2025 conference tournament previews, part 1 of 4
OVC, Big South, ASun, Missouri Valley, Summit League, SoCon, and Sun Belt
Hello there! Would you like to read about 31 conference tournaments? Well, bad news: I only wrote about seven of them today (originally supposed to be 11) because I got behind. Worse news: you can only read about four of the 31 for free if you remain behind the paywall. You can read about all 31 - odds, analysis, quirky trends, and all such things - if you sign up here for $20 a year. It’s a good deal if you ask me, considering there will be 30+ articles on this site in the next month designed to help you (and me) make more sense of college basketball.
Thank you again to Heat Check CBB for the below infographic, the very best I am aware of as it pertains to keeping track of the madness of Championship Weeks 1 and 2. See below:
Here at the newsletter, I have a bit of a tradition. I break down all 31 conference tournaments, with each of the following included:
KenPom conference ranking
Favorites (30% or higher to win)
Darkhorses (10% or higher)
Best team overall, in non-conference, and in conference play
The average analytics ‘seed’ (aka, where they ranked in the regular season) of the winner
Number of times the non-best team won the conference tournament
Tournament analysis (who’s hot, who’s not, if previous matchups may matter, etc.)
Best pick for March Madness
Winner prediction, as provided by RANDOM.ORG
And a watchability rating out of 10!
It’s a lot to digest, but it’s so much fun to do every year. This year’s public example is the OVC, which is the first of 31 to decide their champion. There will be a new batch of seven tournament previews tomorrow in your inbox as well. Enjoy! And, again, $20/year. It’s not so bad.
Ohio Valley
Championship game: March 8 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 9 PM ET
KenPom conference ranking: 28th of 31
Favorites: Southeast Missouri State (35.6% to win)
Darkhorses: SIU Edwardsville (25.9%), Tennessee State (18.2%), Little Rock (12.6%)
Best team…
Overall: Southeast Missouri State
Non-conference: SIU Edwardsville
Conference: Southeast Missouri State
Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.8
Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 12 possible), 2012-present: 6
Usually, this edition of the OVC is pretty wide-open anyway, but this year feels even more so. SEMO has not even a 4-in-10 chance of winning it despite being the league’s best team and 1 seed. SIU Edwardsville was the best team in non-conference for seemingly the fifth time in the last decade but didn’t capitalize in conference play. Tennessee State remains highly intriguing but can never put it all together. Little Rock has the league’s best unit by a mile (their defense) but also a horrific offense that restricts what they’re capable of.
The wonky OVC structure does give us good odds of a reasonable champion, but at the same time, the conference is so flat that it may not matter. By the Schedule-Adjusted Shot Volume Index, I have Tennessee State (the third-best team) graded out as the best in the league. Actual conference winner SEMO is third. 5-seed Tennessee Tech is last. 7-seed Morehead State is fourth. I really think this one could get nutty fast if the tournament structure allows for it at all.
Best pick for March Madness: Little Rock is your answer here by a sizable margin. With a top-100 defense, they have some similarities to 2021-22 Saint Peter’s, who also couldn’t score…until they could thanks to a hot streak in March. If you have the defense, you’re one hot streak away from the shocker heard ‘round the world. No other top-four team had any winners in their top 10-15 team comparisons.
The winner is… Well, this would be pretty pleasant: SIU Edwardsville wins our RANDOM.ORG simulation over Little Rock to clinch their first-ever Tournament bid. Not great for chaos, but good for them.
Watchability rating: Man, it just depresses me every year because I know what this once was. 2/10? 3/10? One of those.