2024 NCAA Tournament Watchlist: Elite Eight Sunday
Typed from a couch before I go to service
First, an apology. I didn’t get any Elite Eight preview out for yesterday for the men’s side. I was exhausted between writing the Purdue/Tennessee preview, attempting to take care of some things at home, and also seeing a friend. Should be back to normal today, though I’ll be in and out due to Easter activities.
This post is free because I’m doing these in limited time, but all of the Final Four content this coming week will be paywalled. I’m extending the $18/year offer out another week. Subscribe here:
On we go.
NCAAW: (3) Oregon State vs. (1) South Carolina (-15.5), 1 PM ET, ABC
HerHoopStats: South Carolina by 17, 94% to win
A few times this year, South Carolina’s looked more vulnerable than they did during last year’s regular season. They let Indiana back into the game on Friday largely by way of poor closeouts. It seems that this team’s attention can wax and wane a bit, which could eventually bite them and end their season early. Of course, this team is so ridiculously good and talented that all of that may not matter.
I’ve been deeply impressed by the Beavers this tournament, who I thought wouldn’t escape the opening weekend but are now 40 minutes from the Elite Eight. I like watching them play a lot; I’m not sure they’re all that well-equipped to take down the Gamecocks. South Carolina is terrific at post denials, and everything runs through the post for Oregon State. If they can actually get it in, SC has been wobbly at times in 1-on-1 situations, but it’s unlikely it will happen that often.
Really, the key way to beat South Carolina (perimeter actions and dribble hand-offs) is something Oregon State doesn’t do as much as you’d hope. This needs to be a huge Talia Von Oelhoffen game for them to pull off the upset. If it’s not, I’m not sure what the path is. Particularly with a South Carolina post offense that can look unstoppable against almost any opponent.
Pick: South Carolina 74, Oregon State 58.
(2) Tennessee vs. (1) Purdue (-3), 2:20 PM ET, CBS
KenPom: Purdue by 3, 60% to win
Torvik: Purdue by 3, 62% to win
Since February 1 (Torvik): Purdue by 0.5, 52% to win
EvanMiya: Purdue by 4, 65% to win
A full preview of this game can be found here.
Pick: Tennessee 74, Purdue 72. Sue me.
NCAAW: (3) NC State vs. (1) Texas (-5.5), 3 PM ET, ABC
HerHoopStats: Texas by 8.5, 78% to win
Of the two women’s Elite Eight games today this is the one I’m much more excited for, mostly because the 1 seed involved isn’t an unstoppable, unbeatable machine. Texas has pretty real flaws, as does NC State, which makes this a great battle between two decently-matched teams with differing strengths and weaknesses.
Over the last few games, Texas has largely stopped pushing on the fastbreak and instead looks to settle into their half-court offense. Normally, this wouldn’t be that notable, but for a Texas team that already entirely eschews the three-point line, it’s caused them to lean into the paint that much more. Texas has taken just 85 three-point attempts in their last 10 games, a number so stunningly low in today’s era of hoops that it almost bears repeating.
More unusual is that Texas doesn’t really pound the ball through a post, instead choosing to use a lot of ball movement to open up driving lanes. Only Portland scored more points this year off of basket/backdoor cuts than Texas did, a testament to quality passing and timing. It’s become very common to zone this Texas offense because they can’t and won’t shoot, but NC State rarely runs any sort of zone to begin with. Can they break that today? Texas has been nine points less efficient per 100 possessions versus zone than man, per Synergy.
On the other end of the court, this is a simple calculus: NC State has to hit jumpers. Texas does a great job of funneling everything to the rim to get blocked, but that’s not NC State’s game. Can Aziaha James, Saniya Rivers, Madison Hayes, etc. hit shots? If they can, NC State could make this game a simple math problem. After all, 3 is more than 2. The problem for NC State: 2 is more than 1, too, and Texas has been the best team in the nation at times this year in generating second chances from offensive boards. If NCSU can’t control that, they might get wrecked.
Pick: Texas 71, NC State 61.
(11) NC State vs. (4) Duke (-7.5), 5:05 PM ET, CBS
KenPom: Duke by 9, 77% to win
Torvik: Duke by 8, 77% to win
Since February 1 (Torvik): Duke by 8.5, 79% to win
EvanMiya: Duke by 7.5, 77% to win
Guys, it’s okay to just say you’re lucky. No one will be offended if you admit it. Amazingly, ACC fans get mad as hornets every time you bring this up. Let me run down some facts for you - facts! - and you can live with them.
Clemson’s first three opponents shot 18% from three in this Tournament. Then, shockingly, Alabama shot 44%. Wild that 18% wasn’t sustainable. Who could have guessed, except literally everyone with a brain? Alabama themselves has shot 41% from three in this Tournament, so they’ve been a little lucky, but maybe now you can admit Clemson got lucky.
NC State has watched their three opponents shoot 24% from deep. Not as bad as Clemson, of course, but it took the second-worst performance in history on 27+ three-point attempts by Marquette to not lose in the Sweet Sixteen. It is okay that they got lucky. Who cares!
Duke’s statistical indicators aren’t as blatant as those two, but Houston losing a first-team All-American after already being incredibly injured was rather fortunate for the Blue Devils.
I bring all of that up because I cannot get excited for this one no matter how hard I try. Yes, NC State did beat Duke in the ACC Tournament…because they shot 44% from three while Duke shot 25%. The first game back on March 4 is arguably more representative of the real story between these two. Duke had no match for DJ Burns down low, they shot 9-30 from three, committed twice as many fouls, and were in a game for 30 minutes. Then they won by 15 points.
What’s stopping that from happening here and completely ruining the rather entertaining NC State run to the Elite Eight? The only thing that’s obvious is shooting variance, because otherwise, I can tell you that in both games Duke ran roughshod over NC State at the rim. They went 17-24 in the first outing, with Jeremy Roach being unguardable. Even in the ACC Tournament loss they went 19-31, with Filipowski being dominant down low.
If Filipowski and Burns more or less cancel each other out offensively, then you’re saying that NC State’s guards are more sustainable and better than Duke’s. I don’t see it. Jared McCain looks like a monster. So does Roach. Tyrese Proctor has turned the corner. Burns may score 25, but with Duke’s P&R offense humming the way it is he might give up 30. Maybe I’m wrong and this game is great; I just can’t visualize it being so.
Pick: Duke 79, NC State 69.