2025 Selection Sunday viewing guide
TODAY
Well, look, let’s keep this short. It’s Selection Sunday. You know how it works. They have a whole show for all of this at 6 PM Eastern on CBS. Pretty big thing!
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Who are the 1 seeds?
Uh…I think this is decided. Sorry to the SEC.
The overall 1 seed is probably Auburn, even with their 1-3 finish to the season, especially because as much as the committee wants to say otherwise the interest in doing a full re-bracketing amongst 12 people dependent on the result of the SEC Championship Game (or any other game) is probably pretty small. It is why I would prefer a Pairwise-style system at this point, but whatever, different article.
The only team that’s actually close in terms of Wins Above Bubble is actually Houston, not Duke, but regardless, the overall 1 seed battle doesn’t really thrill me because it’s not gonna make a real difference in terms of region preference. Auburn wants Atlanta and so does Houston (though as a note and a quick edit, I saw Big 12 writer Joseph Duarte note that Houston has requested the West Region), but Duke very likely wants Newark and presumably relishes the opportunity of taking the Cooper Flagg Show to the NYC area.
Meanwhile, the final 1 seed is probably Florida. I am aware that they play Tennessee, who is also technically in contention for a 1 seed, but frankly Florida’s resume is better almost regardless of what Tennessee does and the only thing that could meaningfully happen is Tennessee passing up Alabama in seeding order. (That would likely change where Tennessee and Alabama each head for the first weekend.) My ‘probably’ here means it’s 80% Florida, 20% Tennessee and the 20% would have to be Tennessee winning that game by 15+ or something unexpected. Even so I don’t think it really matters, unless the committee has completely reversed the logic they’ve followed for several years w/r/t Power Five conference tournaments.
Which of Tennessee/Alabama gets Lexington?
Let’s say Florida ends up being the final 1 seed just to keep this clean. Tennessee and Alabama are likely next in whatever order, but the order is important. Or at least I’d think it would be. The pods this year are slightly unusual in that two 1 seeds will be headed to the same one (Duke and Florida to Raleigh) and another (Auburn to Lexington) has been decided for months.
That leaves one final spot available in Lexington for either Alabama or Tennessee, both of whom want it very badly because the next-closest available option for each is either Cleveland (for Tennessee) or Wichita (for Alabama). Considerably further away than central Kentucky and not in their rival’s arena that they’d relish taking over, either would be a mild bummer.
In Tennessee’s case, however, getting Cleveland could be a secret win. BYU is projected as a 6, but in the event they’re moved to a 7, they couldn’t play in Cleveland due to it being a Friday/Sunday site. BYU can play at any of the Thursday/Friday ones, of course.
Who gets the last protected seeds?
I am going to wager that everyone in this screenshot is probably going to be a 1-4 seed.
That’s 14; you need 16. Here are your next-up candidates.
Arizona, who is next up on the consensus seed list and lost the Big 12 title game. They’ll finish 15th in WAB, but around 23rd in KPI and ~11th in a metrics average.
Purdue, who is 11th (??) in KPI but lost in the Big Ten quarterfinals as a favorite to Michigan.
Clemson, the third-best ACC team for whatever that counts. They finished somewhere between 15th-22nd in every resume metric and quality metric, so they’re very 5 seed-y at face value, but sometimes you rise up by consensus.
Michigan, who will play in the Big Ten Championship today and defeated Purdue head-to-head (moving to 2-1 overall against them) this weekend.
I left out Oregon, who is ahead of Michigan but left the Big Ten Tournament two days ago. The Ducks do have excellent resume metrics and finished 13th in Wins Above Bubble, but their quality metrics are pretty rough (average of 35th) and if you make the resume metrics argument for them, you have to make it for Louisville, who averaged out two spots ahead of them (11th to 13th).
Where do Memphis and Gonzaga land?
These are your two Test Cases of the year of how much certain things matter.
Memphis will enter Selection Sunday in the top 25 of all resume metrics and averaging around 18th. By that, you’d anticipate them to be a 5 seed. Then again, by NET (48th) and the Big Three resume metrics (average of 51st), you’re kind of surprised they’re even in the field. They may be rated below every single First Four team at KenPom on Monday morning. The consensus is an 8 seed, but it feels very appropriate that they’re rated anywhere from a 6 seed to a 9. We have no clue.
Gonzaga is the reverse: averaging 34th in resume metrics, but 8th in NET and top 10 in the predictive metrics. If we just seeded on the former, we’d see Gonzaga in an 8/9 game later this week. Yet only ~20% of bracket guys have them there, and some have them as high as a 5. We’re not gonna know until we know.
Who gets in?
Well, obviously. As of this morning, I’d say everyone north of this screenshot on the Bracket Matrix is safely in. I’d also argue the top three or four here are also safely in, but not safely beyond Dayton.
There are two main pieces still to move here:
VCU, who will play George Mason in the Atlantic 10 title game later. GMU’s not an at-large threat, but by winning, they’d potentially be a bid thief, taking someone off the bubble and making room for a VCU team that would presumably be sent to Dayton if they got in. Of course, VCU might miss it entirely, which would be pretty dumb but I’m aware of how high-major-slanted the committee has been in recent years.
UAB, who will play Memphis in the AAC title game later today. UAB isn’t an at-large candidate at all, and Memphis is safely in the field. If Memphis loses - they have a 27% chance - then that’s another bubble bid gone.
Anyway, I think all of Utah State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Vanderbilt are somewhere between ‘safely in’ and ‘in, but in Dayton.’ At minimum, that’s six of ten ‘final’ bubble spots accounted for, with it being six of nine (potentially) if VCU loses. Or six of eight if both VCU and Memphis lose. We could get in hairy territory. Do you go with…
UNC, the highest remaining team by Wins Above Bubble (41st)?
VCU, the best of the batch metrics-wise?
Xavier, above the 45th-place mark in WAB?
San Diego State, squarely at 45th?
UC Irvine, who’s ahead of all of Indiana, Boise State, Texas, and Ohio State in Wins Above Bubble?
Indiana, who’s 50th in WAB and has weak metrics but has…vibes? And some good Q1 wins?
Texas, who has 7 Q1 wins but also ranks 55th in WAB?
Ohio State, who…oh come on, if these guys get in we’re in hell.
Boise State, who rates ahead of Texas and Ohio State but left a pretty poor final impression against Colorado State in the MWC final?
My best guess based on what I’ve learned about the committee over the years is as follows.
Assuming VCU wins, the last four teams in the field are probably West Virginia, San Diego State, Indiana, and Boise State in some order. Indiana is the obvious ‘sexy’ pick this year because of their quality close, and in the Hoosiers’ defense, they haven’t lost a single game in Q2-Q4. I’m not sold that should matter, and their KPI of 35th - a truly atrocious metric - is propping up a resume that should otherwise sit outside the field. West Virginia took an awful loss in the Big 12 Tournament and has been bad for several weeks, but they still have to make the field. This feels like an appropriate landing spot for a very injured team with a Tournament resume.
San Diego State and Boise State feel like a classic “we can’t take just one without taking both” case to me. The Mountain West was a top-six league this year and nearly surpassed the ACC at one point in average NET. Boise’s WAB is less impressive than San Diego State’s, but Boise beat SDSU and went two rounds deeper in the conference tournament while also picking off conference leader New Mexico. There’s a real chance they’ve played themselves into the field. In this theory, the committee already penciled in Boise State into the field regardless of the MWC outcome and is merely opting into the contingency bracket they already had with them in.
Alternately, if VCU loses, the last four teams in the field would be West Virginia, San Diego State, VCU, and Indiana. I think. I honestly have no clue. And really, the chance that UC Irvine gets in is not as bonkers as you’d guess, but it runs almost entirely on the same logic that got 2018-19 Belmont (or actually, 2020-21 Wichita) in the field. I’m not getting my hopes up, because what it actually reminds me of is the 2018-19 UNC Greensboro team that probably would’ve gotten in in 2025.
If VCU and Memphis both lose, all bets are off. I really don’t know what comes of that, other than Indiana surely(?) being out as well as Boise State.
Lastly, here’s your Bubble Checklist for tomorrow. Save the below image to your phone or computer and check off as teams are announced. I think you’ve got, in all likelihood, 11 teams for 6 spots. (Just cross out VCU if they win the Atlantic 10 here in a couple hours and make it 10 for 5.)
In terms of likelihood to get in, Torvik ranks these teams as such based on their 10 most similar resumes: Vanderbilt, West Virginia, San Diego State, Xavier, VCU, Boise State, Texas, North Carolina, Indiana, UC Irvine, Texas.
Which 16 seeds go to the First Four?
For once, the 16 seed actually feels pretty delineated from everything else. There’s a chance that Norfolk State can jump up to the 15 line ahead of a Bryant or Omaha but it would be a mild surprise. Most likely, you will have four of the following five 16 seeds represent in the First Four:
American (Patriot League)
SIU-Edwardsville (OVC)
St. Francis (PA) (Northeast)
Jackson State or Alabama State (SWAC)
Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC)
I think the bottom three are near-locks. The fourth spot is between American and SIU-E and I think it’s about dead-even, so that’s something to watch for.
Who goes to what Round of 64/32 location?
Most of these are likely decided, but it bears repeating as to what the locations are/who may or may not be headed there.
Thursday/Saturday
REMINDER: BYU has to go to one of these.
Denver: This is probably where an Arizona would go if they end up a 4 seed, but no guarantee. The likelihood is that this is two 4 seeds, with a mild chance of some ‘lost’ 3 seed getting it.
Lexington: Auburn is headed here to face (presumably) a 16 seed First Four winner. The ‘winner’ of the Tennessee/Alabama battle will be the other 1-4 seed in this pod.
Providence: This will be the destination for St. John’s. The other 1-4 seed is a question mark. There’s a chance Maryland ends up here, but it might also be one of the ‘lost’ 4 seeds that has nowhere else to go.
Wichita: Houston will head to Wichita. (There’s an outside chance they draw a First Four squad instead of Auburn, but I don’t see why.) It is pretty likely the other team here is Texas Tech, with an outside chance of Iowa State instead, unless Tennessee passes up Alabama, in which case it might be Alabama.
Friday/Sunday
REMINDER: BYU CANNOT go to one of these for religious reasons.
Cleveland: Michigan State is a near-lock to end up here on Friday. The other team here will either be Tennessee (if Alabama gets Lexington ahead of them) or a wild card, likely one of Kentucky/Wisconsin/Maryland.
Milwaukee: I think this is a total roulette wheel. Any of Kentucky, Iowa State, Wisconsin, or Maryland are options…along with whatever leftover teams there are. No clue.
Raleigh: Finally, a simple one: this is the domain of Duke and Florida, two 1 seeds. One will play a First Four 16 seed, likely Duke.
Seattle: I think Seattle is praying that either Arizona, Oregon, or both end up there. Otherwise, again, roulette wheel. Texas A&M honestly could be there.
Happy Sunday. More later once we see a bracket. Like and subscribe.
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