2024-25 Conference Previews: one-bids, vol. 3

MAAC, MAC, MEAC, NEC

Hello! As laid out in the season preview for this newsletter, we’re changing up preview season a little. Previews will be released in alphabetical order, but somewhat differently than usual: one P5 a day, one two-bid(ish) conference a day, and one grab bag of one-bid leagues a day. One of each will be free for all to read. This one is a paid piece, and there’s a link to sign up below.

You can find all of these in the 2024-25 previews section of this website. On with the show.

MAAC

Tier 1

1. Quinnipiac

Tier 2

2. Fairfield

3. Marist

4. Iona

5. Saint Peter’s

Tier 3

6. Merrimack

7. Rider

8. Mount St. Mary’s

Tier 4

9. Canisius

10. Niagara

11. Sacred Heart

12. Siena

13. Manhattan

This conference has its superfans, notably Sam Federman, but as a weak Southern outsider I have to admit I don’t get it. The famed Saint Peter’s run of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, totaling three wins, represents the entirety of the conference’s NCAAT wins since 2009. This is despite some genuinely good runs of play that saw them finish as high as 13th in the KenPom conference rankings in 2012-13. The departures really haven’t been that severe, as losing Loyola (MD) (Patriot) and Monmouth (CAA) are not marquee basketball programs. It’s mostly been a slow withering of programs that shredded in the 2000s (Manhattan, Siena) with the premier program (Iona) caught in an in-between period.

As such I can’t pick anyone here to finish top 150 in KenPom, which would be the third time that’s happened in seven years after never happening prior to 2018. There’s a clear best team, however, in Quinnipiac, which will try yet again to make their first NCAA Tournament in school history. Tom Pecora (formerly Hofstra, Fordham) took over last year and won the MAAC’s regular season title in Year One, then promptly face-planted in the semifinals by posting their lowest point total (60) of the entire season against Saint Peter’s.

The great news for Pecora and crew is that Amarri Monroe (fka Tice), who posted 14 PPG/7 RPG in MAAC play last year, and Paul Otieno, a top-three rebounder and #1 in ORtg (min. 15% Usage%), elected to return for another go. Per Hoop-Explorer, when Tice and Otieno manned the frontcourt together last year:

That’ll absolutely play. Monroe was a top-three defender in the league last year and erases a ton of mistakes defensively, while Otieno just does his thing quite well. That, plus returning starting PG Savion Lewis (#1 Assist Rate in the MAAC) and SF Alexis Reyes means Pecora brings back 80% of the starting lineup from a 15-5 team. The problem is that 18 PPG scorer Matt Balanc graduated, and Shot Quality’s data pinpointed them as more of a 12-8 or 13-7 MAAC team than 15-5. They could be just as good as they were last year but only go 13-7 or 14-6, which gives me pause. Either way, this is the best-fitting roster returning the highest amount of production.

BEHIND THE WALL ($): A lot more in the way of basketball teams