let’s gooooooo
(3) Kansas State (-1.5) vs. (9) Florida Atlantic, 6:09 PM ET, TBS
Well, this is only the most painful thing in the whole entire world to be writing about! Kansas State survived a Michigan State shooting explosion by making tough shot after tough shot; Markquis Nowell put together one of the best individual performances by a guard I have ever seen on a big stage. They’re 40 minutes away from their first Final Four since 1964, aka well before this Tournament was The Tournament.
Florida Atlantic did the evil deed to Tennessee and they will pay for their sins against me. Just kidding. FAU is an insanely tough, athletic squad that still hasn’t managed to light it up from three yet this Tournament despite always having that in their back pocket. Against a KSU side that bleeds turnovers offensively with a scary frequency, their pressure on defense could be a difference-maker.
What this comes down to for me is how real the FAU ball-screen defense is or isn’t. Against a relatively light schedule they rated out as a 96th-percentile P&R defense, which is of the utmost importance when your opponent has Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson on the roster. If this is a game where FAU’s winning the turnover battle and KSU isn’t hitting 500 tough shots to stay ahead, I’d take the underdog. If KSU exercises ball control and FAU still can’t get going from three, it’s the Wildcats night.
An X-factor here (as pointed out by Jordan Majewski) is that FAU’s ISO defense is pretty porous, i.e. they’ve struggled in negative 1-on-1 matchups. Against KSU, which has two elite 1-on-1 scorers…not ideal. Then again, if Nowell’s ankle is the size of a softball that changes things big time.
Prediction: Honestly I could go either way here…but I’ve bet against Kansas State every single round and they keep winning. Either I am simply a big dumb idiot or this time, I pull an accidental reverse jinx. Florida Atlantic 71, Kansas State 70.
I am pulling for: I hate to say I’m pulling against KSU but I guess that’s what it looks like; Florida Atlantic excites me way more as a story.
(4) UConn (-2.5) vs. (3) Gonzaga, 8:49 PM ET, TBS
Potentially the Game of the Year after we already had two Game of the Year candidates two nights ago. Both teams should want to play fast and both teams have elite offenses; I could easily see this game finishing in the 80s or even 90s depending on if we get the overtime I’m hoping for. What a beautiful sport it is, folks.
UConn holds a massive defensive edge here against a Gonzaga D that’s struggled all season long to keep opponents in front of them; along with that no one has managed to keep UConn off the offensive boards at all this March. Sanogo and especially Clingan could eat on the boards against a relatively small Zags frontline, and if UConn’s hot-and-cold shooting shows up it could be Gonzaga in the unfamiliar position of having to keep pace.
On the other end you’ve got Gonzaga, a team with the best offense by a mile this sport has to offer and elite shooting and scoring options at every spot on the floor. The spotlight will obviously be on Timme and Strawther but Anton Watson profiles as a serious Dangerman on offense here, with a uniquely well-rounded skillset to attack UConn’s slower frontcourt.
What I’m watching for here is how Gonzaga can hang with UConn in the post if at all defensively. No one on Gonzaga has defended post-ups well at any point this season, which is uh a problem when the other team is UConn. The other thing, though, is that UConn’s board-crashing can often work against them. If Gonzaga rebounds well, they figure to have an above-average amount of transition opportunities, which plays right into their hands.
Again, this is the rare Elite Eight game I can point to on-paper and say that both teams will want to push the pace. UConn wisely believes that they can create a possessions edge by getting Gonzaga out of order, crashing the boards, and generating a very high volume of shots. Gonzaga believes that UConn’s over-reliance on OREBs could lead to a lot of transition points, and it’s not like this UConn offense is stellar at taking care of the ball in general. I cannot wait for this game.
Prediction: Whew. Your guess is as good as mine, man. Not that they feel like a Team of Destiny of any sort, but for all their midseason flaws UConn has snapped into form at a level that even surpasses (for me) what Gonzaga’s done the last two months. Game of the year indeed. UConn 82, Gonzaga 80.