2024-25 Conference Previews: One-bids, vol. 1
America East, ASun, Big Sky, Big South
Hello! As laid out in the season preview for this newsletter, we’re changing up preview season a little. Previews will be released in alphabetical order, but somewhat differently than usual: one P5 a day, one two-bid(ish) conference a day, and one grab bag of one-bid leagues a day. One of each will be free for all to read. This one is a paid piece, and there’s a link to sign up below.
You can find all of these in the 2024-25 previews section of this website. On with the show.
America East
Vermont’s Tier
Vermont
Tier 2
UMass Lowell
Bryant
Tier 3
UMBC
Maine
Albany
Tier 4
New Hampshire
Binghamton
NJIT
Do you think the others get bored of this? Not the coaches, because every coach is a little or a lot psychotic, but, like, non-obsessives. Do you ever get bored looking at the America East every year and knowing Vermont is going to win it? Last year made it eight straight regular season titles for the Catamounts, which is the longest active streak in college basketball to my knowledge. Minus an occasional (2021) blip (2018) in the conference tournament, you can open up your bracket in mid-March knowing you’re going to see Vermont in it as a 13, 14, or 15 seed. It’s comforting, but maybe people want new blood. I don’t really know. Open question.
When you win eight in a row and the gap from you to second in efficiency is the same as the gap from second to sixth, you get your own tier. Vermont has done an understandable if somewhat annoying (for stats purposes, obvi) dance the last two years: serious shakiness in non-conference play where they look like the second or even third-best team in the AE, followed by an America East run where they look like a top-80 team and a 12/13 seed. This year presents a giant problem for the rest of the conference: they are the oldest team with the most returning production and will have a real shot at finishing top-75 nationally.
Unlike previous Vermont elites, this team doesn’t have an obvious alpha on it, which is reflected in a 2023-24 edition that had a top-60 defense but barely scratched out a top-175 offense. The most promising figure in terms of expanding their game is Shamir Bogues, a returning combo guard that has yet to find his shots but is a tremendous rim attacker and Vermont’s best returning shot creator. Adjusted for 3PT% luck, Vermont was 8 points better per 100 possessions with Bogues on the court at the 2 last year. As mentioned, Bogues isn’t a shooter (63% FT, 27% 3PT career), but more of an all-around excellent dude. He posted a +3.8 DBPM last year and was the best defender in the AE; Vermont’s TO margin went from -1.9 per 100 with him off the court to +3.3 with him on, along with a huge jump in FT Rate and OREB%.
If Bogues is the best candidate for the alpha, then Vermont has about five quality candidates for second-in-command. I loved the add of Shy Odom from Howard, a player who had a rough 2023-24 and fell out of favor but posted a 110 ORtg on 25% USG as a freshman. TJ Hurley can handle the ball well and should be able to take some heat off of Bogues. Nick Fiorillo is a secret monster down low and became a dramatically improved defender in conference play last year. TJ Long is sort of a Vermont Santiago Vescovi in that he’s somehow only been in college for four years but feels 28 and runs relentlessly off of off-ball screens and handoffs. He’s the most dynamic shooter on the roster. Jace Roquemore and Ileri Ayo-Faleye are two terrific defensive pieces. When Odom is the duff defensively on your roster you’re in a great spot.
All the nice stuff being said, I feel a little worried about this offense again. Long is the only shooter’s shooter here. Hurley has room to expand in that regard and flashed impressively last year, but that’s two plus shooting options. The current projected starting lineup I’ve seen is Bogues/Long/Hurley/Fiorillo/Ayo-Faleye, which is going to be fabulous defensively but features multiple poor shooters (Ayo-Faleye career 30% on low attempts) and has three guys who want to post up.
Replacing Fiorillo or Ayo-Faleye with Odom would make things worse spacing-wise. Now, the best Vermont looked offensively last year was with Fiorillo and IA-F together, but that also saw the team shoot 40% from three while shooting 32% with all other lineups. This might be another year of an excellent defense and an average offense, which still makes them a very obvious favorite.
Non-Vermont Tier 2 features a pair of teams that probably think they should have won the conference by now, but, you know.
BEHIND THE WALL ($): 39 additional teams previewed!