So! In the event you either live under a rock or are not terribly invested in the comings and goings of a basketball roster in late May/early June, maybe you missed the following news.
Twitter no longer allows embeds of their own tweets on here - perhaps the next mega-rich guy will turn that feature back on? - but you get the gist. Josiah-Jordan James, the longest-tenured Vol still eligible, has elected to return for a fifth season. This would not be possible if not for the whole global pandemic you may or may not recall, which led the NCAA to give players who were on teams during the 2020-21 season an extra year of eligibility if they wanted it.
I got the hyperbole beaten out of me this last basketball season, but even I have to say this is a serious stunner. I talked yesterday afternoon to a variety of people in the know: media members, insiders, people reasonably close to the Tennessee basketball program. None of them were aware that James wanted to return, much less would be accepted back, until Tuesday afternoon. Considering that Tennessee has filled its full allotment of 13 scholarships for a few weeks now, essentially everyone had written a James/Tennessee reunion off. It’s the reason why Olivier Nkamhoua is going elsewhere and why Uros Plavsic is moving on: there weren’t any spots.
Or so we were told, anyway. The plan, which I first saw via KNS’s Mike Wilson, is that James will walk on to this year’s basketball roster. I assume that James will more than make the amount of money necessary to cover a scholarship in NIL funds, but it’s still a stunner. No one surrounding the Tennessee basketball program, whether coach, player, media, or fan, saw this coming at all. It is arguably the single most surprising roster move Tennessee basketball has seen since I can remember.
Therefore, we are here, writing in early June about a college basketball team’s roster situation for a season that begins in November. It is extremely rare for that to happen on this newsletter because I believe in letting the offseason lie for the most part, but this is unique. This is a four-year starter, fringe NBA prospect, and former five-star recruit who’s returning as a walk-on. So, yes, time to discuss.
What this changes
The positives up front: this gives Tennessee even more depth to a relatively deep roster. Prior to James’ return, Tennessee sat at #2 in Bart Torvik’s very early preseason projections. They had eight guys with legitimate rotation experience, whether at UT or at other schools, to go along with shiny new recruits like Freddie Dillione, J.P. Estrella, and Cameron Carr. Obviously, you can’t play 11 guys serious minutes, and Barnes generally whittles the rotation down to eight or so come March.
Adding James to that simply gives Tennessee an additional, well-experienced option to go with their variety of options. As it stands, the only things that are really set are that Jonas Aidoo will be your center, Zakai Zeigler will be your point guard once healthy, and Santiago Vescovi will start at the 2. Basically everything else is a question mark, though not necessarily in a bad way. Newcomers Dalton Knecht and Chris Ledlum both came here because they thought they could play real minutes at a higher level; James at minimum gives them a quality option to battle with.
Along with that, we already know that a healthy James is potentially the very best defender in the SEC. Any lineup with he and Jahmai Mashack on it is dangerous for everyone involved. James still holds the ability to guard 1-4 extremely effectively and an average center merely effectively; he is the definition of a defensive matchup problem when locked in. If you’re getting that version of James, you take it no questions asked.
The problem is that Tennessee did not get that version of James last year. Some of that’s due to injury, obviously, but a guy with sky-high steal rates for three straight years suddenly stopped forcing turnovers and played a lot of ineffective basketball. If the James from 2021-22 - the one who turned into a flamethrower on both ends for the back half of the season - shows up, Tennessee genuinely could win the national title. If he does not, well, I’m not sure who this was for.
Also, go back to that first paragraph in this section. Tennessee already had eight guaranteed playable guys, with the potential to expand to 9 or 10. James’ return creates a significant minutes logjam at multiple positions. Given that James has been his best his entire career as a 4, not a 3, one would imagine that Chris Ledlum, who came to Tennessee to play the 4, has to be no less than mildly disappointed. For the similarly-sized Dalton Knecht, it could eat into his minutes as well, given that James is obviously a far superior defender. This likely squeezes D.J. Jefferson fully out of any rotation plans, too, which is the price you pay in the portal era but wasn’t likely until now.
I’ve also got to question if this actually benefits James himself. Jonathan Givony at ESPN/DraftExpress had James 77th on his big board. There’s only 60 draft picks, obviously, but that means two things: James reasonably could’ve been drafted and if he weren’t, he would’ve been a top UDFA choice. There’s real money to be made in the G-League if not overseas, and several people I’ve talked to genuinely believe James could stick for a few years at the end of various NBA rosters.
If James comes back and has the season he’s always been capable of - that of a first-team All-SEC player - then this may well be worth it. There’s also a reason that it’s extremely rare a fringe NBA prospect with potential next-level earnings returns to school. We’ll see.
What this doesn’t change
Tennessee already had a top-3 roster on the two analytics sites with preseason ratings I’ve seen; this changes very little there. James elevates Tennessee’s floor and could potentially elevate their ceiling, but once again, Tennessee figures to have no worse than one of the 10 best rosters in college basketball. For all the complaints one could have about March, that does count for something.
As of the time of writing, Zach Edey’s return to Purdue shoved Tennessee down to #3 on Torvik’s preseason projections, but that’s fairly small potatoes considering they’re still top three. They’re #2 (!) on Hoop-Explorer once you add James to the mix. The only team they’re behind at this time on both sites is Purdue, which, well, bedfellows and whatnot.
I also think that given Tennessee’s been planning for two months to not have James on the 2023-24 roster, it may not change that much about the expected rotation. You still have three locked-in starters and seven or so locked-in rotation members. James is one of them, but he won’t suddenly account for all of Ledlum’s minutes or all of Knecht’s. I think he’s probably going to have to fight for on-court time, but that’s life under Barnes in the first place. Earned not given, etc.
The other thing this doesn’t change is Tennessee’s offensive ceiling, unless James has some sort of fifth-year explosion from three. At this point he is who he is: a streaky spot-up shooter who will reliably hit 32% but not 37% of his threes in a given season. If he proves that sentence wrong it will help Tennessee out immensely, but it’s unlikely. Admiral Schofield shot 42% after coming back for his senior year, but that followed a pair of 39% and 40% seasons. James’ top season remains a 37% effort on 79 threes his freshman year, which has been followed by 31%/33%/31%.
The last thing is winning back some of Tennessee’s more temperamental fans. Several I’ve talked to are still very annoyed by James’ comments after the Florida Atlantic loss, in which James more or less said losing to a 9 seed wasn’t a bad thing and that fans should be happy with how the season went. As much as I’m pro-positivity, that was an utterly tone-deaf thing to say. Most have probably forgotten about it by now, but a PR class could help a little here.
What this means for Tennessee in 2023-24
Nothing, it’s June. Go read a book and touch grass.
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What this means for Tennessee can be summed up in a few fair bullet points:
From top to bottom, Tennessee genuinely may have the most depth of anyone in the country. Please DO NOT take this to mean “most talented.” What I’m saying is that in terms of playable, positive impact guys, Tennessee might have the most proven options. The main contenders in this field would be Purdue, Creighton, or maybe Michigan State. Duke has more depth on-paper, but you’re heavily reliant on a lot of 18 and 19-year-olds realizing their respective ceilings. Tennessee is old, experienced, and has a high floor as a program, which is a pretty deadly combo for expected success.
The problem with depth: someone will be pissed off. It’s life. Tennessee used all 13 scholarships and James is more or less a 14th being sustained by NIL money. Of those 14, eight are juniors/seniors and a ninth (Tobe Awaka) was a fringe rotation member a year ago. That doesn’t include Freddie Dillione, who is expected to play significant minutes as a freshman and potentially start, or consensus top 50 recruits Cameron Carr and J.P. Estrella. You cannot play 12 guys in March; you very rarely see anyone play 10. Someone is going to leave this season playing a lot fewer minutes than they’d hoped for. That would’ve happened anyway, but it’s a mega-lock now.
Tennessee’s floor will be sky-high. Aside from the post-Grant/Admiral year, this is a team that’s played top-20 basketball for five of the last six seasons and top-10 for half of them. You know what you’re getting every year, which is a team that will spend a lot of time in the polls and is very likely to be no worse than a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The program has seen many darker days, I promise.
Tennessee’s ceiling is… Well, I think you just don’t know. I do think the James return is probably a net positive for Tennessee, but it doesn’t make Tennessee that much better in terms of pure talent. The most purely talented team in basketball next year will be Duke. Aside from 2020-21 Baylor, no team in Torvik’s 15-year database has won a title with a talent rating as low as Tennessee’s. However, I think everyone would simply settle for one (1) Final Four bid before they die.
Now, back to the offseason. I Think You Should Leave came out this week. Anyone seen it yet?