions: KSU 33%, opponents 30%.)
Kansas State having a pair of incredible late-game go-to options in Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell.
This is a pair of excellent shot-making backcourts taking on two less-than-excellent rim protection schemes. There isn’t an obvious mismatch in either direction to me, aside from thinking that Tom Izzo is probably a better coach than Jerome Tang. (That’s in no way a slight to Tang but rather an Izzo compliment.) Neither of these teams are three-point reliant, but MSU ranks 6th in 3PT% nationally, and if they’re able to pump up the volume and sustain their hit rate, they could put KSU in a whole very quickly. This KSU team is stronger on defense than offense, and I haven’t been impressive by their ability to take care of the ball on offense whatsoever.
KSU’s games this year have largely come down to two things: can they win the turnover battle and can they survive on the defensive boards? Per EvanMiya, when KSU either holds their opponents to a 24% OREB% or less or wins the turnover margin, they’re 23-2. When they cannot do either they’ve gone 2-7. If MSU forces a lot of one-on-one play from KSU, this could go Izzo’s way as well.
Prediction: Away from home, Michigan State’s shooting has been awful, but Kansas State’s defense has similarly cratered. I can see this one going either way, but ultimately I side with Michigan State 71, Kansas State 67.
I am rooting for: From a Tennessee perspective I think they match up better with Kansas State; from a human perspective I am also rooting for KSU.
THE REST OF THESE ARE PAYWALLED. At $12 for a full year, I consider it well worth it.