2024 NCAA Tournament Watchlist: Round of 32 (Sunday)
Both men's and women's in this one
Bear with me here: I am quite literally typing the last few games here on my phone from a church parking lot. Blame a packed weekend schedule…therefore, in an attempt to draw more eyeballs and as an apology, this one is free.
MEN’S ROUND OF 32
(2) Marquette (-3.5) vs. (10) Colorado, 12:10 PM ET, CBS
KenPom: Marquette by 2, 58% to win
Torvik: Marquette by 3, 61% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): Pick ‘em, 50% to win
EvanMiya: Marquette by 3.5, 64% to win
I’ve got a real hankering for this one. I observe that Tyler Kolek isn’t really at full health, but he’s probably at 90% or so. I really need this one, a battle between he and KJ Simpson, to be as good as it might be on paper.
Against similar defenses we’ve seen Marquette be fairly satisfied with attacking drop by telling Kolek (and Kam Jones) to simply get downhill and deal with the consequences. Marquette plays the mathball style we’re all in love with these days, with almost no midrange jumpers to be found. Everything here is either a three or an attempt at the rim. Kolek is just okay as a pull-up shooter but is a tremendous finisher for his size, so I wonder if Colorado fully packs it in and tells him to shoot over the top. However, you can’t do that with Kam Jones.
On the other hand, the defenses that have given Marquette the hardest days at the office this year are almost all drop-coverage teams (Providence, UConn, Creighton, Wisconsin). Kolek is an amazing passer, but this group hasn’t exploited drop like last year’s did. On defense Marquette will hedge/blitz to get the ball out of Simpson’s hands, which is wise, but I have a feeling Colorado’s got a huge advantage in the frontcourt here. Marquette’s main lineup can cover one of Hadley/Lampkin well but probably not both all the time.
Pick: Colorado 79, Marquette 75. If this one goes to overtime I won’t be all that shocked. Hadley/Lampkin combine for 25+.
(1) Purdue (-11.5) vs. (8) Utah State, 2:40 PM ET, CBS
KenPom: Purdue by 9, 80% to win
Torvik: Purdue by 11.5, 85% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): Purdue by 9.5, 80% to win
EvanMiya: Purdue by 14, 91% to win
This one’s plausible but it’s going to require Utah State to hit a lot of jumpers. They can do it, of course, but the path to super-easy points at the rim here is pretty slim. The Edey drop will open up a lot of room for Utah State to get these shots off, and they’ve certainly got guards and wings that can hit them…but it just feels like so much.
On the other end, everything in a Purdue game revolves around Edey…which is an awful sign for a Utah State group that rates in the 12th percentile in post-up defense. The best and only shot Utah State has is to double Edey on basically every single possession, and honestly, I feel like that may only work for a little while. If USU can’t hit jumpers, this could get really nasty really fast.
Pick: Purdue 88, Utah State 70. I think USU can hang for a bit but this could be a monster Edey game. I know 30 & 21 against a 16 seed was cool but I’m saying something like 37 & 15 is on the table here.
(4) Duke (-7.5) vs. (12) James Madison, 5:15 PM ET, CBS
KenPom: Duke by 8, 77% to win
Torvik: Duke by 8, 78% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): Duke by 9, 80% to win
EvanMiya: Duke by 6, 73% to win
My honest thought here is that if you’re a betting person, which I am not, looking for something in the realm of James Madison 1H/Duke full game is reasonable. The JMU defense is more aggressive and blitzy than about 95% of the teams anyone plays in a given season and will take some time to adjust to. Once Duke gets there, I think they’ve got the athletes and a real advantage down low to get away. Maybe.
It really is just that for me: how quickly can Duke adjust to JMU’s aggressive blitzing attack on defense? It’s not as obvious as a Samford might be, but Wisconsin was clearly extremely uncomfortable with how in-your-shorts JMU can get. It requires a certain style of officiating to work, but given how Tournament games are generally officiated they’ll get away with it. Key matchup here: Kyle Filipowski vs. TJ Bickerstaff and crew. Flip has four inches and 30 pounds on his matchup here, and JMU is a just-okay post defense this season.
Pick: Duke 74, James Madison 70. This feels almost exactly like the 4/12 Duke/Yale game in 2016.
(3) Baylor (-4.5) vs. (6) Clemson, 6:10 PM ET, TNT
KenPom: Baylor by 2, 60% to win
Torvik: Baylor by 2, 58% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): Baylor by 1.5, 56% to win
EvanMiya: Baylor by 2, 58% to win
You hate to boil it down to just one thing, but this is one thing: who hits their jumpers? These are two terrific shooting offenses and two defenses that give up a lot of good looks. To boot: Baylor’s 15-2 when shooting better than 40% on threes. Clemson is 11-0. Neither team has elite rim protection, Clemson doesn’t have wings that can guards Ja’Kobe Walter or Jayden Nunn, and Yves Missi is in a really problematic matchup with PJ Hall. My vote here is Points. Lots of points.
Pick: Baylor 83, Clemson 75. This could be anything from, like, 92-65 Clemson to 94-69 Baylor.
(4) Alabama (-5.5) vs. (12) Grand Canyon, 7:10 PM ET, TBS
KenPom: Alabama by 5, 69% to win
Torvik: Alabama by 7, 72% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): Alabama by 2, 57% to win
EvanMiya: Alabama by 7, 75% to win
I mean, the Grand Canyon win on Friday night was entertaining and all, but please look at this list of the best offenses they’ve played.
That’s the full list of teams inside the top-110 of KenPom offensive efficiency. There is nothing, nothing, like playing Alabama on that list. That’s going to be really, really hard to slow down even a little, especially given Alabama’s outputs against mid-major competition this year have been gangbusters.
My worry is actually more about how Grand Canyon can consistently score points. For Alabama’s 11 losses, all of which have been extremely funny, none have come to offenses outside the top 50 (GCU #56). They’re a perfect 16-0. The GCU style of play is statistically similar to that of LSU, a team Alabama played twice this year. They won 109-88, then 109-92 two weeks later.
Pick: Alabama 97, Grand Canyon 81. GCU will hang for a bit, but I have a hard time seeing this being one where they get over the top.
(1) UConn (-14.5) v. (9) Northwestern, 7:45 PM ET, TruTV
KenPom: UConn by 10, 82% to win
Torvik: UConn by 9.5, 84% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): UConn by 11.5, 88% to win
EvanMiya: UConn by 11, 87% to win
No, I’m not crazy enough to think UConn loses this game. I do have limits. But I do see the path here, I really do.
Northwestern can be a reasonably difficult short turnaround prep because of their hard-blitzing ball screen scheme, which will result in a lot of Tristen Newton pass-outs. That’s one thing, which is asking the other non-Newton players to take advantage of the substantial number of open jumpers Northwestern allows. The other is that Northwestern is going to hunt 1-on-1 matchups for Boo Buie from start to finish of this game.
It just takes two things: UConn shooting 24% or something from three, and Boo Buie hitting tough shots. Then, the game is absolutely on. As amazing as this UConn team is, they’re not invincible, and as Creighton/Seton Hall can tell you, it just takes one hot night.
Pick: UConn 76, Northwestern 67.
(1) Houston (-9.5) vs. (9) Texas A&M, 8:40 PM ET, TNT
KenPom: Houston by 10, 81% to win
Torvik: Houston by 11.5, 89% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): Houston by 10, 84% to win
EvanMiya: Houston by 8.5, 80% to win
I saw this game already. A&M was missing Tyrece ‘Boots’ Radford in it, but Houston was pretty dominant until their offense went missing and Wade Taylor got scorching hot. It’s sort of a microcosm of both teams’ seasons, actually. Houston is capable of totally shutting your water off for good on defense, but all-too-frequently I look up and see Houston leading 11-2 at the 16-minute media timeout…followed by them only pushing that lead to 14-7 10 minutes in.
It’s unusual that we get a Round of 32 game with a data point to use, though 27 of Houston’s minutes from that game (Arceneaux, Tugler) are in the hands of players who won’t be available due to injury. Still, it’s useful. A&M got back in the game by exploiting the hard-hedge to a pretty surprising 41% hit rate on threes in the second half, but almost everything else got stuffed. A&M also got nothing at all from attempting to ISO Taylor onto larger defenders.
Houston’s goals here will probably be pretty similar: penetrate the paint, kick out, repeat. Houston attempted 27 threes in the first matchup, which is notable considering they averaged 21 a game in Big 12 play. That’s the nature of the A&M defense which gives up a billion threes, many of them open. If Houston hits jumpers, they’ll win by 15+. If they don’t, it’s trouble.
Pick: Houston 77, Texas A&M 62. I get it, obviously, but the path here is A&M once again shooting 40%+ from three. They don’t, this ends quickly.
(5) San Diego State (-5.5) vs. (13) Yale, 9:40 PM ET, TBS
KenPom: San Diego State by 6, 71% to win
Torvik: San Diego State by 5, 70% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): San Diego State by 4, 67% to win
EvanMiya: San Diego State by 3.5, 64% to win
Lost in Yale’s wonderful, marvelous upset of Auburn was a pretty important statline: Johni Broome having 24 points, 13 rebounds. Auburn as a whole scored 16 points on 14 post-ups, which is reasonably important when you score <1 PPP on everything else. Broome had no one on Yale’s roster who could guard him, which makes it unbelievable to me that Pearl gave him just 27 minutes and 10 shot attempts. (Letting KD Johnson take nine is coaching malpractice.)
I bring this up because San Diego State has Jaedon LeDee, just as unguardable and somehow even thicker. Has Yale spawned anyone who can stop LeDee, or at least a team-wide game plan? If not, I just don’t see it, sorry.
Pick: San Diego State 71, Yale 65.
WOMEN’S ROUND OF 32
(2) Ohio State (-7.5) vs. (7) Duke, 12 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Ohio State by 6, 71% to win
Massey: Ohio State by 5, 66% to win
If you haven’t seen the Ohio State women play yet this year, strap in for a fun time. The Buckeyes play fast, score faster, and have been truly unbelievable off of dribble hand-offs this year. Only Bowling Green scored more points off of those actions this season, which makes for a fascinating matchup…and a potentially bad one for Duke, who sits in the 25th-percentile in efficiency on hand-off defense. They’ve been fine-to-good in actual ball-screen defense, but this is a test unlike anything else in the ACC.
Breaking the OSU press will be the first test for Duke, who really hasn’t seen much press this year but has been fine at breaking them for the most part. Once they get through that, can they generate points at the rim consistently? OSU funnels a ton of opponent offense down low, which can be problematic when teams actually finish well. My main question for a competitive game: can Duke actually slow this game down to their pace? If so, it’s winnable. If they can’t, and Ohio State produces a lot of quick points, I don’t know that Duke can keep up.
Pick: Ohio State 62, Duke 58. Hedging here a bit…I don’t hate this matchup for Duke because they can ugly up almost anything, and their press/overall defense is a tough short prep.
(1) South Carolina (-21.5) vs. (8) North Carolina, 1 PM ET, ABC
HerHoopStats: South Carolina by 24.5, 99% to win
Massey: South Carolina by 18.5, 91% to win
If North Carolina makes 10+ threes, they can win this game. The problem is that they don’t take many in the first place, and overall, their offense isn’t the prettiest watch. South Carolina projects to have a giant edge on the boards, in the paint, and nearly everywhere.
Pick: South Carolina 78, North Carolina 54. Might be close for a while, won’t be for long.
(4) Kansas State (-3.5) vs. (5) Colorado, 2 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Kansas State by 3, 60% to win
Massey: Kansas State by 0.5, 51% to win
Great matchup here between an elite defense (Kansas State) and an elite offense (Colorado). KSU has mostly recovered from a mid-season tailspin thanks to their star player taking a key injury, but Colorado has consistently just been very good all year long. I think the frontcourts largely wash out here, as both are top-tier units in WBB, which means it comes down to guard play for me. Colorado’s guards all season long have been tremendous shooters. KSU’s have sort of come and gone depending on the game. Home court matters but it feels like the better backcourt matters more.
Pick: Colorado 74, Kansas State 70. Jaylyn Sherrod is your MVP, going for 18 points/9 assists.
(3) LSU (-16.5) vs. (11) MTSU, 3 PM ET, ABC
HerHoopStats: LSU by 11.5, 85% to win
Massey: LSU by 13, 83% to win
On paper, LSU could win this by 30 if they want. The talent and athleticism gap is truly severe, and while MTSU’s win over Louisville was fantastic it was honestly closer and tougher than I thought it would be. If LSU is locked in for 40 minutes, this could be horrid and uninteresting. But off the court, this Mulkey story buzzing about in WaPo adds a unique factor that’s hard to predict in a one-off setting. Does it make LSU play angrier for their coach? Was Friday’s surprisingly weak outing versus Rice a sign of things to come? I’m really hedging here because I don’t know what to expect. MTSU has no true cover for Reese and no way of not getting smashed on the boards here, but their offensive actions could carve up the Tigers if they aren’t invested.
Pick: LSU 83, MTSU 68. I don’t know what to expect here.
(3) Oregon State (-7.5) vs. (6) Nebraska, 4 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Oregon State by 6.5, 72% to win
Massey: Oregon State by 5, 65% to win
Continuing my tradition of being wrong online, I’m still not much a believer in Oregon State. They avoided the upset Friday but lost star center Raegan Beers to an ankle injury late in the third quarter. Her status appears uncertain today; if she cannot go I think Nebraska wins outright. If she goes but is limited, it opens up a lot of space for Nebraska to attack in P&R. Jaz Shelley is frankly better than anyone Oregon State has in the backcourt and can take over a game where needed; I’m leaning towards that happening here.
Pick: Nebraska 66, Oregon State 61.
(1) Texas (-14.5) vs. (8) Alabama, 6 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Texas by 15, 91% to win
Massey: Texas by 13, 83% to win
Very fun season for the Tide, but the path to contention here feels slim. Texas (much like LSU) is going to own a tremendous advantage on the boards here, potentially accumulating 10+ more offensive boards than Alabama. As such, getting into schematics is a little boring here - when one team is so dramatically better down low Texas may just pound the paint the entire game.
Pick: Texas 73, Alabama 54.
(4) Virginia Tech (-3.5) vs. (5) Baylor, 8 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Virginia Tech by 4.5, 66% to win
Massey: Virginia Tech by 1.5, 55% to win
Well, pretty simple for me: assuming Liz Kitley cannot go, Baylor is straight-up better. I do worry about Baylor’s offense, which can really run hot and cold, but I wonder if Virginia Tech may be about out of steam. HCA is huge here, but Tech’s defense sans Kitley has really struggled and ranks out as a bang-average unit without her. If Kenny Brooks can’t find an interior solution between now and tipoff I’m not sure how he can slow Baylor’s attack.
Pick: Baylor 77, Virginia Tech 72.
(2) Stanford (-13.5) vs. (7) Iowa State, 10 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Stanford by 14.5, 90% to win
Massey: Stanford by 9.5, 76% to win
No notes on this one - Stanford is all-around much better. I don’t think ISU (or barely anyone really) has a natural cover for Cameron Brink, a true Bucket Problem of the highest order. That being said, one Iowa State hot day from 3 makes this very interesting…but you can’t go into every game counting on that.
Pick: Stanford 73, Iowa State 59.