Conference tournament previews, part 2

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Hello! This is a continuation of last week’s post about conference tournaments. As a reminder, here is the schedule:

And here are the ads for a $12/year subscription.

But, lucky you, this one is FREE!

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What we’ll do here is go conference-by-conference, analyze the odds for each one, and point out the following things:

• Favorites (30% or higher to win)

• Darkhorses (10% or higher)

• Best team overall, in non-conference, and in conference play

• Average seed of winner

• Number of times the non-best team won the conference tournament

• Best pick for March Madness

• Winner prediction

• And a watchability rating out of 10!

Got it? Mostly? Also, we’re going in order from earliest championship game to latest.

America East

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 11 AM ET

• Favorite: Vermont (66.1% odds of winning)

• Darkhorses: UMass Lowell (31.6%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Vermont

  • Non-conference: UMass Lowell

  • Conference: Vermont

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.2

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 6

I was a little surprised to see how chaotic the America East Tournament can be simply because it always feels like Vermont wins it, but I’ve got a goldfish memory, so. This is one of those where I’m writing about it as it’s already started (oops) and it’s a two-team race. Any outcome that isn’t a Vermont/UMass Lowell title game would be a mondo upset.

Best pick for March Madness: Vermont projects as a 14 seed and UMass Lowell a 15, so neither is super likely to win a game. Given Vermont’s complete lack of ability to grab an offensive rebound (#358 in America!) and middling turnover rates and UMass Lowell’s bang-average turnover margin, I’m not sure I love either to keep a game close. My rooting interest, full disclosure, is for Vermont because John Becker is one of the nicest people I have interviewed. (I’m sure Pat Duquette is too, for the record.)

The winner is…: The chaos factor is of interest but it’s hard to not ride with the team that’s won 13 in a row in Vermont.

Watchability: 7/10. Objectively it would be a 6/10, but a bonus for 1) being the only title game on at 11 AM that day and 2) being between two pretty enjoyable offenses.

MEAC

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 1 PM ET

• Favorite: North Carolina Central (40.1% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Norfolk State (22%), Howard (21.4%), UMES (9.5%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: NC Central

  • Non-conference: NC Central

  • Conference: NC Central

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.8

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 5

This is generally a strange tournament, particularly marked by the fact that the 6-seed has won this tournament three times in the last decade while all other non-1 seeds have won it twice. It’s a three-headed race at the top between actual champs Howard, analytics champs NC Central, and back-to-back champs Norfolk State, who’ve been the best team in this conference for four years running until 2023.

Best team for March Madness: All potential champions are most likely to be 16 seeds, but NC Central and Norfolk have better odds to be 15 seeds, so you probably want one of them. North Carolina Central actually compares fairly well with some 15/16 seeds that have given 1/2 seeds trouble in the past, though none of their comps actually won a game. Still, 25-30 minutes of entertainment is better than zero.

The winner is…: To me what this conference likely comes down to is who wins that NC Central/Norfolk semi, as it happens in 72% of scenarios. They split the regular season battle and both were super tight games. I’ll go with Norfolk State, as this has proven a wise choice in past years.

Watchability rating: 5/10. I love this league and its coaches, but its teams do not produce aesthetically-pleasing basketball. Be prepared for a lot of fouls and a lot of turnovers forced.

SWAC

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPNU, 5:30 PM ET

• Favorite: Grambling State (42.5% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Alcorn State (18.8%), Prairie View A&M (11.5%), Southern (10%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Grambling State

  • Non-conference: Grambling State

  • Conference: Grambling State

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 1.9

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 4

Since 2012, a top-2 seed has won this conference tournament 8 out of 10 times, so despite the odds it kinda feels like a two-team race between Grambling State and Alcorn State. Both went 15-3 in league play, both were fairly clearly the two best teams in the league. That being said, this was a deceptively open league past those two, where 9-9 Prairie View played better basketball than 3-seed Jackson State and 10-8 Alabama A&M played like the seventh-best team.

Best pick for March Madness: Thanks to the SWAC’s surprising non-conference success, Grambling State actually has a serious shot at a 15 seed, which would make them the first SWAC team since 2015 (and the second since 1996) to not be a 16 seed. What separates Grambling from Alcorn (and others) is the fact they’ve got a top-80 defense right now, which is unusually high for a team from this level of play. They’re #7 in 2PT%, #8 in eFG%, #45 in defensive TO%. I don’t know that it’s a winning recipe but it’s a very interesting one. This is a lot of words for a team the NCAA will inevitably shove into a 16 seed and match up with Alabama.

The winner is…: Grambling State. But something tells me that somehow Texas Southern wins this.

Watchability rating: 3/10. The best team in the league has a really brutal offense, and the league itself is dead last in eFG% and next-to-last in TO%.

Big 12

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN, 6 PM ET

• Favorite: “lol”

• Darkhorses: Texas (22.3% odds of winning), Kansas (16.8%), Baylor (16.1%), Kansas State (11.9%), Iowa State (10.9%), TCU (9%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Texas

  • Non-conference: Kansas

  • Conference: Texas

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.5

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 6

Well, here we go. The Best Conference in America™ promises to have the most wide-open conference tournament in America. An astounding six teams have a 9% shot or better to win this, with no team being above Texas at 22%. If you know without a doubt who’s winning this, you’re either clairvoyant or remarkably lucky.

Best pick for March Madness: People seem convinced that half of the Final Four will be Big 12 teams, and it’s not really my right to tell them they’re wrong. In this case you’re looking for the best championship winner, which is Texas. Kansas is now on track to be the overall 1 seed, which is funny because they’re an analytics 2/3 seed. (In the database I’ve written about, the teams most similar to 2022-23 Kansas had an average seed of 3.9. Oof!) I don’t love any team here because I think they’ve all beaten each other to death, but Texas has a top-20 offense AND defense while posting really good turnover numbers. They’re the conference’s best shot at a Final Four team.

The winner is…: I have no earthly idea plus picking Kansas would be boring. Baylor it is!

Watchability rating: 10/10. I mean.

Mountain West

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on CBS, 6 PM ET

• Favorite: San Diego State (46.6% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Utah State (16.1%), Boise State (13.3%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: San Diego State

  • Non-conference: San Diego State

  • Conference: San Diego State

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 1.9

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 5

The goal here is to get as many teams in the field as possible, or so I assume. Three should be in as of now. San Diego State has been the best team this conference has all year and is trying to play their way to a 4 seed, while Boise State is safely in as a 9/10 seed and Nevada at least looks to be on the right side of the bubble. Beyond that, Utah State is squarely on the cutline and could play their way in. Anyone else would be a bid-stealer.

Best team for March Madness: I wrote a while back about how San Diego State carries a lot of good into March despite the Mountain West’s horrid March reputation. Obviously I think that holds, so while I think they’re a Sweet Sixteen team, it’s worth exploring the others. The best non-SDSU case for a March run, to me, is Boise State. They’re the only potential at-large with a positive turnover and offensive rebounding margin to go with a top-15 defense. I don’t feel great about Nevada, and Utah State feels more like a team that can win one game but not 2-3.

The winner is…: No one in the last ten years has come from deeper than the 4 seed to win the conference tournament. My stab in the dark here is that Boise State goes back-to-back.

Watchability rating: 9/10. Everything about the Mountain West is a delight to me. Held back from a 10/10 only because the title game itself would require two of San Diego State/Utah State/New Mexico in it to get there.

Big East

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on FOX, 6:30 PM ET

• Favorite: UConn (33.8% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Creighton (23.6%), Marquette (16.7%), Xavier (16%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: UConn

  • Non-conference: UConn

  • Conference: Creighton

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.9

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 4

Fascinating! The best team (UConn) is the 4-seed; the best team in conference play, Creighton, is the 3. Marquette and Xavier finished ahead thanks to getting a few more lucky bounces, but all of the top four teams in this conference are legitimately really good units who can perform like Final Four or first-round exit teams on any given night. (Is this where I discuss that Providence should be a First Four team with their deeply unimpressive resume?)

Best team for March Madness: I don’t feel it’s controversial to say UConn, a top-5 metrics team who grades out extremely well from a shot volume perspective and from an everything-else perspective. Sight unseen I think they’re getting to the Elite Eight at least, but we’ll see. The other teams all feel deeply untrustworthy. Marquette’s defense is awful and their rebounding woes feel like the throughline to an early exit. Same for Xavier. Creighton feels like a team with a very specific range of 1-3 wins - no more, no less. Providence…meh. Of the potential bid thieves, St. John’s interests me because they’re a strong rebounding side that forces turnovers, but they have one win against a top 100 KenPom team since mid-January.

The winner is…: UConn over Creighton in the final. Feels right.

Watchability rating: 9/10.

Mid-American Conference

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 7:30 PM ET

• Favorite: Toledo (35.8% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Kent State (31%), Akron (15.3%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Toledo

  • Non-conference: Kent State

  • Conference: Toledo

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.7

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 5

MAC attack! Toledo and Kent State have run the MAC pretty much all season, but Akron has challenged quite well and won the tournament last year. The main storyline, as it’s been for a few years now: can Toledo finally get over the hump and win the conference? Their last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 1980. Since then, they’ve won six MAC regular season titles, but haven’t won the conference tournament.

Best team for March Madness: Toledo would be an extraordinarily unique team in modern Tournament history. I couldn’t find a single team from 2002 onward with a top 15 offense and a sub-200 defense that met their turnover/rebound numbers; the only team in the stratosphere was 2013 Iona (15 seed). The best bet for tourney success is pretty easily Kent State, who has a top-40 defense, a great turnover margin, and compares favorably with teams like 2021 Abilene Christian and 2012 Ohio. Beyond that, I could envision a path to Akron or Ohio making a game interesting.

The winner is…: Maybe it’s past history, maybe it’s just a feeling. But I cannot shake the thought that Akron somehow comes out on top again.

Watchability rating: 7/10. Toledo is a 10/10.

MAAC

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPNU, 7:30 PM ET

• Favorite: Iona (61.3% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Quinnipiac (16.4%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Iona

  • Non-conference: Iona

  • Conference: Iona

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.6

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 5

The Iona conference. The 1 seed has only won this conference once in the last ten tries, but the MAAC loves having a team other than the best team as its regular season champion. This year, those teams are the same, so Iona is a mega-favorite. Only Quinnipiac is within real shouting distance.

Best team for March Madness: Iona. Do you need more.

The winner is…: Hopefully Iona but given this conference’s history, I should probably pick Quinnipiac.

Watchability rating: 4/10. Iona is quite fun, but this isn’t a good shooting conference and it’s more known for quality defense than anything else.

ACC

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN, 8:30 PM ET

• Favorite: Duke (23.7% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Miami (18.6%), Virginia (17.9%), Clemson (11.6%), North Carolina (9.8%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Duke

  • Non-conference: Duke

  • Conference: Miami

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 3.0

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 7

Especially in this season, where the conference sucks and is profoundly overloved by a few legacy media types, this will be a nutty tournament. Duke is the highest-rated KenPom team at an elite #31 overall, which means that nine conferences have at least one team rated higher than the best of the SEC. It’s now looking like only five teams from the ACC will get in, which would tie their fewest since 2013. The problem with a wide-open conference is that you have to write blurbs like this, which mention only one team because I could envision any of seven different teams winning this tournament.

Best team for March Madness: Other than “none, hopefully,” I do have to give a real answer. None of these teams are even second-weekend locks, but of the field I feel most confident in…Virginia? I think? Virginia’s overall quality turnover numbers, solid defense, and the fact they’re super old makes me most confident in them to hit the Sweet Sixteen. But honestly, any of about six teams in this conference could do it or lose by double digits in the first round. (For the record, I like N.C. State somewhat, too.)

The winner is…: Surely a team. My best guess, purely a guess, is Miami over N.C. State in the final.

Watchability rating: 7/10. Interesting players, but no complete teams. Miami is the only team that I find consistently enjoyable night-over-night.

Conference USA

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on CBS Sports Network, 8:30 PM ET

• Favorite: Florida Atlantic (36.8% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: North Texas (26.8%), UAB (25.8%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Florida Atlantic

  • Non-conference: Florida Atlantic

  • Conference: North Texas

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.4

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 4

Let’s put this in BIG BOLD LETTERS so everyone gets the gist: YOU ARE ALLOWED TO ROOT FOR AN UPSET HERE! If you like basketball and like joy, you want North Texas or UAB to win this conference tournament. Why? The wonderful Florida Atlantic is widely seen as fully locked into the NCAA Tournament field, most likely as an 8 or 9 seed. Even a first-round loss here could only damage them so much, and I don’t think they’d even fall below a 10. C-USA hasn’t had multiple teams in the field since 2012. They deserve three, but we’ll settle for two. If you’re not sold, think of it this way: a North Texas or UAB win means an Arizona State or Wisconsin dropped from the field. We can only hope.

Best team for March Madness: It’s probably FAU, whose contemporaries averaged 1.06 wins per March visit, but there are some unfortunate comps like 2015 SMU (lost to an 11-seed in R64). Part of why I want multiple teams in is that North Texas and particularly UAB (who draws some seriously appetizing comparisons to 2011 Butler and 2014 Dayton) match up really well with similar teams from past seasons.

The winner is…: Rooting interest aside, I really do think UAB gets it done. They have to get past North Texas in the semis first, but UAB’s won 10 of 11 and is finally at full strength.

Watchability rating: 8/10. Shoving this to CBSSN is a crime.

Big West

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 9:30 PM ET

• Favorite: UC Irvine (32.6% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: UC Santa Barbara (17.6%), Cal State Fullerton (16.4%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: UC Irvine

  • Non-conference: UC Irvine

  • Conference: UC Irvine

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.2

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 4

This is the Grit Conference. The Knuck if You Buck Conference. You will receive a beating and a banging if you take the floor here. Lots of good defenses and solid play overall, but the class of the conference by a hair is UC Irvine once again. Both UCSB and Cal State Fullerton grade out well as challengers, and don’t sleep on Hawaii or UC Riverside or even Long Beach State. I like a lot of teams here! Worth noting that UCI and UCSB are expected to be 13 seeds, while the next five teams are 14-15 seeds.

Best team for March Madness: The comparisons here are unfortunate. UCI and UCSB didn’t have a win among their five most comparable squads, and Cal State Fullerton had one win. The team that graded out best was Hawaii, who offers a legit top-60 defense and a profoundly unique system that takes away three-point attempts and assists better than any other team in America. The teams they resemble most statistically, per the database? 2021 Morehead State….and 2022 Saint Peter’s.

The winner is…: The more I’ve looked into this conference the more I’ve been convinced it’s going to produce a strange(r) winner. 14-seed Cal State Fullerton it is?

Watchability rating: 5/10. A conference defiantly not for the faint of heart. This is not me saying it’s bad basketball, but rather that if UCSB isn’t in the title game it’s probably gonna be a 65-60 slugfest.

Pacific 12

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN, 10:30 PM ET

• Favorite: UCLA (46.5% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Arizona (28.6%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: UCLA

  • Non-conference: Arizona

  • Conference: UCLA

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.6

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 5

This is usually a more topsy-turvy deal, but this year it’s a two-team conference. UCLA and Arizona are both top ten teams and in UCLA’s case more of a top-five group that’s a title favorite. They sit #2 in KenPom and Arizona #11; no one else in the league is even in the top-30. USC looks more likely than not to make the Tournament, probably as a 9 seed or so, but it’s no hammerlock guarantee. Beyond that, I must admit I am rooting against Arizona State because they play unwatchable basketball. I am sorry.

Best team for March Madness: UCLA by a country mile, which I wrote about for The Field of 68 over the weekend. Best team, and based on past comparisons, #2 in title odds for 2023. I love watching Arizona but they strike me as a team that’s going to lose in the Round of 32 to a 7 seed. USC…eh. I actually kinda like Oregon to make some noise if they win this tournament.

The winner is…: Entirely dependent on Jaylen Clark’s availability for UCLA. Given the uncertainty I’d take Arizona.

Watchability rating: 10/10 for UCLA/Arizona assuming it happens. About a 7/10 for the rest of the conference, minus Oregon, who I do like watching.

WAC

Championship game: March 11 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 11:30 (!) PM ET

• Favorite: Sam Houston State (35.6% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Utah Valley (28.2%), Southern Utah (11.3%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Sam Houston State

  • Non-conference: Sam Houston State

  • Conference: Utah Valley

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 1.8

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 1

For a one-bid league, this is a beacon of calm. Nine out of ten times the best team in the league analytically has gone on to win the title. However, no WAC has ever been seeded quite like this one, which is a combination of regular season performance and KenPom ratings. It’s made Sam Houston State - who went 14-4 in WAC play to Utah Valley’s 15-3 - the 1 seed. Personally? I love it. The other thing is that this is the best the WAC has been in 15 years, with six teams inside the KenPom top 150 and both UVU and SHSU inside the top 80. The winner of this conference, whoever it may be, is very likely to be a tough draw in the Big Dance.

Best team for March Madness: Utah Valley’s defense is nasty and it blocks a ton of shots; Southern Utah plays fast and furious; Grand Canyon is a fun watch. But if you want to see a WAC team win a game, your best bet is Sam Houston State. Of their 10 closest comparables, four won at least one game in the NCAA Tournament. Their combo of elite defense + high TO% + 5th in 3PT% is real rough if you’re a 5 seed.

The winner is…: Picking the favorites in these one-bid leagues is a fool’s errand but Sam Houston State simply feels like the safest bet.

Watchability rating: 6/10. This is not to say it’s middling basketball. It’s just that the two best teams here play a style of ball that could well result in a 60-58 championship game that ends at 1:45 AM my time.

Ivy League

Championship game: March 12 (Sunday) on ESPN2, 12 PM ET

• Favorites: Yale (39.1% chance of winning), Princeton (38.2%)

• Darkhorses: Penn (14.1%), Cornell (8.6%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Yale

  • Non-conference: Yale

  • Conference: Yale

• Average seed of winner, 2017-present (when Ivy began playing a tournament): 1.3

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 4 possible), 2012-present: 1

True to form, the Ivy has the most unique tournament out there. Four teams, two days, and an ability to settle things as quickly as possible. I’ll admit to you as a basketball fan that I miss the more unique thing of just sending the regular season champ or the occasional two-team playoff, but it is what it is. Anyway, Yale has consistently graded out as the best team here this season. The other three here are solid, but none have touched Yale’s heights.

Best team for March Madness: To be honest I don’t expect any of these four to have much March success, simply because there are not many (if any) quality comparisons. That being said, your best shot here is either Yale or Cornell. Yale is the best team and has a solid offense and defense, while Cornell is at minimum capable of losing a game 104-89 to a 3 seed.

The winner is…: Yale. The temptation to pick Princeton, because this will be held at Princeton, is real. But Yale swept them during the regular season and looks a clear step ahead of everyone else.

Watchability rating: 7/10. The Ivy actually plays very entertaining if very flawed basketball these days.

Atlantic 10

Championship game: March 12 (Sunday) on CBS, 1 PM ET

• Favorite: Dayton (36.4% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: VCU (27.5%), Saint Louis (13.7%), Duquesne (9.3%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Dayton

  • Non-conference: Dayton

  • Conference: Dayton

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 3.6

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 6

Appropriately, this deep disappointment of a conference will have a wide-open tournament, both historically and on-paper. Dayton being the best team here is pretty funny because Dayton has played horrible basketball for half the season. VCU is 19-3 since December 7, at least, but their offense is horrendous. Saint Louis surely is itching to fire Travis Ford for blowing the best on-paper roster they’ve had in a decade. Duquesne, Fordham, and even George Mason (six wins in a row!) are the only good stories here, really.

Best team for March Madness: None? Across the top eight teams, there were a total of three comparables that won a single game. The best shot is probably VCU, whose offense is indeed a brutal watch but has a top-25 defense. Their most recent comparison actually did win a game: 2021 Abilene Christian. (Second-best shot, funny enough, is Fordham.)

The winner is…: Maybe I’m being negative but it feels like we’re gonna get a winner that satisfies no one. So: Saint Louis over Fordham in the final.

Watchability rating: 4/10. No thanks! (Unless friend of the Substack Kim English wins it, in which case it was a 10/10.)

SEC

Championship game: March 12 (Saturday) on ESPN, 1 PM ET

• Favorite: Alabama (34.8% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Tennessee (28.7%), Texas A&M (12.1%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Alabama

  • Non-conference: Tennessee

  • Conference: Alabama

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.2

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 5

A year after finding out the hard way that the Selection Committee does not value anything that happens after Friday, the SEC has done a tremendous job of Not Learning Their Lesson and changing nothing at all. Very good stuff from an unserious conference.

Alabama has been the best team in this conference basically since the end of January, but the Brandon Miller saga has turned them into a pretty middling team over the last few weeks. Tennessee had three great months and an absolute nightmare of a finish to the season. Texas A&M had the reverse. Kentucky surged at the end and looks like a potential second-weekend team. If you say anything other than Dennis Gates Is God, Missouri fans get unreasonably angry online, so I will refrain from speaking on them whatsoever.

Best team for March Madness: Well, it will come as no surprise that the best-ish case is Alabama, whose comparables averaged 2.2 wins in March. (No one went to the title game, though.) However, you might wish to know that Tennessee’s top 10 averaged 1.9, with seven of the 10 making the Sweet Sixteen or further. Beyond that, not much to the SEC, though Missouri will be the first team in KenPom history to be a 9 seed or better while having a top 15 offense and a sub-175 defense.

The winner is…: No one has come from lower than the 5 seed to win it since expansion. I would be surprised if this wasn’t an Alabama or Tennessee show, and I am nothing if not an idiot. So: Tennessee over Kentucky in the final.

Watchability rating: 8/10.

AAC

Championship game: March 12 (Sunday) on ESPN, 3:15 PM ET

• Favorite: Houston (67.3% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Memphis (15.2%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Houston

  • Non-conference: Houston

  • Conference: Houston

• Average seed of winner, 2014-present: 1.5

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 8 possible), 2014-present: 2

The Houston Invitational. I imagine there are other teams here - Memphis will be in the Field of 68 - but if anyone else wins this it would be a shocker. One time in eight tries has the winner not been a top-two team, and it was 3-seed UConn in 2016.

Best team for March Madness: Houston. Wow. Shocker.

The winner is…: Houston over Memphis in the final by 12.

Watchability rating: 8/10 for Houston vs. Memphis, 5/10 for anything else.

Big Ten

Championship game: March 12 (Sunday) on CBS, 3:30 PM ET

• Favorite: Purdue (40.2% chance of winning)

• Darkhorses: Michigan State (11.9%), Indiana (11.1%), Northwestern (10.2%)

• Best team…

  • Overall: Purdue

  • Non-conference: Purdue

  • Conference: Purdue

• Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.6

• Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 10 possible), 2012-present: 6

This would be the Purdue Invitational if I had any confidence this will go normally, which it will not. The Big Ten had it right years ago when they played their conference tournament a full week before Selection Sunday. Perhaps it was not a coincidence that Michigan, with an extra week of rest compared to everyone else in 2018, made the national title game. Then they moved it to Selection Sunday for money.

Purdue will be the favorite, but they will not win this, because the Big Ten is deeply determined to get in their own way. All of Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, and Penn State could reasonably win this.

Best team for March Madness: Purdue, but I have to admit that I don’t feel great about them making the Final Four. Beyond that, this is the year that Iowa finally makes a run. Just kidding.

The winner is…: Indiana. Only once in the last decade has anyone come from the non-double byes to do it.

Watchability rating: 7/10. The most 7/10 basketball conference in 2023.