2025 conference tournament previews, part 4 of 4
Ivy League, Atlantic 10, SEC, American, aaaaaaand the Big Ten
Well, here we are: the final five conference tournament previews. I am whooped. Read parts 2 and 3 here for the tourneys still ongoing!
Thank you again to Heat Check CBB for the below infographic, the very best I am aware of as it pertains to keeping track of the madness of Championship Weeks 1 and 2. See below:
Here at the newsletter, I have a bit of a tradition. I break down all 31 conference tournaments, with each of the following included:
KenPom conference ranking
Favorites (30% or higher to win)
Darkhorses (10% or higher)
Best team overall, in non-conference, and in conference play
The average analytics ‘seed’ (aka, where they ranked in the regular season) of the winner
Number of times the non-best team won the conference tournament
Tournament analysis (who’s hot, who’s not, if previous matchups may matter, etc.)
Best pick for March Madness
Winner prediction, as provided by RANDOM.ORG
And a watchability rating out of 10!
It’s a lot to digest, but it’s so much fun to do every year. As is standard this year, the first conference covered will be free for all to read, but the remainder will be behind a paywall. As it stands, it’s $20 for a year of the newsletter, which I think is a steal when there will be 30+ articles on here in the month of March.
This edition covers every single championship decided on Sunday, March 16, also known as SELECTION SUNDAY. The first (Ivy League) is free; all others are paid.
Ivy League
Championship game: March 16 (Sunday) on ESPN2, 12 PM ET
KenPom conference ranking: 14th
Favorites: Yale (59.2%)
Darkhorses: Cornell (22.4%), Dartmouth (12%), Princeton (6.4%)
Best team…
Overall: Yale
Non-conference: Yale
Conference: Yale
Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2017-present (when Ivy began playing a tournament): 1.5
Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 6 possible), 2012-present: 3
For most of my life, and for most of anyone’s life, the Ivy League was the last holdout against Conference Tournament Culture. The regular season winner, the best team over the 14 games they play, would get the autobid to the NCAA Tournament. If there was a tie, they’d do a one-game playoff, and let me tell you: those were ELECTRIC. I have really, really fond memories of seeing this live on ESPN3 (when it was still called that) while other seniors in high school were probably living useful lives.
They bowed to the pressure, and now, we get this weird four-team tournament that the best team has failed to win three straight seasons instead of the old 14-game tournament that the best team won pretty much 100% of the time. They have won NCAA Tournament games in back-to-back Tournaments, though, so as usual, I’m probably the stupid one for caring.
Yale is this year’s prohibitive favorite and the clear class of the Ivy. They went 13-1 with the single loss by 5 on the road to rival Harvard; no other team went better than 9-5. This year’s group is very similar to most other James Jones groups: they force a ton of jumpers, take relatively few themselves, are dominant in all-around shot volume, and actually hang in pretty well when they step up to playing higher competition. You remember last year’s upset of Auburn, obviously, but this year they went 2-3 in Tier A/B games and played Purdue very well for about 35 minutes.
The darkhorses are all fine but frustrating. Cornell promoted an assistant so they could be the exact same team they’ve been for years, which is a delight on offense and a disaster on defense. Princeton was the clear best roster in the preseason but has been a stunning disappointment, barely sneaking into this tournament at all despite having the obvious best talent in the league in Xaivian Lee. (They went 2-11-1 against the spread in Ivy play. Awful.) Dartmouth is the most surprising entrant here, with the league’s best defense in a truly heroic coaching job by Dave McLaughlin. Their offensive possessions are fast and usually end in a missed shot, but that merely allows them to get back to the side of the ball they’re really good at.
The last two editions of the Ivy were deeper, but Yale is a fun top-end talent, and for all my whining, you are guaranteed at least 1-2 good games here. And, heck, maybe Mitch Henderson rediscovers the Princeton magic, who knows.
Best pick for March Madness: I’m a poor person to listen to, because last year I did not particularly love Yale as a March option. But it’s still Yale for basically the same reasons it would always be Yale. A couple of top comps for them are 2008-09 Western Kentucky - great on the boards, pretty good all around - and 2020-21 Ohio, who was smaller but offered the same excellent interior scoring ability along with showing that they could scale up against better teams. They’d need the right matchup, because I would think someone like 5-seed Saint Mary’s would likely just overpower their built-in rebounding advantage by simply being better at it while 5-seed Oregon may struggle to create separation if they’re not able to beat Yale in the post.
The winner is… Hey, the Ivy stays normal for once. Yale defeats Dartmouth by 13 in the final after a spirited effort.
Watchability rating: 7/10. It is fine.