2024 NCAA Tournament Watchlist: Round of 32 (Monday)
Including a pair of wars in Raleigh and Bloomington
Scheduling note: I have a piece coming out later today on the historical unique-ness of the men’s Sweet Sixteen, about how chalky everything is. I am debating if that one should be free or not, but leaning yes for the obvious reason(s) that include such things as getting new readers. Giving you all a heads-up here, as pretty much everything else, including a mid-week breakdown of a Round of 64 game that I’ve tentatively titled “Kentucky’s hubris”, will be behind a paywall. Including everything after the first two games listed here. Get in!
(2) Notre Dame (-10.5) vs. (7) Ole Miss, 2 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: Ohio State by 12, 86% to win
This one’s all about how well Coach Yo and Ole Miss can junk it up on defense. Of all the coaches left in the field she may be top-5 at tweaking and adjusting her defense on short prep. The Ole Miss press is mostly a token one but the zone here could be quite fascinating against a Notre Dame offense that’s faced a ton of zone defenses this year and has posted good-not-great results.
The Ole Miss matchup zone is tough on short prep, which really puts the emphasis on Notre Dame’s shooters to find their spots. Hannah Hidalgo is more or less a lock for 20+ points but how much can the trio of Westbeld/Citron/DeWolfe give you? If they combine for 35+, this is a win. If not, the path for an upset exists.
Pick: Notre Dame 70, Ole Miss 62. I won’t be shocked at all if Ole Miss hangs around for a very long time.
(3) NC State (-5.5) vs. (6) Tennessee, 4 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: NC State by 5, 67% to win
As someone who lives in Knoxville(-adjacent) the Tennessee performance on Saturday is the single most stunning start-to-finish outing of either Tournament so far for me. Green Bay was a reasonable upset pick against a Tennessee team that had to scrap and claw off the bubble over the last month and Tennessee annihilated them, thanks to emphasizing a tremendous advantage in the post. The truth is the truth: it’s a genuinely different team when Rickea Jackson is fully healthy.
As such, I wonder if NC State could be in a little trouble here. Tennessee’s offense has actually been better when zoned this year thanks to the work of Jackson and Jewel Spear, two natural Bucket Problems. I bring the defense up first because NCSU’s offense has been really, really rough lately, thanks to an offense low on plus shot-makers. NCSU presumably will run Saniya Rivers on Jackson, but then you need someone to take Spear. Is freshman Zoe Brooks or junior Aziaha James ready?
Pick: Tennessee 75, NC State 67. I simply trust Jackson more than anyone on NCSU’s roster.