2025 conference tournament previews, part 2 of 4
CAA, Horizon, NEC, WCC, Southland, Patriot, and Big Sky
Hello! If you missed yesterday’s edition, which covered the Ohio Valley, Big South, ASun, Missouri Valley, Summit League, Southern Conference, and Sun Belt, go here to read about each of these.
Thank you again to Heat Check CBB for the below infographic, the very best I am aware of as it pertains to keeping track of the madness of Championship Weeks 1 and 2. See below:
Here at the newsletter, I have a bit of a tradition. I break down all 31 conference tournaments, with each of the following included:
KenPom conference ranking
Favorites (30% or higher to win)
Darkhorses (10% or higher)
Best team overall, in non-conference, and in conference play
The average analytics ‘seed’ (aka, where they ranked in the regular season) of the winner
Number of times the non-best team won the conference tournament
Tournament analysis (who’s hot, who’s not, if previous matchups may matter, etc.)
Best pick for March Madness
Winner prediction, as provided by RANDOM.ORG
And a watchability rating out of 10!
It’s a lot to digest, but it’s so much fun to do every year. As is standard this year, the first conference covered will be free for all to read, but the remainder will be behind a paywall. As it stands, it’s $20 for a year of the newsletter, which I think is a steal when there will be 30+ articles on here in the month of March.
On with the show.
Coastal Athletic Association
Championship game: March 11 (Tuesday) on CBS Sports Network, 7 PM ET
KenPom conference ranking: 18th of 31
Favorites: UNC Wilmington (32.9%)
Darkhorses: Charleston (17.7%), Towson (15.2%), William & Mary (8.8%)
Best team…
Overall: UNC Wilmington
Non-conference: Elon
Conference: UNC Wilmington
Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.4
Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 12 possible), 2012-present: 8
The CAA has changed names, but aside from a two-year run by Charleston, it remains the same topsy-turvy conference it’s been for most of my lifetime. The 1 seed only wins the league 33% of the time; the actual #1 team has the same success rate. Considering there’s a combined chance of 48% that either the 1 seed or the best team ends up in the NCAA Tournament field, you can expect this to be appropriately nutty.
Towson is the 1 seed thanks to a 16-2 run in conference play, despite shooting 46.5% from two (323rd-best) and having neither a top-150 offense nor defense. The Tigers shot volume their way into close games (41st OREB%, 28th TO% on offense) despite regularly getting outshot, which is how you can go 9-1 in close games in conference play. (Also, luck.) In the final 8 minutes of games in conference play, Towson outshot opponents 43%-18% from three, which…well, you know how I feel about that.
The actual best team, then, is UNC Wilmington, also the only CAA team that could jump into the KenPom top 100 with a hot conference tournament run. UNCW had the league’s best offense, was #1 in eFG%, #1 in OREB%, and outrebounded opponents by +7.9 per 100 this year…but ended up with the 2 seed thanks to a pair of awful late-season losses to Elon (by 11) and Hampton (by 13). They also lost at home to Towson in their only battle this season.
The other two double-byes are Charleston and William & Mary. Charleston regressed a tad in year one of Chris Mack but ended up with a gaudy 23-8 record thanks to going 8-1 in games decided by six or less. Charleston doesn’t really do anything excellently aside from a low foul count; they’re just kinda generically fine.
W&M is the boom-bust pick: the third-highest 3PT attempt rate in America combined with an awful defense will do that to you. The style has resulted in some major hits - 90-75 defeat of Charleston, 84-73 over future MEAC champion Norfolk State - and some huge misses (three straight losses to end the season, a 96-55 loss to Campbell). They’re likely to win the math battle in most games in terms of shot quality, but they average the equivalent of five fewer shooting possessions per 100 than their opponents thanks to weak rebounding/ball security.
Best pick for March Madness: None of the top seeds do much (aside from UNCW’s rebounding volume, which usually dissipates against top-end talent) that would indicate March overperformance. So how about a truly wacky pick in Campbell, the 5 seed? The Camels had the league’s best defense. It was partially thanks to giving up just 29% from deep in a league that averages 34%, but they were #1 in defensive TO% and suppressed opponent shot volume quite well. The profile matches up well with an Oakland or similar…though the Camels lost second banana Jasin Sinani to a horrific Kevin Ware-like injury recently and have lost four of five.
The winner is… The more things change, the more they stay the same. Charleston defeats Campbell to achieve their third straight Tournament bid.
Watchability rating: 6/10. A bonus point given to an otherwise-meh league for what should be a nutty tournament.