An explanation of why Houston's Ja'Vier Francis is my favorite defensive player in the NCAA
You can either love a guy who blocks a billion shots and is a rebounding monster, or you could not
In the same way that the sun rises daily, Houston’s defense is once again elite. Nothing new here. The Cougars have posted a tremendous run over the last six seasons, posting a low finish of 21st and three consecutive top-10 finishes. For seven straight seasons, they’ve finished 6th or better in eFG% allowed and are coming off three consecutive finishes of #2. Every single season, you know what you’re going to get with these guys: elite defense, unbelievable rebounding abilities, and a lot of wins.
At the same time, I think this year’s unit is…different. It’s not just because they’re currently #1 with a bullet in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Or that they’re forcing more turnovers than ever before. I do think both of those things are pretty important, and I realize the fallacy of suggesting any one defender on this roster is better than another. All of Jamal Shead, Terrence Arceneaux, J’Wan Roberts, and Emanuel Sharp deserve their proverbial flowers in making this defense what it is.
But: I am going to do the unthinkable. The silly. I’m going to pin more of this than most on one specific guy, a guy who barely cracks 18 minutes a game. What he does with those 18 minutes a game are insane. If you are unfamiliar, it is time to familarize yourself with the work of Ja’Vier Francis, my favorite defender in college basketball this season.
The Cougars are averaging an absurd 0.744 schedule-adjusted PPP allowed when Francis is on the court. That figure barely budges whatsoever when adjusted for opponent shooting luck. No player in America is within two points of Francis; the only players even within 3.5 points are all on Francis’s team (Shead, Joseph Tugler, and Roberts). On/off stats are fraught with sample size concerns even at the end of a full season, but Francis’s in-game impact is undeniable.
So: in the spirit of the season, this is a loosely-structured post celebrating perhaps the single most enjoyable defensive player in the college game this year.
This offseason, when putting together the Houston section of the Big 12 preview at this site, it hit me all at once that Francis was simply That Guy. Rarely is it that someone who didn’t even crack 10 MPG in a season stands out, but on a per-minute basis I felt what I was seeing was insane. From October:
The swing piece here is a per-minute superstar. Ja’Vier Francis is, reportedly, 6’8". I’ll believe that when I see it. He also, reportedly, has a 7’5” wingspan. I do believe that. Francis got buried on the depth chart last year behind Walker and Roberts at center, but when he played, he was a marvel. In 10.3 MPG, Francis posted some truly insane numbers, all with a minimum of 8 MPG nationally:
A 138.1 Offensive Rating, which was the third-highest by any player in America.
A Block% of 14.7%, which was also the third-highest in America. One of the guys ahead of him is 7’5” Jamarion Sharp, if that adds any context. The four guys below him were all 7’1” or taller. Again: 6’8”.
A Stock% (steals + blocks) of 16.8%, second-highest in America behind Sharp.
A +10.2 overall Box Plus-Minus, 11th-best in America. The guy in front of him was Adama Sanogo, for reference.
A +5.8 Defensive BPM, again third-best. The only two players ahead were Jaylen Clark (UCLA) and Dereck Lively II (Duke).
One of 23 players nationally to have a >15% OREB% and >20% DREB%.
I mean. There are other nerd stats, too: a 31.3 PER (top 100 among all players since 2009), the fifth-highest Win Shares/40 since 2009 (behind Keegan Murray, ahead of Cody Zeller), etc. If Francis can learn to contain his fouls at all (his career fouls/40 is 5.6), he is going to be the breakout candidate of the year in this conference.
Two months later and while the offensive breakout hasn’t commenced, the list of Francis fancy stats remains bonkers. Among high-major players, Francis ranks 8th in Block%, 9th in Stock%, and 13th in DBPM.
The actual on-court impact can probably better be described with our usual combo of stats and video here. These are Francis’ full on/off numbers for the year (not adjusted for shooting luck), per Hoop-Explorer.
A couple things stand out there beyond the headline figure of 0.744 PPP allowed, which is obviously pretty nuts. With Francis on the court, Houston’s opponents are getting just 22% of their shots at the rim. Houston as a whole sits at just 24.8%, which is the fourth-lowest rate in America, and Francis doesn’t even play half of their minutes. However, him merely being on the court forces opponents to think twice about touching the paint.
The one where Francis eliminates two plays at once
Utah is the best team Houston’s played from a 2PT% perspective this year. The Utes have poured it in at a 55% rate against opponents and sit #61 in 2PT% nationally. I like their offense a lot and think it’s pretty good. It also went for a 41% hit rate on twos against Houston, pretty easily their worst 2PT% of the season to date. This was despite scoring 66 points, tied for the most anyone’s gotten on these Cougars, and despite Francis, Roberts, and several others spending much of the game in foul trouble.
Houston was equally good on defense with or without Francis in this game, but it says something that of the 17 field goal attempts Utah got up with him on the court, exactly one - ONE - was within five feet of the rim.
The natural draw for Francis in this game, as Houston’s center, was Utah’s main big Lawson Lovering, a 7’1” fellow who moves fairly well and is an excellent passer for a big. Basketball doesn’t script out possessions the same way football does, but the first few possessions are generally a good tell for what a team has practiced and/or emphasized heading into a game.
On Utah’s second possession, the Utes ran a basic P&R meant to free up point guard Rollie Worster for a drive to the rim. Worster is not much of a shooter, sitting at 29% from three in a four-year career, but the presence of screener Branden Carlson, who can shoot, causes J’Wan Roberts to misread the action. Roberts goes the wrong way here, and at this specific time, Worster is playing a 2-on-1 game.
Right here is the crux of our play: what Francis does to take a should-be layup and a should-be dropoff to Lovering away.
Francis is 6’8” with a 7’5” wingspan. That type of natural athleticism does a couple things for him here: it takes away a potential lob to Lovering. Lovering is not a great leaper, but a 7’1” guy can at least lay this in. Francis plays back far enough to deny the lob. What he’s also doing here is forcing Worster into the layup itself, as Francis’s positioning denies a potential drop-off pass for two to Lovering.
Now that Francis has forced Worster into his last remaining decision other than a kickout three, he goes straight up, does not overplay his hand, and forces Worster to finish over a much taller (by arm length) defender. Unsurprisingly, this results in a miss.
This is just one play from a 10-point Houston win, but it underscored the difficulty of the day at the office for the Utes. A team that relies heavily on their height advantage and playing an inside-out game was forced to take more jumpers than they have in any other game this season.
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