2025 men's NCAA Tournament Elite Eight preview (Saturday)
Chalk or chaos? I imagine you know the answer
Don’t adjust your eyeballs: this, along with 2007, is the calmest NCAA Tournament we have ever seen. Now, I should note that in 2007, we saw two lower seeds win in this Elite Eight, with one of the victors having a sub-20 defense and the other a sub-20 offense. So, hey: Texas Tech (or Alabama) and Michigan State, it’s your time, fellas.
Alternately! In 2019, when we saw two lower seeds win this round after mostly chalk, it was…well, a team with a sub-20 offense/top-5 defense and a team with a top-5 offense/sub-25 defense. Again: Texas Tech (or Alabama) and Michigan State, it’s your time, fellas. Or in 2009, when we saw two lower seeds win, it was…alright, you get the point.
The first half of the first preview here is free; you have to sign up for $20/year (or a monthly, whatever) to get the full thing. On with the show.
(1) Florida (-6.5) vs. (3) Texas Tech, 6:09 PM ET, TBS
Like a cockroach in nuclear war or perhaps an unwanted someone in your direct messages, these Gators simply will not go away. By some distance, their defeat of Maryland was easily their most impressive performance of this Tournament, and comparing it to Texas Tech having to pull off the third-largest comeback in Sweet Sixteen history to top a thoroughly mid Arkansas team, we can of course determine that Florida is going to romp here to an easy win. After all, history’s on their side.
Still, there are some plausible paths. For one, Florida has enjoyed exceptional shooting variance in their favor this Tournament, outshooting opponents by +12.2% from three and +13% on all jumpers. It’s not been for lack of trying; Maryland and UConn have just gone 9-33 on catch-and-shoot threes versus an expected hit rate of 11-33. That wouldn’t have changed the Maryland game, but obviously, flip a bucket in the UConn game somewhere and UF might not be here.
I must also note that despite constantly saying ShotQuality Isn’t Everything, the results of these two so far are…puzzling. SQ graded the Florida win over UConn as an 89-82 UConn win, while Thursday’s 87-71 win over Maryland was graded as more like an 82-77 win. Meanwhile, Texas Tech:
Played roughly as well as indicated against Drake and was 3PT varianced out of a double-digit win over an Arkansas team where they got the equivalent of 13 more shot attempts. While Florida’s been good and has enjoyed serious positive shooting variance, Texas Tech has played well and has the third-best 2PT% delta behind Alabama and Duke, yet has had to squeak out two of their three wins thanks to losing the 3PT% battle by 11.8%. That’s how you end up in a 45-minute battle with an Arkansas team who rated in the 27th-percentile nationally in jumper efficiency.
So, sure, if this game is played by the Tournament versions of Florida and Texas Tech we’ve seen so far, Florida probably wins by 8-12 points. If that actually does occur, I can’t say I’m surprised; Florida is a top-three metrics team for pretty obvious reasons and the best team left in the field from the best conference in the nation this year. But if 3PT% reverts to the norm both ways, this gets interesting fast and becomes a 40-minute game potentially down to the final possession.