Elite Eight NCAA Tournament preview, Sunday

PLUS Elite Eight NCAAW previews

Well: we have three days left of men’s college basketball this season and four of women’s. This is sad! But here is something that is not sad: I am going to Houston this coming weekend. (This decision was made long ago before Tennessee’s season outcome and was not centered around them, of course.) If you are also going to be in Houston, send me a DM on twitter (@statsbywill) or an email here and let me know. I’d love to say hello. Bonus: if you’re a runner and are willing to do 5-10 miles in the Texas heat, send another email and we’ll link up for a group run or something one morning.

(6) Creighton (-2) vs. (5) San Diego State, 2:20 PM ET, CBS

Now this? This is the good stuff. If you are of a certain age - me being 29, you being…I don’t know - you have a very specific image of these two teams. For SDSU it’s the Kawhi/Steve Fisher team of 2011 being one of the coolest, most delightful groups I have watched. For Creighton it’s the Doug McDermott teams of 2012-2014 that made MVC hoops such a fun watch. To finally see these two programs rewarded with a deep March run, 40 minutes from the Final Four…folks, I’m verklempt!

Creighton edges ahead of SDSU in the metrics but they were both top-15 teams in KenPom entering the Tournament. Their resumes probably gave them appropriate seeds, but the resumes don’t match the on-court performance. This is more like a 3 vs. 4 for the right to a Final Four bid, if that makes the NFL freaks who hate upsets any happier. (It doesn’t.)

Anyway, there is an actual basketball game being played. Creighton’s goal won’t be to play as fast as Alabama hoped to, but the Bluejays want to play much faster than San Diego State will desire to. The Aztecs want this game to be played somewhere in the 60s; Creighton wants it in the 70s or higher. San Diego State is very good regardless, but they’re 5-3 in games (25-3 otherwise) where the possession counter hits 72 or above. They want a rock fight, because that’s what they’re most well-built for.

Creighton’s ball-screen offense is terrific, with point Ryan Nembhard (as well as Trey Alexander) running it with high efficiency. Unlike most teams reliant on pick-and-rolls, though, Creighton also has a great post offense with Ryan Kalkbrenner down low. It’s a one-two combo that’s had a lot of success this March, and when you have multiple counters and answers for opponent strategies, that’s what keeps you alive.

San Diego State runs a less beautiful offense, but they’ve got a few different ways of creating quality scoring opportunities. SDSU lives in the midrange more than any team left in the field, which creates a fascinating dichotomy with the heavy-threes Creighton offense. The Aztecs run a variety of really good dribble handoff sets, generally with Darrion Trammell or Matt Bradley on the receiving end, and I figure you’ll see plenty of those against Creighton as SDSU tries to use a minor speed advantage.

The best path here for the Aztecs isn’t hitting a lot of shots but just getting off a ton in the first place. SDSU figures to have a giant shot volume advantage against a Creighton offense that doesn’t hit the boards well and a Creighton defense that rarely forces turnovers. Like, to the extent that I’d project SDSU to win the turnover battle by 4-5 and the OREB% battle by 3-4%. That’s huge in a game that’s a rock fight, but less huge if Creighton’s hitting their shots.

The honest-to-God best shot for SDSU is if Brian Dutcher and crew refocus the offense for post-ups and Darrion Trammell running around on the perimeter. It’s unlikely that Matt Bradley will have as bad of a game as he did against Alabama for the first 35 minutes, but Bradley is terrific at shooting San Diego State both into and out of a competitive game. Trammell’s shot selection is far less offensive to me, and it’s the same guy that shot 35% on threes at Seattle with a significantly tougher quality of shot.

Creighton, meanwhile, should run Baylor Scheierman and Alexander off-ball screens for the full 40 minutes. For all the Aztecs do flawlessly on defense, they haven’t handled super screen-y offenses with the utmost efficiency this year. I’d like to see Creighton generate some open threes that way.

Prediction: The more I think about this one, the more it feels like that shot volume advantage could be massive for the Aztecs, particularly in a one-off neutral court battle with a relatively unfamiliar shooting background. Worth noting: in the five games most similar to this one in the NCAAT database I’ve created, the average amount of total points scored was 121.6. Very willing to be wrong here. San Diego State 62, Creighton 60.

I am rooting for: The best game possible. I love these programs.

(2) Texas (-4) vs. (5) Miami, 5:05 PM ET, CBS

One of these programs I expected to be here; the other I have bet against three rounds in a row and continue to be shocked that a team who actively refrains from playing defense a lot of the time is still going. What that means, though, is a high-quality affair between a coach fighting for his job (which I think we can assume he likely has?) and a coach fighting for one last Final Four run before he potentially hangs it up.

A cool and great thing about Texas/the Rodney Terry thing is that after I created this graphic for their game against Tennessee in January:

Rodney Terry’s completely turned the whole thing around. Since January 29, the day after Texas gave up 82 to Tennessee (lol), Texas’s defense has risen from 35th to 10th in KenPom and has played like the fourth-best unit in America, per Torvik. It’s not even driven by a 3PT% outlier or anything; they’ve just forced a lot of turnovers, gotten way tougher inside the perimeter, and forced opponents into much worse possessions on the whole. Defense is more effort-based than offense so perhaps it just took some time to rally the troops, but even so, I would argue their defense is a hair better than season-long analytics might give credit for.

Miami hasn’t seen the same rise on defense, but their offense is the second-best unit remaining in the field (behind UConn, who gets their efficiency in a much different manner). I don’t think I need to add a ton of analysis here because if you’ve watched Miami play you’re quite aware of why they’re good. They have a starting lineup with four legit shooters and a center (Norchad Omier) who is the most versatile 5 remaining in this bizarre NCAA Tournament. They’re shooting 40% from three over the last two months and have shown no signs of slowing down.

This is a fairly typical March game: both offenses want to get out and run, but both defenses want to slow the game down. I think a faster pace might actually favor Texas, because they’re the better team and a faster pace maximizes the number of possessions where you can show off your team-wide superiority. These are two elite transition offenses going up against two great transition denial defenses; whoever wins that battle likely wins the game. The only other X-factor I’ve got on paper is if Texas can create a serious turnover advantage; the battle of the boards figures to be roughly equal.

Prediction: The more I’ve thought about this game what I keep coming back to is this: Texas has a variety of paths to getting stops. Miami’s path is just…hoping Texas goes cold from three? Or can’t get an offensive rebound, I guess. Again, willing to be dead wrong. Average total points scored of the five most similar games: 136.4. Texas 73, Miami 63.

I am rooting for: Texas. Nothing against Miami whatsoever, who are really fun to watch, but…Rodney Terry.

Women’s Elite Eight games, Sunday

(3) LSU (-9.5) vs. (9) Miami, 7 PM ET, ESPN

Actual Real Human, For Real This Time No Joke Kim Mulkey and LSU take on the surprise of the tournament in Miami tonight. LSU may have the single best player left in the field in Angel Reese, a superstar who’s been unstoppable in the post and is a dominant force on the boards. Miami doesn’t have a player that can match up with that on paper, and Lola Pendande (Miami’s starting center) is a very good player who simply hasn’t had to beat and bang with a force quite like Reese.

A Miami path to victory, and human satisfaction, is reliant on Miami playing against type and hitting a ton of threes. Miami’s three-point attempt rate ranks just 267th, but star Haley Cavinder is a 40% deep shooter who's capable of getting super hot from downtown. If they turn her loose and let her take 10 threes, it’s the best path to the variance needed to overcome LSU. Even so, LSU simply feels too powerful in general. If Reese were to have an off-night, supporting cast members Alexis Morris, Flau’jae Johnson, and LaDazhia Williams all rate out as better players than even Cavinder does.

If Miami holds LSU to a 37% OREB% or lower, it’s a success. If they force LSU to turn it over 16+ times, it’s a success. Otherwise…well, brace yourself.

Prediction: This Miami run has been extremely impressive stuff; I figure said impressive stuff likely ends here. LSU 79, Miami 58.

I am rooting for: Miami.

(2) Iowa (-5.5) vs. (5) Louisville, 9 PM ET, ESPN

Alright, look. Let’s say you’re a loyal reader of this website. Let’s say that you’re not well-versed in women’s college basketball. Let’s even say that you may actively be hostile, which is a sad way to live but whatever, I guess your mind’s made up. I am asking you to watch this basketball game. I have one reason why.

Caitlin Clark rocks, dude. There are a collection of internet posters I normally love who have deemed Clark a Loser Player and Not A Real Winner and frankly they are wrong. Here is my rationale: she hits a ton of cool shots and loves playing basketball and also is the most fun player NCAAW has had in years. (Also, Iowa is 12 points better per 100 possessions with her on the court than off, so.) There are other excellent Iowa stars - Monika Czinano, McKenna Warnock, Kate Martin - but none have the ability to produce radioactive heat on the court like Clark. I cannot get enough of watching Caitlin Clark play basketball.

At the same time, this Louisville team has developed into a fun story of its own. This is not the most talented team of the Jeff Walz era, but the Cards have an excellent defense and an all-time villain in Hailey Van Lith. If you haven’t watched her play, you need to. I’ve seen very few players in the men’s and women’s games be so effective at getting under their opponent’s skin.

The actual on-court strategy battle here should be a good one. Lisa Bluder’s offense wants to play a transition-heavy affair, but in half-court a lot of their action filters through the post (Czinano) and/or Clark cooking someone in isolation. Walz’s defense has been abysmal in isolation situations but terrific in the post. On the other end, Iowa’s defense is, erm, suspect. They’ve been horrific as a ball-screen defensive unit for a lot of the year. If Van Lith starts cooking in the pick-and-roll the path for a mild upset is very much there.

Prediction: There’s a lot of good to both of these teams, and as a coaching matchup this one’s hard to beat. Slight edge to the team with more talent, to put it simply. Iowa 77, Louisville 70.

I am rooting for: Iowa but Louisville is great too.