2025 women's NCAA Tournament Round of 32 preview (Monday)
Eight more stops on the Tournament Train
Hey! Guess what? There is another tournament going on at this very time in history. One with even fewer upsets than the men’s side. The bad news: this women’s NCAA Tournament is precisely as calm (and, well, dull) as the men’s one. The good news: that means we should have several really good Round of 32 battles today. Hopefully you caught Kentucky/Kansas State yesterday, because that was great.
Anyway, I wanted to do this for yesterday’s games (and generally do it for both NCAAM and NCAAW R32 onward), but I didn’t have enough time to put out a set of previews I would’ve been happy with. Enjoy today’s games previewed in a similar style to the men’s ones. First one is free, rest are paywalled, but there’s video and analysis here I am confident you’re not going to find many other places on the internet, if any.
Let’s start with a goodie.
(2) North Carolina State (-6.5) vs. (7) Michigan State, 12 PM ET, ESPN
There are a few highly enjoyable tactics battles this round thanks to a total lack of upsets; all of the four or five best games here today are legitimate must-watches. I’d have this fourth or so, which means it’s still an A-level game. Both teams need to hold the other under 70, and both presumably understand that’s easier said than done in a game expected to shake out around 71-73 possessions.
I do favor NCSU here for the sole reason their path to offense is a bit more sustainable than Michigan State’s in a one-game setting. The Wolfpack downhill attack forces the defense to make a tough choice: can I hang with these drivers 1-on-1 all the way to the rim, or will I have to commit a second defender to avoid bleeding layup after layup, which opens up kickout threes? It sounds like a simple offense but it’s been a top-10 one this year, with five (!) different players making 50 or more shots at the rim and five making 20 or more threes.
Michigan State won’t need that on their own end in half-court, but they need to score early and often in transition to beat out NC State. I’ve liked their two-way post play all season long, and NCSU’s packed-in defense really hasn’t been tested all that much in true post-ups. That’s an area of opportunity I’d look for with a Spartan offense that likely can’t shoot its way out of a deficit and probably has to hold NC State below that 70-point mark to have a chance, especially with a serious projected deficit in free throw attempts and fouls in general.
THING TO WATCH FOR: Can NCSU hang with Michigan State’s post sets? MSU’s efficiency in these isn’t amazing, but by pure brute force they’ve overpowered opponents in them for most of this season thanks to Grace VanSlooten being a skilled operator. If she’s dominating early, NCSU will either have to double or zone, neither of which they’d want to do.
THING TO CTRL+F THE BOXSCORE FOR: How many paint points can Michigan State come up with? NC State is 14-0 this year when holding their opposition below 26 PITP. 13-6 otherwise is still pretty good, but it opens the door to a minor upset.
PREDICTION: NC State 74, Michigan State 66.