2024-25 Conference Previews: One-bids, vol. 5
2024-25 Conference Previews: One-bids, vol. 5
SWAC, Sun Belt, Summit League, and the WAC
Hello! As laid out in the season preview for this newsletter, we’re changing up preview season a little. Previews will be released in alphabetical order, but somewhat differently than usual: one P5 a day, one two-bid(ish) conference a day, and one grab bag of one-bid leagues a day. One of each will be free for all to read. This one is a paid piece, and there’s a link to sign up below.
You can find all of these in the 2024-25 previews section of this website. On with the show.
SWAC
Tier 1
Grambling State
Texas Southern
Southern
Bethune-Cookman
Alabama State
Tier 2
Jackson State
Alcorn State
Alabama A&M
Prairie View A&M
Tier 3
Florida A&M
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Tier 4
Mississippi Valley State
Post-COVID, the top four teams in the league all average a ranking somewhere between 254th and 272nd, so traditional ‘tiers’ don’t really make sense as much as loose collections of likely and somewhat less likely contenders. The team that finished second in conference play last year went 1-13 out of it, so anything is plausible.
Of the 31 conferences that still exist even in limited forms, this is inarguably the worst at shooting a basketball. The SWAC has perhaps the most identifiable style of play in the nation: top four in Steal% six straight years, bottom three in offensive efficiency seven straight, #1 or #2 in fouls per game in eight straight, bottom three in 2PT% and FT% in six of seven, top 10 in pace of play in six of seven. They play chaotic, confusing basketball that seems to be more about physical prowess than scoring.
The best at this style the past three seasons, at least by W-L, has been Grambling State, the only team that sits >.500 on their overall record. By efficiency, they’re third-best, and I have concerns about regression to the mean after #19 and #5 finishes in KenPom Luck the last two years. But: beyond one specific player we’ll get to, Grambling likely has the best offensive player in the conference (Kintavious Dozier) and arguably the most balanced product. They’re somehow the only team with a top-4 offense and defense across the last three seasons in the SWAC, so by default, I lean their direction.
This requires a note that “leaning their direction” means a 20-25% chance to actually win the title, though. All of these top five are pretty close to equal. Texas Southern is basically always Here under Johnny Jones, and this year’s roster is the oldest in the conference with a pair of interesting-but-unproven former Big Six guys representing their frontcourt (Kenny Hunter, Grayson Carter). The Jones offensive system (tons of pull-up jumpers and aimless, long possessions) is an awful watch, however. Southern returns an intriguing mix of older starters and has the best defensive system in the conference, one which leads in turnovers and fouls committed the last three seasons by miles. This roster fits Kevin Johnson’s MO well enough, but the lack of obvious scoring may hamstring them again.
Bethune-Cookman and Alabama State are two opposite solutions to the same problem: a lack of wins and a need to Prove It. B-C in year four of Reggie Theus is 26-28 in SWAC play despite generally taking on intriguing Big Six fliers in the portal. This year sees them return 20% of their minutes but adding three former Big Six recruits, headlined for me by Gianni Hunt (you may remember him from Oregon State’s Elite Eight run). Is this the year it works despite a lack of an obvious offensive or defensive agenda? TBD. Bama State under HC Tony Medlock will be headlined again by his son, TJ Medlock, a top-three player in the conference. What it’s also headlined by is three returning starters and a pair of portal pieces that played starting minutes at their previous schools. This is generally either a recipe for a serious step forward or a belated maxing-out of talent that just is what it is.
Tier two features teams that can win this but feature more in the 5% range to do it than the 15%+ range. Jackson State has the best player in the conference, Ole Miss transfer Daeshun Ruffin, who genuinely has the potential to score 25 PPG if the ball is in his hands for long enough. The problem is everything around Ruffin. There’s one player on this entire roster, Shannon Grant, who has played starter’s minutes before…at Florida A&M. I don’t rate much about the Mo Williams offense either. Alcorn State has gone 42-12 in SWAC play the last three years but is staring down a full-on rebuild, with one starter returning and no other players that have played starter-level minutes before in college anywhere. The starting frontcourt may top out at Djahi Binet’s 6’7”, which is a problem for Landon Bussie’s balls-to-the-wall rebounding philosophy.
The back two here of Alabama A&M and Prairie View A&M have similar-enough problems: both run pretty fun defensive schemes, neither can score efficiently to save their lives. I favor Byron Smith over Otis Hughley as coaches, but it’s probably pointless when the two have a combined one (1) player who posted a 100+ Offensive Rating in 2023-24. (Grambling State and Texas Southern have two each. Guess why they’re #1 and #2.) I like Quincy McGriff, formerly of Duquesne and Cal State Northridge, the most of the players on either roster.
Tier 3 are teams where I would be genuinely very surprised to see them win this conference, but a top-five finish feels attainable with good bounces. Florida A&M had one of the strangest offseasons I can remember, where they hired Patrick Crarey out of the NAIA (a coach that may instantly run the most interesting scheme in the conference)…and have spent the months following that hire trashing him in the media, leading to several Board of Trustees resignations. The roster looks dire to me, but Crarey is of interest going forward. Arkansas Pine Bluff runs the only modern Oats-esque offense in the SWAC, but it’s resulted in zero .500 finishes in conference play through three years. I have to say that Alabama without Alabama talent’s a tough watch, but they can give up 100 points on any night.
Tier 4 is Mississippi Valley State, arguably the most hopeless situation I can remember in college basketball. MVSU has real history, and the people who care about their teams care very deeply. Watch any broadcast of theirs and it’s a real joy. Lafayette Stribling, James Green, and Sean Woods all won consistently there through 2012. Since then, it’s been disastrous. They have not won double-digit games in a season in 12 tries. Their best SWAC finish in that time is 7-11. Last year was the nadir, a 1-30 run that saw them finish a full five points off the pace of the second-worst team in the country. This year’s team is older but not better. For the fifth straight season, they’re going to seriously contend for the status of worst team in the country. It’s disheartening to see a genuinely solid SWAC program fall to this level. I hope they cure what ails them soon, because if they don’t, I’m not sure who this is for.
FOUR PREDICTIONS:
Daeshun Ruffin scores 22+ PPG and is your Player of the Year.
This is the year that either Landon Bussie (Alcorn) or Donte Jackson (Grambling) jump to a more prestigious job in the South.
Patrick Crarey (FAMU) also departs but because of an untenable situation.
There is a SWAC game this winter with 80+ combined free throw attempts.
BEHIND THE WALL ($): Well, happy Friday. You got the SWAC for free. Now get the rest