Accept the Mystery
it's okay to not know, even if you *really* want to know
Hello. Here’s a thing I used to do for Tennessee basketball games, little columns and such, that I’ve largely disposed of. If you’re not a Tennessee fan feel free to ignore; if you are one, uh, here you go. On with the show.
Early in the COVID-sphere I was scuffling about for things to watch; my recollection is that somewhere in late March 2020 I watched A Serious Man (2009) on Netflix. My wife and I had more or less exhausted the list of movies we’d been putting off until the world shut down. I have a fond memory of streaming Onward (2020), which is a Pixar movie that almost no one saw or remembers, after running a fake simulation of an NCAA Tournament that didn’t happen.
I am not well-equipped to say what A Serious Man does or does not ‘mean’; more skilled reviewers than I have gone ahead there. But I do know three things about it. One is that I loved it the first time I saw it, which apparently doesn’t happen for many people, but I don’t know, a movie about a guy helplessly watching the world around him collapse amidst one of the most important years in American history felt right. Two is that it has the funniest angry reaction to a $15 expense I’ve ever seen in a movie:
And three is the obvious: Accept The Mystery. There is a recurring scene throughout where the lead character, a professor, is confronted by both a student and the student’s father to change his grade. He’s left bribes, phone calls, and most memorably, is visited by the dad at his house later in the movie.
That phrase - “accept the mystery” - could mean pretty much anything you want it to mean. The professor is attempting to refute the dad’s bribe; perhaps it means he must accept the mystery of why the bribe is happening. Or he must accept why he’s not allowed to decline it. Maybe it’s about the fake lawsuit. Then again, the line could be about the entire movie, as this man watches his entire world melt down around him, only to slightly build itself back together by movie’s end.
Me personally, I think it’s a hilarious line. What could it mean, other than literally everything? Accept the mystery of “accept the mystery,” or of accepting the mystery of life itself. Do this enough and you’ll spin yourself into the loop that another Coens flick, Inside Llewyn Davis, does.
I have been thinking about A Serious Man a ton lately, not because my own life is collapsing, thankfully. Mostly it’s because it seems to get better and more real by the day. (Top three Coens: A Serious Man, The Big Lebowski, Raising Arizona.) Try as you might, there are few-to-no concrete answers in daily life. Many things are not supposed to make sense. Least of all should be college basketball, or really, college sports.
Tennessee lost at home to South Carolina on Tuesday evening, a game where they were double-digit favorites. For the first time since the Maui Invitational, Tennessee’s offense looked stale and stiff. Even a 31-point effort from the impossible Dalton Knecht, a player who still manages to astonish me with something every time he touches the court, was not enough to bring them over the top. I am in a few group chats related to Tennessee and all of them were wildly negative Tuesday night.
Then, Saturday, Tennessee beat Kentucky by 11 on the road in a game that arguably wasn’t even that close. Save for a late UK run and some amazing shot-making by Rob Dillingham, it could’ve been 15 or 20. Tennessee put up an opponent-adjusted 1.455 PPP, which was easily their best performance of the season and the fifth-best of the Barnes era, per Torvik. Considering the circumstances it was probably the most impressive offensive performance since dicing up Kentucky in the 2019 SEC Tournament.
Neither is the truth here, that Tennessee’s offense is back in the Dark Ages or that Tennessee’s offense is 2017-18 Villanova. What I can tell you is true is the following:
Statistically speaking, this is the second-best offense Tennessee has produced in the 28-year KenPom era.
It’s the 15th-best offense in America right now, per KenPom, and Torvik’s 16th-best from December 1 onward. If you prefer since New Year’s Day, it’s still 16th.
In SEC games, Tennessee has the second-best offense in the conference, ranks second in 2PT%, and third in eFG%. They also never turn the ball over (3rd in TO%) and get a bunch of offensive boards (4th).
This is all despite playing an above-average schedule (6th-hardest in the league), better than any of the other teams projected among the top four in the league.
I also have some historical stats you may be interested in. Here is the full list of 1-3 seeds, 2002-present, that are ranked somewhere around 10th-20th in offensive efficiency and inside the top 5 in defensive efficiency, as Tennessee currently is.
That list offers a wide, wide range of plausible outcomes. On one corner, you have 2014-15 Virginia, who crashed out in the Round of 32 at the hands of Michigan State. On the other, you have a National Freaking Champion in 2012-13 Louisville, who on this day 11 years ago ranked 5th overall in KenPom with the 16th-best offense and the #1 defense. I wonder if that may be relevant to some.
So, okay, those are the extremes. In between were outcomes that ranged from a Sweet Sixteen, which would feel a bit weak, to a total of three teams that at least made the national title game. Alright, so you got that; maybe you wanna narrow it down further. Fine. 1-3 seeds with top-20 offenses and top-10 defenses that scored 76+ PPG:
Again, everything is possible. Everything from the Round of 32 exits 2001-02 Cincinnati, 2007-08 Duke, 2009-10 Kansas, and 2017-18 Michigan State suffered to a total of SIX national champions listed here. Six! The average number of wins there is 3.62, by the way. It’s plausible that Tennessee cannot get any better offensively from here, but it’s also plausible that they may have a little more room to grow. Or maybe they stabilize and are just a top-20 offense, which is still pretty good.
The point is less about the numbers and ranges and all that stuff. More important is a sort of viewpoint we’ve seen over the years, which is a “wait ‘til March” philosophy. On one hand, hey, look at history. I think this is inarguably the best college program to never make any sort of Final Four, not even when they had 12 teams or whatever in the field.
On the other, I think this misses the point of life and/or sports. If you’re constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop, what’s the point? Are you actually enjoying watching the games, or are you pretending to? I’m not being critical of anyone who has reservations about their team, to be clear. I’m being critical of people who can’t enjoy a thing that’s in front of them because you’re constantly worried about the other thing.
What Tennessee ends up doing in March, I have no idea. Based on the data available I feel pretty confident they win at least a game. Anything beyond that, who knows. Should they win three or more? Probably, given their expected seed, which is either a 1 or a 2. Will they? I have no idea. That’s six, seven weeks down the road. I got a lot of basketball to enjoy in the meantime and the best pure scorer I have seen in orange since I’ve been alive. (Sorry, but I wasn’t alive when Allan Houston was on campus.)
I think I am either poisoned or have let my guard down enough from January events, where I got to enjoy Michigan winning the title because my dad and I grew up watching them together, as well as watching the Lions win their first playoff games of my lifetime. Maybe it’s because I think I am the protagonist of history and believe good things can/will happen to the teams I like and/or cover. Maybe it’s because the stakes feel lower somehow thanks to every Tennessee game now being genuinely entertaining stuff to watch.
Or maybe, just maybe, I have accepted the mystery. I know that I cannot predict or control what happens in the NCAA Tournament. Lord knows I’ve tried the former, and Lord knows God has no interest in the latter. That’s in seven weeks. For now, I’m gonna enjoy the show in front of me. Accept the mystery, and the team, whatever may come from it. If the wild dreams are left unfulfilled, it was still worth it. If they are fulfilled, then you were in all along. I know which one I’d prefer.
I used to do these post-Tennessee game essays a lot more often but would rather do real stats-y analysis now. But! I did want to get this one out since I had the inspiration to do one for the first time all season. In that spirit, enjoy your BULLETS!
The SEC race is going to get real interesting. Particularly if Auburn defeats Alabama on Wednesday and South Carolina/Tennessee hold serve as home favorites. Then you’ve got three teams at 8-2 and Tennessee at 7-2 with a game in hand and the lightest schedule of any of them left on the books.
Speaking of schedules! Remaining SOS ranking via Torvik: Alabama #1, Auburn #3, South Carolina #5, Tennessee #11. Look for some late Florida (#14) and Kentucky (#13) surges as well, which should make for interesting media coverage of both.
The losses have all largely made sense to me. Tennessee was probably overdue for a bad shooting night as happened against South Carolina. Mississippi State is a good team and a hard place to play at; Tennessee couldn’t find the shot or two to get over the top. The three non-conference losses are all close ones to national title contenders away from home. Nothing very offensive.
All-SEC as of February 5. I think it’s Knecht as POTY, and I think all of Johni Broome, Mark Sears, and Wade Taylor should be First Team locks. (Reminder: they have eight players on the First Team for reasons unknown.) Beyond that it’s kind of a mess. I would wager Tennessee gets no fewer than two on the First Team, but if the second player is Aidoo/Zeigler/wild card I’m unsure. They could get three but I doubt it. I think Kentucky basically has to have a representative (Reeves) but it seems that their SEO is cratering. Also, what do you do with guys going buckwild on bad teams, like Tamar Bates of Missouri?
Some more post-Maui stats. Tennessee rates 5th overall nationally from November 26 to now, with the 8th-best offense in college hoops. Probably most impressive about any of that is the biggest bugaboo of recent Barnes teams slowly being erased: awful 2PT%. Against a pretty stout slate of opponents, Tennessee sits 40th in 2PT% from the time Zakai Zeigler rediscovered his form. They’re as nasty as ever defensively (4th in opponent 2PT%) and have been pretty dominant on the offensive boards. This is all while not exploding from three and having a meh 34% hit rate from deep. That’s why there may yet be room to roam.
Good stuff man. Hopefully this year is the year but maybe it’s not. But I’ll enjoy it along the way.
Thanks for this one, I really enjoyed it. I'm a big "enjoy the journey" person so this season is a huge win for me no matter what happens in March. Winning then is just icing on the cake.