2024-25 Conference Previews: Big 12
2024-25 Conference Previews: Big 12
Now larger than ever!
Hello! As laid out in the season preview for this newsletter, we’re changing up preview season a little. Previews will be released in alphabetical order, but somewhat differently than usual: one P5 a day, one two-bid(ish) conference a day, and one grab bag of one-bid leagues a day. One of each will be free for all to read. This one is a paid piece, and there’s a link to sign up below.
You can find all of these in the 2024-25 previews section of this website. On with the show.
The Biggest 12, Everyone Is Saying It, Folks, We’ve Never Been Bigger, You’re Hearing It More and More
Tier 1A
Houston
Kansas
Tier 1B
Baylor
Iowa State
Arizona
Tier 2
Texas Tech
BYU
Cincinnati
Kansas State
TCU
Tier 3
West Virginia
UCF
Tier 4
Utah
Arizona State
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Last year there was a weird spat over this conference that involved people getting mad at non-conference schedules. This year four of the top five in the WW Poll have top-50ish non-conference and the two most abhorrent ones are from teams ranked 13th and 16th. Also, everyone in this conference is preseason top-100 at KenPom. I think we’re going to be just fine, people. A little bit of chilling out can do you some good.
This is a strange conference where it’s kind of an open debate as to if you think this is or isn’t the best league in the world this year. I’d have all of the top 5 in a personal top 12 or so, which is more than any other conference can say. The top-end of this conference is pretty well unbeatable. KenPom has the SEC as slightly better because the average team in that conference is better than the average team here. I kind of agree, and certainly, the low-end of the SEC is ahead of the low-end here.
I also think it’s just a dumb debate. Who cares? I am excited and/or legitimately interested to watch pretty much everyone here. 12th-place UCF is bizarre and could be anything. 13th-place Utah has a coach I strongly believe in. 14th-place Arizona State is comedic. 15th-place Oklahoma State has a new, exciting coach. 16th-place Colorado…will probably still beat someone at home that makes you raise your eyebrows. 16th-place WVU beat Texas and Kansas last year. 12-20 Oklahoma State beat BYU by double digits! It’s all possible in the Big 12.
Tier 1 is split into two here because I wanted to make a simple clarification. I would have both of the Tier 1A teams in my personal top-6 nationally, and I have the best team in the Big 12 at #1 overall. Tier 1B would be ranked somewhere around 8-12. They’re secondary national contenders, but primary Big 12 contenders to steal a title somewhere along the line.
The #1 team in the country for me is Houston. “They don’t win in March.” Agreed. If only they were one of three teams in America (UConn and Gonzaga) to have 10+ NCAA Tournament wins post-pandemic and were one of two programs (Gonzaga) to make four straight Sweet Sixteens. If I sounded that stupid I’d simply keep it to myself, but that’s not MY America. Hate aside, this is the most consistent, most regular program out there over the last five years.
Any scenario where Houston is not a top 10 team would be a stunner to me. Any scenario where they aren’t top five would be pretty surprising, too. This is a program that’s finished second three years in a row at KenPom, top five four straight seasons, and top-20 seven in a row. Kelvin Sampson has beaten the KenPom preseason projection nine straight seasons, and he won’t be able to in 2024-25 because for the first time ever, they’re preseason #1.
This is an astonishingly consistent program missing just one thing: a national championship. I think this might be the year. Of the preseason top-25 teams on any metrics site, no team returns more minutes or scoring production than Houston. In terms of on-roster recruiting talent, as weighted by minutes, only UConn, Duke, and UNC rank firmly ahead. The average player has 2.33 years of college experience. They used the transfer portal less than anyone but Purdue among preseason top-15 types. They’ve got four preseason top-100 players per EvanMiya’s ratings, which only Alabama/Iowa State/Arizona can also say.
Even despite losing Jamal Shead, the heart and soul of the last two Houston teams, all feels fine because they return literally everything else of consequence. (Okay, not Damian Dunn, but Dunn was so bad offensively that it’s addition by subtraction.) So much of what’s here is reliable. LJ Cryer is going to hit a lot of shots. Emanuel Sharp will somehow hit more threes when he’s guarded than when he’s open. J’Wan Roberts will be a wrecking ball down low and will happily accept scoring 10 PPG if it means Houston wins 30+ games and makes the Final Four.
For me, this is all about how much you can keep those three on the court together this year. They’re three of the best all-around players in the Big 12, and by association, three of the 50 or so best players in the country. On the 944 possessions where all three were together last year, Houston outscored opponents by a schedule and luck-adjusted 37.6 points per 100 possessions. The defense is the defense, but the offense was one of the very best in America despite just-fine shooting. Shot volume!
This matters because of what the team looked like when any one of those three was out of the game. Most commonly, this was Sharp sitting for Dunn or backup Mylik Wilson, who we’ll cover, but Roberts would also take a backseat to Ramon Walker or occasionally Wilson. Houston had much lower rim gravity and was a much worse ball movement team, even with Shead still generally in the game. These three were on the court together for 40% of Houston possessions last year; if you can get that to an even 50%, it could mean just enough of a difference.
Those three are hammer-locked into their roles: Cryer the dynamic-shooting SG, Sharp the unafraid-shooter SF, Roberts the playmaker PF. But Houston has to sort out center, and more importantly, they’ve got to find a new point guard after Shead graduated. Enter Milos Uzan, the offseason’s single incoming transfer from former Big 12 rival Oklahoma.
Uzan’s 2023-24 numbers don’t jump off the page, and neither do his career numbers: a 98 ORtg on 18% USG, a career 34% hit rate from three, and a good-but-not-great A:TO ratio. He has very positive defensive metrics, which makes sense because he’s a Porter Moser recruit, but nothing as amazing as Shead. Backup Wilson was promising last year in his minutes, but he’s far less of a passer and is an openly bad shooter. So: let’s spin this. Uzan shot 41% from three his freshman year, and both seasons, he’s been very good off-the-dribble. I can see the vision there.
More notable is the on/off impact. Uzan got pigeonholed alongside Javian McCollum at OU last year. When together, both Uzan and McCollum were significantly worse in terms of efficiency. OU’s offense survived, but more thanks to a 37% 3PT hit rate that wasn’t replicated with other lineups. Adjusted for shooting luck, the Uzan + McCollum lineups were 8 points worse per 100 than those with one or the other benched.
When Uzan got time without McCollum, he was a completely different player. This can be seen in the overall numbers:
And in Uzan’s own efficiency. On is Uzan and no McCollum; off is both Uzan AND McCollum together.
That’s what gives me real hope here. The Uzan who isn’t paired with McCollum, a volume scorer who rated as OU’s fifth-best player last year per EvanMiya, was a plus offensive piece that had more assists, shot better from two (54%!) and three (31%), generated more steals, got downhill more frequently, and overall looked much more like a Houston point guard than he may at first glance. Am I fully, 100% convinced this will work? Well, not all the way. But a +5.2 RAPM guy who’s joining a roster where he would’ve been around the 4th-6th best player last year, well, that’s all he really needs to be.
Center is of greater interest. Roberts can do it but rarely does for two reasons: he’s not as good of a rim protector as others and he fouls way more. Assuming Sampson wants to keep fouls down, I get keeping him at the 4 80% of the time with some spot minutes at the 5. This means most center minutes, barring injury, will be split among the gigantic pair of Ja’Vier Francis and JoJo Tugler. I wrote about both extensively this offseason in a Houston piece and wrote about Francis in particular last winter, but this is a numbers blog, so we’ll talk numbers.
The case for Francis: Across his last two seasons, a real argument can be made for Francis as the very best rim protector in college basketball. A +5.9 DBPM in 2022-23 and a +5.6 DBPM last season are both top-5 in the nation. He’s the only player to post back-to-back top-5 DBPM season; the only other players to go +5 or better in both seasons are Donovan Clingan and Tamin Lipsey. (Tennessee’s Jahmai Mashack came extremely close.) Last year, lineups with Francis at center were some of the most insane in modern basketball history.
39.5% 2PT% allowed. 39.5%. Plus, Francis has a severely limited offensive game but one that’s still workable, as he posted a positive Shot Making metric at Synergy and was really good as a P&R roll man last year. Also: 6’8” with a 7’5” wingspan.
The case for Tugler: Is to look at Tugler-at-center lineups as well. Because these, somehow, were significantly better. Even adjusting for 3PT% luck.
Tugler, as a true freshman, outpaced Francis in DBPM (+5.8 to +5.6), had more steals (3.6% Steal% versus 2.8%), and blocked almost as many shots (9% vs. 10.4% of all two-point attempts). He’s arguably a slightly better rebounder. Tugler is significantly lesser than Francis offensively, but he will at least try a floater, which is more than Francis can say. Also: 6’8” with a 7’6” wingspan. Beat that.
The objective case here is that, for better or for worse, both should split minutes again. It’s a real bummer, because in a world where one or the other usurps all the minutes, either would be the likely Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Instead, Sampson gets an embarrassment of defensive riches down low and just has to ride whichever one isn’t in foul trouble and/or is dunking the ball.
We are many words deep and have yet to touch on Terrance Arceneaux, who is a jumper away from being a legitimate two-way threat. That’s your seventh man, and he posted a +6.6 BPM last year. Even Wilson and Walker, albeit lesser bench pieces, are still decent role guys to have around. And, as always with Sampson, there’s the chance a freshman you haven’t heard of yet emerges out of nowhere to be a key eighth man. This is the best roster, and best-fitting roster, in America on night one.
I have Kansas in Tier 1A here and feel like no matter where I go with it I’ll be incorrect. Last year I felt pretty negative about Kansas’s build, with a roster that had very limited shooting options and an overall philosophy that didn’t seem to value shot volume or shot efficiency. What it resulted in was the preseason #1 team falling to a 4 seed and getting demolished in the Round of 32 by a far better Gonzaga side. Going from #1 to #27 in KenPom isn’t quite as bad as what UNC did the year before, but it was an ugly year every KU fan seems eager to forget.