A Selection Sunday rooting guide for Tennessee fans

a treatise against defeatism (I guess?)

I’ve done these for a few years now on Twitter in years where Tennessee’s got a good enough team to be in the NCAA Tournament, but now that I have a site where all of this can be hosted, it makes sense to move it here. (It will also be tweeted out as a summary.) Basically, the morning of Selection Sunday, I produce a guide of what I think are the best/worst possible draws for Tennessee at each seed line.

This year I’ve added a few alterations. If we’re able to focus more on matchups rather than just which team ranks better/worse in KenPom (still a factor), I think it can produce a more realistic do/don’t for Tennessee faithful. Plus, as unpredictable as they appear on paper, I feel like we know a good bit about Tennessee at this point. They’re 3-6 against top 25 offenses and 20-4 against all others. They’ve yet to lose a game to a Quadrant 3 or 4 opponent, which would include some potential 13/14 seed opponents. They’re 0-4 against top 100 defensive rebounding teams and 23-6 against all others. So on and so forth.

As usual, I’ve included two scenarios here: what matchups work best for Tennessee as a 3 seed, and which ones are best if they’re a 4 seed. It looks very slightly more likely that Tennessee is a 4 rather than a 3, but neither would be a surprise. I haven’t seen anyone with serious bracket credentials put them as a 5, but the NCAA Selection Committee is capable of some crazy things. Still, not gonna cover it; it would more or less be the same as the 4-seed section anyway.

For any questions/comments/concerns I’ve turned the comments on for everyone, not just subscribers.

If Tennessee is a 3 seed…

FIRST ROUND

The good news is that most of the 13/14 seed possibilities are decided, with only the Ivy League really having much of an effect here. The teams Tennessee’s generally fared best against have A) Not put a ton of pressure on them from two-point land; B) Not been able to hang with them on the boards. If you need a C) option it would be not being able to get to the free throw line endlessly.

The best draw here for Tennessee would be Grand Canyon, who possesses one of the worst turnover margins in the nation and a terrible defense. Using Torvik’s numbers, Tennessee rates as the 6th-best team in America against Quadrant 3 or better competition; Grand Canyon was 127th.

The worst draw is likely Furman, both because they’ll be the highest-rated 14 (unless they’re a 13) and because they’re #1 in 2PT% to go with being a solid rebounding team. It’s potentially kryptonite to Tennessee’s style.

ROUND OF 32

Based on the current Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s only eligible to draw two potential 6 seeds: Saint Mary’s (CA) or Duke. Neither is a good draw, particularly with the likelihood of Tennessee being in Greensboro. That being said, Duke is the less-bad draw on paper. Their ACC Tournament win notwithstanding, it’s still a team that doesn’t force turnovers, doesn’t shoot well, and doesn’t get to the line often. Still, not a good draw.

The ultimate best case here is that TCU falls to the 6 line, or Miami. Both would be overseeded teams even there, and in TCU’s case they’re a terrible shooting team that’s porous on the defensive boards. Miami, meanwhile, opts not to play defense.

If Tennessee were to draw an 11 seed, there’s a decent chance it would be a First Four team, but that seems very up in the air. Either way, I think either Pittsburgh or Arizona State are teams Tennessee would be pretty relieved to see. Both would be two of the lowest-rated 11 seeds in years, and Arizona State actually gets outrebounded in the average game. Worst case: NC State or Providence, both who possess unusually good Shot Volume stats for 11 seeds.

BEYOND

The 1 seed Tennessee and the entire field is going to want is Purdue, which is fine. Purdue obviously looks a little lost these days, and their negative turnover margin spells trouble for a deep run. But I’d also like to sell you on wanting Kansas, a dead-average rebounding team that would be taking on a top-4 offensive rebounding side in Tennessee if they played again. Kansas is also on pace to have the lowest-ranked KenPom offense (#27) that a 1 seed has had since 2014 Virginia. No 1 seed has made the Final Four with an offense ranked outside of the top 25 nationally.

Tennessee should want a quality 8 or 9 seed to hopefully take out their 1; the best options there are Florida Atlantic or Maryland. Of course, none of this would matter to Tennessee unless they made the Elite Eight for the second time in program history, which would be a cool thing.

The bottom half of the bracket is more interesting. Tennessee obviously wants a bad (well, “bad”) 2 seed. I have one team and one team only here: Baylor. It’s a perfect matchup for Tennessee: a team that doesn’t convert twos well, gets hammered on the defensive boards, and has the worst defense for a top-2 seed by ranking (#102) in the 21-year KenPom era. The 3 and 4 seeds with sub-100 defenses won an average of 1.4 games, and four of the nine dipped out before the Sweet Sixteen. Only one managed an Elite Eight bid. I’m willing to stick my neck out and be wrong here, but you really, really want this Baylor team on paper.

If Tennessee is a 4 seed…

FIRST ROUND

Well, not ideal. This is the strongest batch of 13 seeds (projected, of course) since 2011, though Tennessee is also pretty likely to be the strongest 4-seed on paper. Either way, Tennessee’s best 13-seed draw is Yale, a very good team that actually would be the strongest KenPom-ranked 13 seed. The problem for Yale in a tournament setting is two-fold: they don’t force many turnovers, don’t do well on the offensive boards, and create relatively few points from deep. Against Quad 1 and 2 opponents, Yale went 2-4, with the only two wins coming over Hawaii and Princeton. The one Tournament lock they played, Kentucky, demolished them inside and forced a lot of Yale turnovers.

The worst draw is easily Kent State, a team that profiles extremely well for March success. Kent’s metrics are Shot Volume catnip: a +6.6 Turnover Margin per 100 possessions, above-average rebounding numbers, and a top 40 defense. They make me think of Abilene Christian from 2021. I also think Tennessee wouldn’t love a draw of Louisiana-Lafayette, who offers great rebounding numbers and quality shooting, but ULL went 1-5 against Quad 1/2 this year and was uncompetitive in their toughest non-conference tests. Iona has not played a top-50 team this season, but color me disinterested in tangling with Rick Pitino in March. I guess I’d rank the preference here as Yale > ULL > Iona > Kent.

ROUND OF 32

Weirdly, all of the projected options at the 5-seed line are preferable to Tennessee’s at the 6. None of them would keep me up at night that much. The best case is likely Iowa State simply because Caleb Grill was kicked off the team and they were already a bad offense. They force a ton of turnovers, but unlike Missouri, they have a massive negative foul disparity and don’t take advantage of it offensively. Plus, Tennessee has been bizarrely good against top 25 defenses this year.

The only bad draw here on paper might be San Diego State, who feels like West Coast Tennessee. SDSU is great on the boards, tough as nails on defense, and has multiple guys who can hit tough shots. Their offense can be an awful watch, but they went 6-5 against Quadrant 1 teams this year.

Of the 12 seeds, Tennessee’s least-bad draw surprisingly may be College of Charleston. All of the 12 seeds are about equally solid this year, but Charleston’s offense isn’t anything special. They’re great on the offensive boards, but it’s worth remembering they’ve had the benefit of running up their stats against a schedule where 31 of the 34 opponents were Quadrants 3 or 4. Against top 100 teams, they’ve had serious defensive issues and turnover problems.

Beyond that, the only 12 seed that really makes me think twice is Drake. This is a top-50 Torvik team that never turns the ball over, never gives up offensive rebounds, and went 4-4 against Quadrants 1 and 2. More worrisome is that they actually got better at avoiding turnovers against top teams. Best of luck to the 5 seed that gets them.

BEYOND

Same logic applies as earlier: Tennessee wants Kansas or Purdue as their 1 seed. Essentially, they just don’t want Houston, who is more or less Better Tennessee. I don’t think that would go well. Same logic applies elsewhere, too.