2024-25 Conference Previews: one-bids, vol. 4
Ohio Valley, Patriot, SoCon, Southland
Hello! As laid out in the season preview for this newsletter, we’re changing up preview season a little. Previews will be released in alphabetical order, but somewhat differently than usual: one P5 a day, one two-bid(ish) conference a day, and one grab bag of one-bid leagues a day. One of each will be free for all to read. This one is a paid piece, and there’s a link to sign up below.
You can find all of these in the 2024-25 previews section of this website. On with the show.
Ohio Valley Conference
Tier 1
Little Rock
Morehead State
Tier 2
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois
Southeast Missouri State
Tennessee State
SIU Edwardsville
Tier 3
Lindenwood
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee Tech
Tennessee-Martin
Last year I wrote this:
The continued hollowing-out of this conference over the last two years is deeply sad to observe. I don’t have a ton of thoughts on the conference otherwise, which is a shame because it really was once must-watch TV.
What ended up happening was a pretty exciting four-team race at the top with names old (Morehead), new (Western Illinois, Tennessee-Martin), and somewhere in between (Little Rock). Morehead was easily the best team but a late-season collapse saw them blow the title; that stumble turned into a recovery and a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they pushed future Elite Eight ‘participant’ Illinois for a solid 28 minutes. Things are still bad here, as Morehead and Martin’s head coaches departed for new jobs in the offseason, but there’s a future you can reasonably point to. No identifiable style yet, just a few things here and there you’ll like.
I give Little Rock a significant edge in the race heading into November. They’ve got the best overall team and the one with the most offensive promise, including who I’d argue for being the leader for conference POTY. KK Robinson (formerly of Arkansas/Texas A&M) is the only player in the OVC with a >100 Offensive Rating and a Usage% above 23% that’s back for another run, which instantly puts him ahead of the competition. Lineups with Robinson last year outscored opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions, unadjusted for schedule, with the offense in general playing far faster. With Robinson, Makhel Mitchell (you remember him from Arkansas, too), and Johnathan Lawson (Memphis/Creighton), Little Rock has three of the five best players the OVC has to offer.
And yet! And yet. Darrell Walker finally put it all together last year, but that was after five largely aimless seasons in which a 15-5 run in 2019-20 in the Sun Belt covered up for four other years of 11 total wins or fewer. Little about Walker’s systems on either end really stand out, and I like him a lot more as a talent scout than an in-game coach. I know more about him as a coach than I do Morehead State’s Jonathan Mattox, who takes over for the departed Preston Spradlin (James Madison).
Morehead returns only 7% of their scoring from a year ago, and pretty much everything about this program is brand new. Just one starter, Dieonte Miles, will return. Miles is a quality building block, though; the number of players in the OVC with a >10% OREB% and a >5% Block% is just Miles. You can build a defense around that. Considering Mattox worked with Spradlin for six seasons, one can assume he’ll likely continue the plotline all around there. There’s real talent here…defensively. I think this could be a rough, rough watch on O, though. Still, Morehead’s easily the highest-floor OVC program, with three straight coaches experiencing heavy success. They should be fine.
BEHIND THE WALL ($): Boy, there are a lot of basketball teams