2024 NCAA Tournament Watchlist: Sweet Sixteen (Friday)

Good Friday indeed

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First two are free, the last six are paywalled. Enjoy.

MEN’S

(2) Marquette (-6.5) vs. (11) NC State, 7:09 PM ET, CBS

• KenPom: Marquette by 6, 71% to win

• Torvik: Marquette by 7.5, 76% to win

• Since February 1 (Torvik): Marquette by 6.5, 73% to win

• EvanMiya: Marquette by 5.5, 71% to win

I like this one because in some aspect, it’s a good test of shot volume versus shot efficiency. Both teams can do both but rarely at the same time. NC State didn’t expect to be here; I didn’t expect Marquette to be here. That’s the fun of the NCAA Tournament, some goofy and unusual matchups you’re unlikely to ever see again. And also giving a hot-seat guy a multi-year extension only for him to disappoint the next season, presumably.

Schematically this is very different in each direction. Having played in the Big East, Marquette’s used to a lot of drop coverage, and NC State will largely keep big man D.J. Burns in the paint at all costs. When he’s out, though, they’ve shown a willingness to hedge screens or switch them off. I feel like this is a game of two things: how good Marquette’s ball-handlers are in navigating these without turning it over, and how well they can find the necessary buckets to create separation.

The key for me here is Kam Jones, who NCSU doesn’t really have an ideal matchup for. They’ll try Casey Morsell on him at first if I had to guess, but Jones is bigger and better at getting downhill. Someone has to guard Tyler Kolek, too. Also, someone has to check Oso Ighodaro (and Ben Gold) for a full 40. I don’t like this matchup defensively for NCSU much at all, and the only thing that can prevent a bloodletting is Marquette putting up an Arizona-like shooting outing from 3.

NC State could get points of their own too, though. The number of posts Marquette has seen quite like Burns is almost zero, a guy who cannot be doubled or singled-up and is a willing passer out of the post. Like any good upset pick NC State has enjoyed some plus shooting luck this month, with guys like Michael O’Connell (55% in March, 28% all other months) shooting the lights out, but they run good stuff with Burns in the post and Marquette basically has to start this game picking and choosing what they can run and when. I’m a firm believer that indecision in a gameplan can really wreck you, and a full Burnsing (plus 40% from three) could keep the miracle run going. I doubt it, but hey, seen crazier.

Pick: Marquette 77, NC State 69.

(1) Purdue (-5.5) vs. (5) Gonzaga, 7:39 PM ET, TBS

• KenPom: Purdue by 4, 66% to win

• Torvik: Purdue by 5, 68% to win

• Since February 1 (Torvik): Purdue by 1, 54% to win

• EvanMiya: Purdue by 4, 66% to win

Wait, I already saw this one! Back in Maui, Purdue beat Gonzaga by 10 in a pretty ugly game that was unfortunately a precursor to several other ugly games in the temporary Maui home that week. Notable from that is the one aspect Gonzaga fans have held onto from that game: they shot 6-32 from 3, or 19%. (They usually leave out that Purdue shot 24%.) Gonzaga can’t shoot that bad on such high volume again, right? Especially now that four of their seven best 3PT% nights on the season have come in March.

Gonzaga’s equation of this comes down to how well, if at all, they can stuff Zach Edey. In the first game forever ago, Gonzaga went with single coverage for almost the entire game, only doubling Edey once or twice. Largely, this actually worked pretty well, because Edey shot 6-14 out of the post in that game. While he’s going to have a height advantage in basically any game ever, Edey struggled quite a bit to hit hook shots, as Gonzaga continued to force him away from the basket. Edey didn’t get off a single post pin action in the game.

Can you do that twice in a row? Maybe, maybe not. Gonzaga’s rotation on the whole is so thin that it may not be workable for very long, and I assume Matt Painter knows this pretty well. Still, that’s obviously the battle to watch.

The other end of the court also involves Edey. Can Gonzaga beat the Edey Drop? The strategy in the first game involved both Nembhard taking a variety of floaters and pull-up twos, but more importantly, they got the bigs involved from the perimeter. Ike took six (!) of his 13 threes this season in that game; Watson also took several. It wouldn’t shock me at all if this is a huge Ben Gregg game, as Gregg is a 39% shooter from deep and in smaller lineups could really cause problems for Edey.

Pick: Purdue 76, Gonzaga 73. I think this is a razor-thin game and plausibly an instant classic that goes down to the wire. I trust Purdue’s depth a little more.