2024 NCAA Tournament Watchlist: Women's Sweet 16 (Saturday)
A five-pack of games, plus the D2 men's title game
These games are in order of start time. I like getting eyeballs on posts, so this is a rare free one for the month of March.
The men’s Elite Eight games will have previews posted on Twitter later, sorry. I ran 15 miles this morning and have a throbbing headache, which I assume is because I slept five hours. Anyway! You came here for hoops.
NCAAW: (3) LSU (-2.5) vs. (2) UCLA, 1 PM ET, ABC
HerHoopStats: LSU by 2.5, 58% to win
Has UCLA found any semblance of post defense in the last week? If they haven’t, Angel Reese and Aneesah Morrow may run wild here. Rarely can you point to one thing and say “that’s the game,” but that’s the game here: two of the best post players in America taking on a 9th-percentile post defense, per Synergy. UCLA uses a lot of fronting and post denial to keep the ball from getting down low to begin with, but LSU is perhaps the pre-eminent post play team in the field. (Excluding South Carolina?)
UCLA wants to funnel everything to the midrange, but this is an LSU team that thrives there with Mikaylah Williams and Hailey Van Lith knocking down shots. Can UCLA keep pace? If so, they’ve gotta hit jumpers. Only one other team left in the field forces as many per game as LSU does, with very few teams even bothering to challenge Reese and Morrow down low. Lauren Betts will get hers in the post, as usual, but without Charisma Osborne and crew knocking down jumpers this could be a long day for the Bruins. This is a scary LSU team when rolling.
Pick: LSU 74, UCLA 68.
D2: (1) Minnesota State vs. (2) Nova Southeastern (-4.5), 3 PM ET, CBS
CBB Analytics: Nova Southeastern by 5.5, 68% to win
I have no real preview or interesting take here, but I’m begging you to watch this game. The Division 2 level is quietly the NCAA’s best for quirky, creative offensive concepts. What a blessing that the two most interesting offenses in the sport this year made the title game.
Nova Southeastern wants every game to be 85+ possessions, while Minnesota State’s insanely hard-to-guard P&R sets would be happy keeping this in the 60-65 possession range. Styles clashes almost always make for really entertaining hoops, especially here with such different systems. Both coaches (Matt Margenthaler for Minnesota State, Jim Crutchfield for Nova) are stalwarts of the D2 game, too, and have been around forever. Bonus: Minnesota State’s women’s team won the D2 women’s title last night, which would have to make for the greatest weekend in university history if they take this.
Pick: Nova Southeastern 87, Minnesota State 82. Have fun.
NCAAW: (5) Colorado vs. (1) Iowa (-6.5), 3:30 PM ET, ABC
HerHoopStats: Iowa by 12.5, 87% to win
Every Iowa game more or less revolves around the same three questions:
Can you slow down Iowa in transition and keep Caitlin Clark and crew from getting easy buckets?
Can you cover the innumerable off-ball screens Iowa runs for Clark?
Can you attack Iowa’s secretly pretty poor post defense, which isn’t as strong as it was a year ago in this Tournament?
Of these I’d say Colorado is a maybe on #1, a hard no on #2, and a yes on #3. What that equates to is probably something in between the Vegas spread and the HHS spread. There might not be a team that says yes to all three, but at least getting to 1.5/3 gives you a fighting chance here. Colorado’s really gotta ride their post advantage here with Aaronette Vonleh, who is the best post on either team unless Hannah Stuelke can pull out one of her better nights. (She looked terrified against West Virginia, which isn’t a great sign.)
Pick: Iowa 79, Colorado 69. Vonleh might drop 25+ but Clark is probably going for 34 or something anyway.
NCAAW: (5) Baylor vs. (1) USC (-3.5), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: USC by 1, 54% to win
Every USC game is headlined by JuJu Watkins but McKenzie Forbes has arguably been the bigger two-way impact player in this Tournament; she’s scored 43 points and was massive in the Kansas game from behind the arc. That’s a must-have against a Baylor defense that has been tremendous all season long in running shooters off the three-point line. Baylor forces a ton of pull-up jumpers and allows very few stable shots in the first place.
Baylor won’t be afraid to throw their zone at USC here either which makes for a fascinating chess match. USC hasn’t been zoned much this year but their offense goes from awesome to just pretty good against one, which could be a by-product of a heavily jumper-dependent team that produces very little at the rim (11th-percentile in percentage of layups as overall shots). This one has a huge range of outcomes on the USC side, not as much Baylor whose offense is capable of some horrific things.
Pick: USC 66, Baylor 60.
NCAAW: (7) Duke vs. (3) UConn (-8.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN
HerHoopStats: UConn by 11, 84% to win
Well, here’s your thing to watch for: UConn is 26-1 when scoring 30 or more points in the paint this year. If they get there, this game isn’t going to be close, because Duke’s offense isn’t elite enough to hang for a full 40. If Duke’s awesome defense (constructed by Kara Lawson, btw!) can slow Paige Bueckers and crew down, this could be really fun. I just have a hard time actually seeing it come to fruition.
Pick: UConn 81, Duke 64. Sorry.