A brief overview of 2022-23 NCAA basketball
6,000+ words on the 1987 film Raising Arizona. just kidding it's basketball
I’ll keep this intro short because what’s ahead is more than 6,000 words. This is not a straight-forward 2022-23 preview; it’s more of a list of things I’m interested in this season, whether it’s specific teams or specific games. You’ll find the most interesting teams in every level of KenPom, the most fun offenses, the toughest defenses, and much more in here.
Onward we go:
10 most interesting teams in each 10 of KenPom
1-10: Virginia. Everyone who watches college basketball has very strong feelings about Virginia. The average fan’s is negative because they win a lot of games 62-51 and whatnot. However: efficiency is good, and it is inherently intriguing to watch the closest thing basketball has to peak Atletico Madrid. The most interesting thing about them is their KenPom ranking. Virginia checks in at 5th; none of the other three sites I use have them higher than 13th. If UVA’s really a top-five team, it’s going to be an insane three-way race at the top in the ACC.
11-20: San Diego State. This is going to be Dutcher’s sixth season at the helm in San Diego. He’s made three NCAA Tournaments, finished top 30 or better in KenPom three times, and has had a top 25 or better defense three seasons running. Again, this is at San Diego State, which is not exactly Stanford (for example) in terms of resources. On paper, this team projects to be nearly as good as Dutcher’s 2019-20 team, which started 26-0 and would’ve gotten a 1 or 2 seed had the NCAA Tournament happened. I’m very much a believer in this group as a top 15 team. If they manage to even become acceptable on offense, they’re a 3 seed or higher. This is the most hyped Mountain West team since 2018-19 Nevada.
21-30: Michigan. Juwan Howard’s fourth year at Michigan will be fascinating. He’s already overachieved (2020-21), underachieved (2021-22), and achieved to expectations (2019-20). What will this fourth season bring, one where a legitimate Player of the Year contender in Hunter Dickinson came back to play for him but also a roster that will have three or four new starters? To me, a successful year with this roster means Michigan is at least a top 25 team or better. Plus, this will be the worst Big Ten since 2017-18, which only escalates a need to take advantage.
31-40: St. John’s. I seem to think this is a harder job than the average CBB media member does. The last top 100 recruit St. John’s got was in 2016 (Shamorie Ponds); that was after the first year of an NBA legend, Chris Mullin, being in charge. Aside from that, the last time St. John’s pulled in multiple four-star recruits in a single class was 2012. This isn’t the job it was in the 1990s. Could it be? Sure, but it takes a long time to do that. All this said, this is the year Anderson really needs to take a step forward. An NCAA Tournament bid needs to happen; St. John’s will offer a starting lineup entirely made of upperclassmen. If they can finally get some luck to go their way - St. John’s is 13-22 in games decided by 6 or fewer points under Anderson - they can make some noise.
41-50: Miami FL. Miami’s entire athletics program is one fascinating experiment in what the NIL era can buy you. Nijel Pack will get more money to play for them this year than he may make in one season the rest of his life. It’s great for the kids. Will it work on the court? More importantly, will it work for an older head coach who was looking like a serious retirement candidate prior to a surprise Elite Eight run? I’m still not convinced that Miami’s problems, which had existed for years, are suddenly fixed. This is a team that has a legitimate top 20-25 group in terms of roster talent, but it’s also the same team that went a combined 14-7 against Quadrants 2 and 3 last year.
51-60: Syracuse. Every Syracuse discussion has to start with the obvious question: is this Jim Boeheim’s last ride? His two clear best players (Joe Girard and Jesse Edwards) are seniors. While freshman Judah Mintz is one of the two best recruits (alongside Benny Williams) Boeheim has pulled in since 2016, I don’t know if that can mask how awful the Orange defense has become over the last few years. This group can do something in the NCAA Tournament once they get there, but it’s the question of if they’ll get there that’s interesting to watch.
61-70: North Texas. Grant McCasland is merely my favorite coach in America that hasn’t progressed to a big (i.e., Big Six) job yet. It’s baffling as to why. I did work on a metric this offseason that measures coaching performance against on-roster talent. McCasland’s North Texas program has been 9th-best in overachieving and third-best the last two seasons. Prefer KenPom? They’re 4th-best at overachieving their preseason projections. This is all a way to say that if trends hold, this is a team that should end up in the mid-40s or higher and be a serious March threat. (Also a way of saying that the C-USA really should be a two-bid league.)
71-80: Drake. If Darian DeVries can make the NCAA Tournament again - twice in three years - the Nebraska job should be his. Drake is more interesting than that reason alone, though. DeVries offers a starting lineup with four seniors and a sophomore, son Tucker, who may be the team’s best player. There may well be four players on this team who average 11+ PPG, and it’ll be a team on track for an 11 or 12 seed if it wins the Missouri Valley.
81-90: Toledo. Three times Tod Kowalczyk has won the MAC regular season title while at Toledo; three times he’s failed to actually get into the NCAA Tournament. It’s between them and Louisiana Tech for the best program in America to not have made the NCAA Tournament over the last 25 years. He figures to have the best team in the conference once again, and four of his five projected starters are seniors. If not now, when?
91-100: Louisville. There were a few different directions to go with this pick, but I chose Louisville simply because I find this experiment really fascinating. Kenny Payne was known as the frontcourt whisperer at Kentucky and a premier recruiter. Louisville’s making a significant bet that he’s going to be more successful in recruiting battles than Chris Mack was. Can he match Mack from an Xs-and-Os perspective? I’m excited to see. Given their projection of 13th in a 15-team ACC, expectations are very low. If Payne can pull off one signature win - any of Arkansas, Duke, North Carolina, or Virginia would do - he’ll have real momentum heading into 2023-24.
Most fun offenses
Gonzaga. Barring a serious surprise, this will be the best offense in college basketball in 2022-23. Nothing I write will help you understand it better than just watching it.
North Carolina. I’m skeptical of them being the #1 team in America but I’m all in on this being a top-5 offense. Over their final ten games last year, they ranked 11th in offensive efficiency, which seems good for a team bringing most everyone back.
Iowa. The last five years of Iowa basketball: 19th, 15th, 5th, 3rd, and 4th in offensive efficiency. Outside of Gonzaga, they’re the closest this sport has to a sure thing.
Arizona. What if you took Gonzaga’s offense and made one of their best players extremely hateable? Well, it’s a recipe to watch most every game that team plays.
Furman. This may be Bob Richey’s last year before he takes a bigger job. Become a true Basketball Hipster and Watch Furman before everyone else tells you to do so in February.
Most terrorizing defenses
San Diego State. For all of the hatred Virginia receives, San Diego State has been statistically more likely to play basketball that some - NOT ME, PLEASE NOTE - would describe as “terrorism.” Please note that I did not say that. Others have. Anyway, this is the best defense college basketball will have in 2021-22.
Arkansas. I remain deeply skeptical of Arkansas’s offense, but the absolute floor for this group defensively is top-15, and more realistically top 5-10. If you like guys with long arms getting a lot of steals and blocks, this is your team.
Tennessee. They’ve finished 5th and 3rd in defensive efficiency the last two years and reloaded in a major way this offseason, mixing young and old talent into something that could be pretty special. If they finish outside the top 10 I’d be very surprised.
Houston. You have seen this meat grinder grind meat two Marches in a row now. Get ready for a third by watching them from November to April.
Virginia. Sort of covered above, but if Tony Bennett’s team really is going to make the return to the world of a top 10-15 team it’s going to require a significant defensive lift. They’re certainly capable, given recent history.
Most interesting mid-majors (non-Gonzaga edition)
San Diego State. This is the most-hyped Mountain West team - and really non-Gonzaga mid-major, period - since 2018-19 Nevada. Hopefully they’ll live up to the billing in a better way. Key games: 11/21 vs. Ohio State, 12/10 vs. St. Mary’s (CA), 1/7 at Wyoming
Dayton. They did beat Kansas last year, but it took Dayton about two months of the season to get serious. Once they did, they were excellent. Dayton rose from 105th in KenPom on January 8 to 45th by the end of the season, and they bring back a large chunk of their roster. Get familiar with them before they’re a 6-7 seed. Key games: 12/7 at Virginia Tech; 2/17 at Loyola Chicago; 3/3 at Saint Louis
Saint Louis. Projected 39th in KenPom is a team that fought pretty hard for an NCAAT spot last season and enters this year as a likely entrant. Plenty to like here: a fabulous starting five, a legit star in Javonte Perkins, a terrific point guard in Yuri Collins, and lots of points. Key games: 11/19 vs. Maryland; 1/18 at Loyola Chicago; 3/3 vs. Dayton
UAB. Andy Kennedy won the C-USA last year and he’ll simply do it again this year. They have an identifiable major star in Jelly Walker and might be favored in 28 of 30 games. Key games: 12/10 at West Virginia; 1/5/22 at Florida Atlantic; 2/9 at North Texas
Wyoming. My favorite team to watch last year loses all-star post player Graham Ike but returns Hunter Maldonado, simply one of the most watchable basketball players this sport has given me in the last five years. Key games: 12/21 vs. St. Mary’s (CA); 1/7 vs. San Diego State; 2/11 at Boise State
HMs: Loyola Chicago, North Texas, Drake, Liberty, Furman
WW’s Favorite Conference Games
The rules for this are simple: the best conference game that all 32 of the conferences provide. One per conference. A lot of these are just #1 in the conference vs. #2, but in other areas, I’ve selected the two most enjoyable teams to watch, which is what I figure most people want to know about.
America East: February 25, Vermont at Bryant. Nothing surprising here; these are the two best teams in an otherwise pretty bad AE. Of special interest here is that Vermont has a 4.6% chance of going undefeated in conference play, which sounds tiny but is the third-highest figure of any team in America. There’s a decent chance they enter this game with zero or one conference losses.
American: March 5, Houston at Memphis. These are the only two AAC teams that I feel confident in making the NCAA Tournament; more importantly, this will be Houston’s first Quadrant 1 game in nearly two months.
ACC: February 4, North Carolina at Duke. Well, duh.
Atlantic 10: March 3, Dayton at Saint Louis. The final weekend of the regular season is packed, starting with this banger on a Friday night. These are the two best teams (on paper) in the A-10, a league that really should get two or even three teams into the Big Dance. This also has a decent chance of determining the regular season champion.
Atlantic Sun: January 19, Liberty at Jacksonville. I imagine most people more or less know who Liberty is by now, as they win this conference basically every year. Jacksonville is the intriguing piece. Jordan Mincy is a second-year head coach and former Mike White assistant; all he did in Year One was win more games than anyone has since FREAKING 1971. So that guy’s gonna go places, presumably. This is one of maybe three regular season conference games I could see Liberty losing and it’s on a winter Thursday night, so fire up ESPN+ and get to work.
Big East: January 20, Villanova at St. John’s. There’s a number of interesting directions to go here in the Big East, including any game involving two of Villanova/Creighton/Xavier, but this one stands out for two main reasons: 1. It comes after a six-game stretch in which Villanova doesn’t play a Quadrant 1 game; 2. It’s part of a three-game Prove It stretch for Mike Anderson where St. John’s plays UConn, Villanova, and Creighton in a 10-day span. If he wants to make the tournament, they’ve gotta win at least one.
Big Ten: January 5, Indiana at Iowa. The Big Ten false-starts its conference schedule in early December every year, but this represents the real start of conference play and it’s a banger. Iowa’s offense is always worth tuning in to see, and it feels like this game more than many to follow will tell you a little about if Indiana’s really worth the hype.
Big 12: February 18, Baylor at Kansas. You heard about these teams? You seen these teams?
Big Sky: January 21, Montana State at Montana. This is a rivalry game, for one, but it also projects to determine the Big Sky regular season champion. That does actually matter, unlike most mid-major conferences. Prior to 2020-21, the Big Sky regular season champion had won the conference tournament nine years in a row, the longest streak I know of. This is on a Saturday at 9 PM ET, so, like, go hang out with a friend, but pull up the Matthew Loves Ball highlights on Sunday morning while half-watching Southampton/Aston Villa.
Big South: January 11, Longwood at UNC Asheville. This one is for the Tennessee faithful. Remember Drew Pember? Remember that gangly Bearden graduate that played in Knoxville for a couple years? Well, he’s merely the Big South Preseason Player of the Year and dumped 41 points in a game last season. I really enjoy the way both teams play, so for a Wednesday night in January, you could do much, much worse.
Big West: January 16, UC Santa Barbara at UC Irvine. Winner gets the Cal job. Just kidding! I wouldn’t wish that upon anyone. Anyway, these are the two best teams in a conference many don’t think about until mid-March, but it’s a great stylistic clash. UCSB plays smash-mouth basketball and wants to get to the rim and free throw line as often as possible; UCI’s offense is generally a horror show but their defense is one of the best-designed systems in America, particularly at protecting the rim.
Colonial: February 23, Towson at Charleston. The CAA was a bit more exciting a few years ago when seemingly every team in the conference was shooting 37% or better from three, but these two teams are fun groups. Towson is nasty on the boards, while Charleston plays at the fastest pace in America and in the coolest city in the South.
Conference USA: February 9, UAB at North Texas. Here lies the Will Warren Game of the Year. I was all in on UAB last year and was thrilled to see them crack the field as a 12 seed; North Texas should’ve been in as well. UAB offers a legitimate star in Jelly Walker and a very fun offense; UNT plays a defensive style that would make Tennessee fans say “I recognize that!” and reminds me a lot of, like, Illinois football circa 2022. If both of these coaches are in the same jobs in February 2024, it will be a moral failing on behalf of any athletic director going through a coaching search in March 2023. Fine by me; I need these two to be 11 seeds in March every single year going forward.
Horizon: December 31, Fort Wayne at Youngstown State. This projects to be the worst Horizon League in the KenPom era, and also, I think this is the day the College Football Playoff starts. But a game had to be picked, and these are the two best teams.
Ivy League: January 21, Penn at Yale. Contrary to the above, this should be a pretty entertaining year of Ivy hoops. After a year off due to COVID, the Ivy came back swinging with some interesting players and quality offenses. The race at the top is a mess between these two and Princeton, but this figures to be a key piece in determining the regular season champ.
MAAC: March 4, Iona at Rider. Rick Pitino’s Iona is so far ahead of the rest of the MAAC that I kind of wanted to look elsewhere for inspiration. At the same time, this is the closest projected conference game on Iona’s schedule; they’re a three-point favorite by KenPom. I don’t think Iona can go undefeated across a 20-game slate, but getting to their conference tournament with 23 total wins (17 or so in conference) seems likely.
MAC: January 10, Toledo at Kent State. It brings me no pleasure to share that this current run of MAC basketball (2021-pres.) is the least interesting the conference has produced in over a decade. Still, I think Toledo is fascinating. They’ve finished first in the conference four times; they’ve failed to make the NCAA Tournament every time out. Is this finally the year?
MEAC: March 2, Norfolk State at Howard. This is the only game on Norfolk State’s MEAC slate that actually looks like a coin flip. Robert Jones is one of the most underrated coaches in America, building sustainable success at a place that’s really hard to do so. Howard’s on the up-and-up as well. Again: final weekend of the regular season, full of bangers.
Missouri Valley: February 26, Drake at Bradley. The MVC lost Loyola Chicago, but they get Murray State and Belmont, so life could be worse. Unfortunately for all three of those teams, none of them matter in the best game the MVC has this year. Drake has the best roster; Bradley, either second or third-best, draws them on the final day of the MVC’s regular season. You might get a rematch of this the next Sunday at Arch Madness.
Mountain West: January 7, San Diego State at Wyoming. I love these two coaches and their programs; this is or was third place in the running for the WWGOTY. This is a Saturday game that gets a CBS slot, which is ultra-rare for the Mountain West and is wonderful exposure for two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year. I would offer that you could see them again in March…but given the MWC’s record in March, January is the right time to see this game.
Northeast: December 31, Merrimack at Wagner. Same as the Horizon League, I’m required to pick a game here. The only thing in this conference with a pulse is Merrimack’s weird 1-3-1ish zone defense that’s instantly become the best thing in the NEC since they moved up to D-1 three years ago. The NEC is - and I’m not being a jerk here, just stating facts - the least consequential conference in college basketball, offering an 0-27 record in the Big Dance since they became the Northeast Conference in 1988.
Ohio Valley: December 31, Morehead State at Tennessee-Martin. This conference has sadly been neutered by several departures, but Morehead State’s Preston Spradlin is an up-and-coming figure you’re likely to hear about in coaching search season. Ryan Ridder at Tennessee-Martin started last year with 0% of scoring returning - literally an entirely new roster - and made the team more respectable overnight.
Pacific 12: March 4, Arizona at UCLA. This one is deeply obvious as to why you’d watch, but here are three reasons. 1. These offenses are projected 6th and 7th in America by KenPom. 2. They play complete opposite styles of basketball and both made last year’s Sweet Sixteen. 3. They’re the two best teams in a Pac-12 that might only get four teams in the field. 4. Bonus! Both teams have a projected conference record of 15-5, so this could decide the regular season champ.
Patriot League: January 23, Colgate at Boston University. Aside from Gonzaga, I think Colgate has the best chance to go undefeated in their conference. KenPom has them 115th; no other conference member ranks higher than 212th. This game with Boston figures to be their toughest test. Also, at some point, a Big Six school will hire Matt Langel. Presumably. (Pittsburgh should have done this already.)
SEC: January 14, Kentucky at Tennessee. KenPom’s #1 vs. #4 on national TV. A Tennessee legend (Chris Lofton) getting his jersey retired. A Tennessee team that’s won more games against Kentucky (10) since 2015-16 than any other team by far (next closest: Auburn, 6). Two teams that, between them, might have six of the SEC’s fifteen best players. Clear your schedule.
Southern: February 25, Furman at Samford. This is the most exciting mid-major conference in America. EIGHT of its 10 teams shot 35% or better from deep in conference play. 47% of all shot attempts are threes. The best defense (Chattanooga) in 2021-22 was the best because they were the only group to hold opponents below 1 PPP on the season. It all sets up to this clash, which will be one of the most fun games of the year. Furman has been hammering on the NCAA Tournament’s doorstep for seven years now but hasn’t broken in; this really has to be the year. Meanwhile, Samford plays a reckless and deeply entertaining style of offense while mostly not caring about the defensive half of games. KenPom’s projected final score is 79-74, one of the highest combined totals of any mid-major game on the books.
Southland: January 26, Nicholls State at TAMU-CC. Corpus Christi is the CC, but frankly, it gets old typing it out. KenPom has even shortened it to Corpus Chris in his database. Both teams play very fast and very sloppy while forcing approximately 22 turnovers each per game. If you’re into the whole coaching silly season thing, this may be the last year for 32-year-old Austin Claunch at Nicholls State after going 40-10 in conference play the last three years.
SWAC: January 2, Southern at Texas Southern. Look: I know the SWAC serves mostly as First Four fodder these days. Plus, this isn’t one of the conference’s many rivalries. Still: one of these two teams is most likely to be on your TV on a Wednesday night in March. Also, both defenses are tough as nails.
Summit League: February 25, Oral Roberts at South Dakota State. The upshot of this Substack, but the downside (downshot?) for my marriage, is that I have looked into flying to South Dakota for this game. This is the runner-up in the WWGOTY race. You remember Oral Roberts from their Sweet Sixteen run in 2021, and you definitely remember scoring king Max Abmas. But don’t forget about South Dakota State, who made last year’s NCAA Tournament as a 13 seed and has gone a hilarious 40-6 in Summit League play under Eric Henderson. (NOTE: Henderson has offered thoughts and consulting on several posts I’ve made in the past, so I’m publicly admitting bias here.) Along with the SoCon, the Summit League is the best conference to put a random game on from; you’re guaranteed to see a ton of made shots.
Sun Belt: February 18, Louisiana Lafayette at James Madison. It would be nice if the Sun Belt’s basketball programs can catch up to how interesting the football programs have become, but it’s generally a guarantee that they produce a couple of interesting teams each year. These are my best bets on the two. Noah Friedel (James Madison) and Jordan Brown (UL-Lafayette) are two deeply exciting players, one of which will hopefully be represented on a 14 seed come March.
West Coast: February 4, Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s (CA). This was spoiled earlier, but Gonzaga is the only team on paper with a genuinely really good shot at going undefeated in conference play. KenPom has it at 20%; the next-highest for any other team in America is around 5%. This is the only WCC game - THE ONLY ONE - Gonzaga plays where they’re not at least 70% to win. They’re at 69%. Not so nice for everyone else.
WAC: February 9, New Mexico State at Grand Canyon. De-facto regular season championship game. Grand Canyon’s home games are really fascinating because they generally have great crowds, and if you’re able to look past the whole For-Profit University aspect of it there’s some real upside to having them around. If you’re able to look past it.
Ten teams I’m high on…
Here’s a short list of teams that I feel rosier on than the consensus/national commentators. This also serves as a Will’s Favorite Sons list. I’ve tried to pull some deeper ones from the 100s or further back in KenPom.
Tennessee. Well, you’re here, so you’re not surprised by this. Even if I was a truly objective analyst, though, Tennessee’s mix of seniority and youth, a terrific defensive system, and a much more versatile roster than before makes me think more highly of them than 11th in the AP. I have them 7th, personally, and could easily be swayed to view them as a top-five team.
Iowa. I mean, I just think these guys should be an automatic Top 25 team every year. I know they can’t play defense but I don’t really care? Fran’s teams are 37-23 in the Big Ten over the last three years, which sounds mediocre but is the third-best record in the Big Ten over that timespan. (Better than Michigan AND Purdue!) I’m already looking forward to convincing myself that, no, this is the year they don’t blow it in the first weekend as a 5 seed.
Virginia Tech. I’m not sure how a team - the ACC champion! - that returns the #2 and #3 scorers, plus actual good transfers, gets all of one 25th-place vote in the AP Poll. But, well, here we are. If they can get any good close-game luck at all, I look forward to them being a 5-7 seed.
St. John’s. I just think these guys are a lot better than they’re getting credit for. Posh Alexander and David Jones are Dudes; this is the most talent Mike Anderson has had yet at SJU; they return more minutes than anyone other than Xavier or Creighton in the Big East. This is a borderline top-35 team to me.
Loyola Chicago. The losses they’ve sustained from past rosters is pretty big, and I don’t love betting on a mid-major returning 36% of scoring. But: I really do believe that Drew Valentine is a future coaching star, and I think they make the NCAA Tournament again.
Utah State. Everyone is down on these guys because Ryan Odom went 3-8 in close games last year, but they return a lot of scoring and have Taylor Funk coming in from Saint Joseph’s. We’re in the zone of where I’m not sure that they make the NCAA Tournament but they’re surely a bubble team. It’s insane to me that the MWC media has them 8th in an 11-team conference; they’re 3rd for me.
Wyoming. Jeff Linder should be the next coach at Washington if he wants it. He’s a brilliant, brilliant guy. I loved watching Wyoming more than nearly any other team last year.
North Texas. You could also include UAB in here because I love their roster, but Grant McCasland has done a better coaching job considering the talent he’s able to get than almost any other coach in America over the last few years. It blows my mind he’s still at North Texas. He, and his roster, are the primary reason I think the C-USA really may get two bids.
South Dakota State. It was between Colgate and the Jackrabbits for this final spot; considering everyone agrees that Colgate is easily going to win their conference while SDSU is at best a co-favorite, this is my opportunity to stand out more. I adore the style of offensive play Eric Henderson has, and while no one in the Summit League even tries to play defense, his teams at least do a great job of protecting the boards and not fouling. Also, they’ve shot 43% from deep the last two seasons, not sure what more a person could want.
George Mason. Every year for six years running, a team outside the KenPom top 100 has ascended to an at-large tournament bid. This is my best bet. They return a serious contender for A-10 Player of the Year in Josh Oduro; four members of their starting five would rate as above-average or better high-major starters; everyone in their projected rotation is a junior or senior. It’s a terrific mix of old and new talent that I’m very high on.
…and five teams I’m low on
North Carolina. Let me explain! Promise! North Carolina is #1 in the AP Poll; I would have them 5th or thereabouts. I think that what they bring back from last year is objectively excellent, and there’s some nice transfers like Pete Nance in there that make this a fascinating thing to watch unfold. That being said, this feels like 2021-22 UCLA Pt. 2: a team that was fine-not-great for three months rides a one-month hot streak to media love the next season. If UNC ends up just being, like, the 7th best team in America, it shouldn’t be that stunning.
Arkansas. This was more en vogue before the AP put them 10th overall after an offseason where everyone had them top eight. I do not believe this is one of the 15 best teams in America, or at least it won’t perform like it. The returning players/transfers shot 27% from three last season. Only one of the freshmen coming in is an obvious plus shooter. They just lost an exhibition to Texas - who’s great, but still - by 30 points. Exhibitions do not mean much of anything, but I really do not believe in these guys as one of the ten best teams.
Oregon. Another year of this, I guess. Oregon is 21st in the AP Poll; I am not sure they’d be in my top 35. They’ll be very good offensively, but their defense has been awful for three seasons running and their program reputation has been saved by a couple of well-timed tournament runs.
Miami FL. On paper, this should be their most exciting team in a while, but I’m struggling to actually believe in them. Since 2017-18, Miami’s finished 75th, 104th, 138th, and 41st in KenPom. A magical March redeemed that last one, but it’s a very old coach overseeing a roster largely driven by NIL. I don’t think they’re a borderline top 25 team; feels more like a borderline top 40 group.
Florida State. In defense of AP voters, they didn’t know Florida State’s most exciting freshman would be suspended for 16 games for something ridiculous or a key player would suffer an injury after voting. With that being said, it’s an already thin roster that will now require significant amounts of Leonard Hamilton magic to squeeze out a March bid.
The best games of the first week
This is the worst first week of college basketball in recent memory, as detailed by Heat Check CBB. Of course, college athletics have generally ignored Election Day as a concept or something to encourage until all of two years ago, so there’s a good and positive reason this year’s slate is underwhelming at best. Still, there are a few games worth turning your eyeballs to, because basketball is back and if you’re like me you’ll deal with some slop to get to the meat. There are seven games picked here, but not all days are represented because a couple of these days have nothing at all of note.
Lines listed are via KenPom, rankings are via the AP Poll.
Monday, November 7: Memphis (-1) at Vanderbilt, 8 PM ET, SEC Network Plus/ESPN+. The best game of the first four days of the season being on a streaming-only platform probably says something about how annoying the next 30 years of sports consumption will be. ANYWAY, of all the Week One stuff, this feels like it has an outsized impact on both teams’ seasons. Penny Hardaway and Memphis are attempting to build on their first NCAAT bid and follow this game up with a road trip to Saint Louis where they’ll be underdogs; they really do not need to be staring down a potential 0-2 start. Vanderbilt enters year 4 of Jerry Stackhouse with a 13-39 SEC record, projected 12th in the SEC. Even if they just gave Stackhouse a confusing extension, they haven’t beaten a top 50 opponent in non-conference play since January 2018, losing five in a row and 10 of 11.
Monday, November 7: George Mason at #15 Auburn (-15), 8 PM ET, SEC Network Plus/ESPN+. There are higher-rated games via KenPom’s FanMatch or Torvik’s Thrill Quotient rating, but this one is by far the most interesting of ranked team versus buy-game opponents of the opening night. Mason has a roster I like more than any other team ranked 100th or worse by KenPom; they may start five seniors and four of those are capable of scoring 12+ a game. Auburn loses Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, and while I think they’ll be a strong SEC foe as usual, their returners shot a combined 30.2% from deep last year, which would’ve ranked 322nd of 358 D-1 teams. I don’t think Mason actually wins this game, but a scenario where Auburn - whose two best returners are extraordinarily streaky shooters - struggles for 30-35 minutes before winning by nine feels realistic.
Thursday, November 10: Vermont at Saint Mary’s (CA) (-9), 10 PM ET, WCC Network (whatever this is?). It took some amount of strength to not list every game Saint Mary’s plays in opening week because it’s a remarkable run of games against excellent mid-major sides: South Dakota State on Monday, North Texas on Sunday (more on that in a second), and this. Vermont figures to be the America East favorite for the billionth year in a row and plays a lovely style of offense; SMC has done the same thing for 20 years under Randy Bennett. I love games like this.
Friday, November 11: Michigan State vs. #2 Gonzaga (-7), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. Because no one ever learns their lesson in this country, we are playing what should be a very good basketball game on an aircraft carrier where wind and potentially water will be a factor. Do you like made three-pointers? The other two aircraft carrier games provided a hit rate of 8-for-54 (15%) on those, so, tough. Anyway, this is still worth recommending because it will look unique and it’s the first worthwhile chance to see a Gonzaga team once again going for gold. Also, Michigan State, who decided to just not use three scholarships, is here.
Friday, November 11: #16 Villanova (-6) at Temple, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. This is the first road game for new head coach Kyle Neptune, who I have to keep reminding myself is not Jay Wright. Temple is frisky, likely not NCAA Tournament quality but frisky; any sort of road win in your first semi-test is a good thing.
Friday, November 11: BYU at #19 San Diego State (-7), 10:30 PM ET, TBA. How a game can still have undetermined TV stuff at the time of writing, all of eight days before the season starts, is beyond me. But, well, guess it’s not worth trying to predict that stuff anymore. Anyway, BYU is the third-best WCC team and will likely reside on the bubble all season long. They’re a good test for a San Diego State team that has sights set on the Final Four.
Sunday, November 13: North Texas at Saint Mary’s (CA) (-5), 8 PM ET, WCC Network. Again: God bless Saint Mary’s for deciding to schedule like this. They nearly represented three of the seven most interesting games this week. North Texas, as mentioned many times in here, is a team I adore and cannot wait to watch. Randy Bennett, meanwhile, is one of the best offensive coaches in college hoops and has completely overhauled his defense to make it difficult to break. I’m very interested in this one; it’ll be better than the Sunday Night Football game.
The Will Warren Top 25
And, to fulfill a journalistic obligation, here’s my top 25 teams entering 2022-23.
Gonzaga
Baylor
Kentucky
Houston
North Carolina
Duke
Tennessee
Kansas
Texas
Arizona
Virginia
UCLA
Auburn
Villanova
Indiana
San Diego State
Arkansas
Illinois
Creighton
Iowa
Purdue
TCU
Alabama
Michigan
Dayton
Your national champion will be one of Gonzaga or Kentucky. The last seven national champions all began the season 5th or better in KenPom. Eight of the last ten began the season 6th or higher in the AP Poll. Only those two teams match that in 2022-23, which is frankly pretty wild, but either seem like reasonable enough bets. If you’d like to expand your horizons a tad, nine of the last ten national champions began the season in both the KenPom top 10 and the AP top 11; that would make your available national champions list Gonzaga, North Carolina, Houston, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas, and Tennessee. Up to you on which list you prefer, I guess, but it would be a mild tendency breaker for the champion to not be on the two-team list and a serious surprise if it’s not one of those seven.