2025 men's National Championship preview: Florida/Houston

The battle of the ages between which time zone is superior: Central or Eastern

In the Final Four preview on Thursday, I noted the following:

Want to go with KenPom’s picks? Get ready for a Duke/Florida title game. Prefer Torvik? Houston/Auburn. EvanMiya? Duke/Florida. The Massey Ratings consensus, covering 56 different ranking systems? Duke/Auburn. Results over the last 10 games only? Houston/Florida. Results over the last 20 games? Duke/Florida. Games against top-50 teams only? Houston/Auburn. Synergy Sports’ schedule-adjusted numbers? Duke/Auburn. Most future NBA players? Duke/Florida. Want the better defenses? Houston/Auburn. Want the better offenses? Duke/Florida. Best Shot Volume teams? Houston/Florida. Best records in close games? Houston/Auburn. Prefer games against non-conference competition only? Duke/Auburn. Prefer to pick based on which schools have a Popeyes closest nearby? Houston/Florida.

The point is this: even if I pick both favorites, there’s just a 30% chance I get these games right. That’s how close these are.

So, if you were picking the games based on recency bias, Shot Volume, and/or Popeyes locations, you got the national title game correct. I picked off the the ratings consensus, I guess, and missed both. That feels right!

This game is a mammoth for many reasons, but chief among them is that this will be just the second time ever that in back-to-back attempts we’ve had multiple top three KenPom teams in the title game. It could have been #1 vs. #4, #1 vs. #3, #2 vs. #4, or #2 vs. #3. The third-most likely title game was that last option…and here we are. Expect anything different?

Beyond that, the narratives are quite special. Houston, the best defense in the sport, just defeated the best offense. Their reward: playing the second-best offense, per KenPom. Florida, arguably the hottest team in the sport, defeated the overall #1 seed thanks to more Walter Clayton heroics after a month full of Walter Clayton heroics. Their reward: their fourth game against a top-8 defense in three weeks, and the best opponent 3PT% they’ve faced since January 31, 2024 against Kentucky.

The tagline for Saturday’s action on the newsletter was “armageddon followed by more armageddon.” This game is more like if armageddon mutated.

Akira (1988)

If you enjoy the concept of basketball as a battle of ancient gods, this is an Achilles vs. Hector type of game. Let’s roll. And since this is the final game, this is $0.00 to read.

When Florida has the ball

On one hand, I am tempted to write “they have Walter Clayton” here and leave it at that. Because, well, they have Walter Clayton. Since March 1, Clayton is on a mondo heater: 66% at the rim, 45% from three, 21.8 PPG, and a 130 ORtg on 26% USG. The only player with better all-around stats from March 1 onward is Nique Clifford, who had to single-handedly lift a 12 seed into the Round of 32.

Part of the difficulty of saying “go stop this guy” is that there aren’t many proven ways to stop this particular version of him. The last team to actually stuff him for 40 minutes was Texas A&M, who held Clayton to 10 points on 13 shot attempts, and even then Florida still won by 19 thanks to heroic performances from the supporting cast. When your list of play types on Synergy looks like this:

There is no one-size-fits-all solution. The solution is to pray, and after all, it is Lent so perhaps that will be the Houston choice to begin with.

There is no smart analytical play here, either. Clayton has put up 1.13 points per shot on jumpers overall, 1.18 on catch-and-shoots, 1.09 on pull-up jumpers, and 1.2 points per attempt at the rim. He’s good-not-great below the free throw line but it largely hasn’t mattered. Florida’s best course of action, and the one that has benefitted them most in March, is not the pick-and-roll - though obviously still great - but to get Clayton going in handoff actions.

In the NCAA Tournament, Florida’s run the sixth-highest percentage of these actions per 100 possessions of the 68 participating teams. While the pure number of games played does skew that a bit, we’ve seen Clayton score 16 points off of dribble/screen handoffs over the last four games alone after scoring 11 in the entire month of February and 13 in the first seven games of March. Todd Golden and the Florida staff have begun signaling for these more frequently as a means of perimeter misdirection, adapting to the P&R overplay Auburn had to do to stay out of drop coverage.

The problem, at least for Clayton, would be a Houston system whose least-used opposing play type was the dribble handoff. Houston chases these so well on the perimeter that only twice or thrice a game is an opponent actually able to run actions like these correctly. As an example, Alabama, who normally runs 6-7 a game per Synergy, got off a total of two. If Florida can’t get rolling downhill on these, they’ll have to adjust to the adjustment.

Getting much of anything against a Houston defense as the primary ball handler is always a severe difficulty, but do you wanna know who quietly had a fantastic game against it? Cooper Flagg! Not that Walter Clayton is Cooper Flagg in terms of overall talent or an NBA future, but as a college basketball player in April 2025, Walter Clayton could be as impactful in a single game as Flagg was. Against UH, Flagg went for 27 on 19 shots, had a 127 ORtg on 35% USG, and had just one turnover. Frankly, Clayton may need to copy that exact statline to get Florida over the top.

If not Clayton, I would look for a specific action Houston has been vulnerable to this year and one that Florida’s conference-mates Tennessee managed to produce several open-but-unsuccessful looks on. While Houston’s been quite nice at basically everything defensively for ages now, one of the few areas they can be somewhat ‘got’ is on off-ball screens. Tennessee ran twice as many against them as any other opponent did this year; it didn’t work out but it created a lot of open looks.

All of Alijah Martin, Clayton, and Will Richard get sets similar to these run for them from time to time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flare screen run for Clayton in particular; it’s been one of his most frequent off-ball actions this year. There’s also the more ‘pure’ straight-up screen that we see a lot of these days. It strikes me as the best way to get Houston’s bigs away from the paint and ‘involved’ in a way that can cause some amount of frustration. This set run against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament championship game is a beauty, and a repeat of it wouldn’t shock.

Now, of course, Florida will have to figure out how to beat the most aggressive defense in the country. Florida has played other elite defenses - Tennessee 3x, Maryland, Auburn twice - but none of those three offer nearly as much blitz coverage on ball screens (and certainly a seriously lowered rate of doubling in the post) that Houston does. At least compared to SEC competition, it’s an entirely unique opponent to have to draw, which says something given the quality of that conference.

Yet it’s a smart coach with a smart system and I imagine Florida will be able to find little pockets of offense to sustain themselves as they try and get over the top, one possession at a time. The blitziest defense Florida has drawn this year is Texas A&M, and while I’d argue they can’t count on shooting 14-33 (42.4%) from deep every time out, they almost used Clayton as a decoy at times to create opportunities for Richard, Thomas Haugh, and Alex Condon.

Houston doesn’t allow nearly as many open threes as A&M does, but the level of aggression displayed offers the opportunity for some launches from deep. UF dropped 44 points (also, 11 on dump-offs/cuts) on spot-ups against the Aggies. The way to score on Houston is the same way you would always try and score on Houston: quick, smart passes, attacking the backside of the defense and kicking out to the first open shooter you see. You can make the aggressiveness displayed here work against the Cougars; it’s just hard as hell to actually do it.

Basically if that A&M game is as close a simulation to Houston as the Gators have played, and it’s a worn copy at best, this has to be a huge Will Richard (or Condon, or Haugh) game for Florida to lift the trophy at the end of the night. Richard got a ton of spot-up looks in that A&M game thanks to the aggressiveness A&M displayed that forced faster ball movement. If he hits them here, Florida’s path to a victory widens greatly. If he can’t…well.

If I’m thinking of theoretical targets for a Florida win here stats-wise it looks something like this: 8+ made threes, 11 or fewer turnovers, and a 2PT% of…ah, 49% or better. 49% because in the six games Florida got held to 77 or less this year, they didn’t shoot above 48.4% from two in any of them. They still went 5-1 in those games, FWIW. Did you know that Florida is pretty good? Florida is pretty good, even when bad.

When Houston has the ball

The way I’ve heard it put as it pertains to the Houston offense is that you know what you’re gonna get, but the way you actually get it in a given game has some variance. Sometimes LJ Cryer goes on a heater and hits six threes; sometimes Milos Uzan hits a bunch of floaters; sometimes Emanuel Sharp and his from-the-beltline shooting form is capable of shooting 5-7 from three. Alternately, sometimes, J’Wan Roberts ruins your frontcourt and goes for 20 & 8. For a team that doesn’t play the mathball style, they have a lot of ways to solve for X. Kelvin mastered algebra at a young age.

I think the Auburn game is pretty informational here in that it highlights the bounds of which Tournament basketball can expose all of your warts and your wins. In that game, Auburn had Florida’s P&R coverage (mostly at the level) in a tizzy in the first half, highlighting a growing concern for Florida over the last month. While the actual point of attack defense has been largely pretty good, the bigs’ rotation has become a serious issue, highlighted in games like Texas Tech (16 points allowed to rollers) and UConn (21 allowed to cutters/rollers). Florida hasn’t held opposing rollers under 1 PPP (min. 5 possessions) since March 14.

Given the lack of doubling, that could lead to Roberts just wrecking the Florida frontcourt in 1-on-1 battles. I’ve covered previously the odd Achilles heel that is 1-on-1 post defense for the Gators, now in the 37th-percentile in post-up D and 73rd and falling in roll man defense. If Milos Uzan is firing correctly in terms of timing his passes, this could be the J’Wan Roberts Game when we look back on it later.

The post-up defense aspect is something to watch for, too; most bigs usually can’t overpower UF’s frontcourt, but Roberts does have weird strength despite not being all that efficient in 1-on-1 battles this year. Golden likely sees this as an area to stay 1-on-1 and not over-devote to a resource that lurks around the national average in post-up efficiency, but considering this will be the least-aggressive post defense Roberts has drawn all season, he may yet have a big day.

Uzan also offers an intriguing piece here. He comes and goes as it pertains to finding his own shot, but as a shot creator and playmaker he’s quite special. I do find it interesting that amongst the other elite playmaking PGs Florida drew this year (Zakai Zeigler, RJ Davis, Mark Sears), each had at least one quality outing. Zeigler went for 23 and 8 assists in the SEC title game. Sears: 30 & 6 in Alabama’s home finale. Davis had 29 and was the best player on the floor in mid-December. It’s plausible this could also be the Milos Uzan game.

If so, Uzan has executed the P&R to near-perfection and Florida is allowing him to get to his spots on the floor. Uzan has a lot of spots this year, but two that have been especially favorable for him in these P&R sets are the top of the key and just beneath the free throw line. Uzan has shot an astonishing 44% from the left wing or top of the key this year on threes and loves to come off of a pick to those exact spots, but if Florida falls for a head fake or comes out a little too far, Uzan has also been fabulous at getting to the left elbow or a hair inside of it all year long. Florida, analytically-minded as ever, generally prefers to funnel teams to the midrange…which is pretty much exactly what Houston and crew wants. It’ll be a fascinating push-and-pull.

Beyond some sort of surprise JoJo Tugler/Terrence Arceneaux/Mylik Wilson/Ja’Vier Francis explosion, the rest of the gameplan is pretty much going to be built on LJ Cryer and/or Emanuel Sharp hitting jumpers. Outside of one mondo stinker against Purdue, Cryer has been nails for essentially three straight months, shooting 44% from deep in Big 12 play. Even with that Purdue game he’s shot 19-42 (45%) from three in the NCAA Tournament. Sharp, meanwhile, has been en fuego since an 0-fer against Arizona in mid-February, shooting 41.7% from deep.

Both can and will take shots off the dribble, but Cryer is a good bit better when rushed than Sharp is. They get two very distinct style of three-point attempts: Cryer from off-ball flares and pindowns (also dribble handoffs), Sharp from kickouts when Uzan (or Roberts) gets paint penetration. One is theoretically easier to defend than the other, but Sharp’s wonky fadeaway release allows him to get his shot off over just about anyone. It speaks to said release that he has roughly the exact same results whether guarded or open.

The Cryer aspect is what interests me a bit more. Florida’s not been one to overhelp on drives to the rim much at all this year, instead generally choosing to let their frontcourt handle it or stuff the drive at the free throw line. The shrink-and-kick threes Sharp gets a lot of may be limited in this game as such. It’s Cryer’s endless running that I would be looking for here.

One action in particular is of note. Florida has defended off-ball screens poorly this year, sitting in the 35th-percentile of defensive efficiency in that category. They’ve faced more off-ball screening than 91% of college defenses, which to me means teams see that as the way to draw the beefy frontcourt out of the paint and into an area where they’re more likely to make mistakes. If they don’t come out, it creates generally open looks, which is not what you’d like to have happen against a team shooting 40% from three with three guys shooting 42% or better over the last two months.

Cryer fascinates me because of his depth and flexibility on these screens. In his last three years of college basketball, Cryer has shot 37% on off-ball screens to his right…and 48% on off-ball screens to his left. Now, that first number would be more in the territory of 40-45% without an oddly weak 2024-25, so he’s still a relatively equal threat both ways. Yet one trend persists through all three years: on off-ball screens to his right, he drives to the midrange almost twice as often as when going to his left. For a guy like Golden who is aware that 3 > 2, I figure that stopping Cryer from coming off a flare screen to his left is mission critical.

As for Houston’s numbers to look for, I’m thinking the usuals: 11+ offensive rebounds, 8 or fewer turnovers, 9+ made threes. Per Evan Miyakawa, Houston’s 22-1 this year when they get at least two of those three.

Did you get all that? All you’ve got to do to win if you’re Florida is not overplay the ballscreens, not underplay the ballscreens, don’t come out too high on the perimeter, don’t come out too low on the perimeter, don’t double the post because it creates kickout threes, don’t single the post because Houston’s sixth-year PF might score 20, don’t foul, don’t not foul. Also, don’t give up offensive rebounds, but you also need to score in transition in this game, so don’t put all five behind the ball against the best transition defense in America. Easy. Why doesn’t everyone do it?

Thoughts, predictions, etc.

THING TO CTRL+F THE BOXSCORE FOR: Offensive rebounds. The pure number of OREBs in a game is usually not all that informational - teams that miss a lot of shots will probably get a higher number of OREBs than an opponent who hits a lot of shots - but in a close game like this it’s pretty useful. Houston had two losses all season, both in overtime and by a combined 4 points, when getting 12 or more offensive rebounds. Florida: 19-2 when getting 12+ OREBs. If you can calculate OREB% (it’s just OREBs divided by total number of opportunities), Florida gave up 35% or higher nine times this year, while Houston gave up that number 11 times. If either can protect their own boards at all it will help immensely.

THING TO CHECK THE SCOREBOARD FOR: Look, it’s 2025. You can use StatBroadcast, and you probably (?) know the password for it by now. See how many possessions this game has at halftime. Florida has not played a regulation game below 63 possessions since January 2023. Houston’s average - AVERAGE - is 61.7. If Houston has held this game to 33 possessions or fewer in the first half I think they’re playing the game they want to play.

X-FACTOR, FLORIDA: Rueben Chinyelu. In the first half of the Auburn game, the Tigers went at Chinyelu over and over until Golden was forced to remove him for Thomas Haugh for a prolonged stretch. Chinyelu found his footing in the second half and had the game-winning rebound, but a similar poor start can’t happen twice.

X-FACTOR, HOUSTON: JoJo Tugler. Duh. If this is a Good Tugler day - plays 29 minutes, blocks four shots, gets back five offensive rebounds, doesn’t foul out - Houston is winning the basketball game. If it’s a Bad Tugler day - plays 20 minutes, blocks two shots, scores two points, and fouls out - Houston’s path thins a little bit.

THE STRUCTURAL REQUIREMENTS OF SPORTSWRITING FORCE ME TO DECLARE: That this is probably the best on-paper title game since Gonzaga/Baylor in 2021, though hopefully less of a bust than that one was. There’s a weird amount of shooting variance at hand in each direction here that could cause a surprise under- or over-performance for either team, but in general the base expectation of this being a Certified Banger should come to fruition.

I think that Houston’s path is more stable than Florida’s. The Gators would need another Clayton 25+ point outing and at least one of the supporting cast to step up and score something like 17-20, which is far from impossible but has not been something others have done against Houston all that often. Cooper Flagg put together what I’d argue is a top-three performance against the Houston defense of the last two or three years, had a 35% usage rate, went 8-8 on free throws and 3-4 from three, and still managed to barely scrape his way to 27 points. Clayton may be an equal or slightly lesser performer; expecting another 30-bomb feels unlikely.

I think this is a Little Things game in the sense that Houston may be just a hair better in specific areas. The Cougars should be a bit better in both the rebounding and turnover departments. They’re likely to shoot a tiny bit better from three. In general this Tournament, games have been dictated by the more extreme team in terms of pace, which leads me to believe this is probably a game played closer to the 63 or 64-possession mark instead of Florida’s standard 70.

It could also go the complete other way. Florida’s going to take a lot of threes in this game; if this is a game where they shoot 11-25 from deep, they’re probably going to win unless Houston manages to match them. But if this is what it looks like - two different-yet-similar teams, one of whom is just a little bit better than the other on the whole - then I think I’ve arrived at the same place I arrived at on Selection Sunday.

Houston 71, Florida 68.