Enter the Mind Palace: 2022-23 Tennessee vs. All The Other Tennessees

fine, let's have the debate you begged for

So: as mentioned in yesterday’s rather sweet-hearted recap, I was always going to do this post, even before it became a sports radio talking point of sorts. The aim of this concept is not to divide the fanbase or, erm, “disrespect” a previous team. It is simply a thought exercise - entering the Tennessee Orange Pill Mind Palace - to show you why I, William (REDACTED) Warren, believe that 2022-23 Tennessee is the best version of the teams I’ve seen in my lifetime.

I would kind of prefer to not write this because it seems excessive. But! Several have asked for the explanation of the insanity of declaring the team KenPom, Torvik, and every other predictive metric site in existence has marked as Tennessee’s best team in school history to be…uh, Tennessee’s best team in school history. So we’ll get into it, but I think it’s probably important to provide answers to certain questions in the process, such as:

• Where does the 2022-23 team rank all-time on KenPom/Torvik/etc. compared to other Tennessee teams?

• Why is this Tennessee team your pick and not the ones that were #1 in the AP Poll?

• How does this team’s resume compare to previous teams at this point in the season?

• How does this offense/defense match up to previous teams?

• What does the collective field of college basketball surrounding them look like compared to previous teams?

Plus some other scattered quick questions at the bottom.

This post is free, but essentially every other Tennessee analysis post is not. Consider signing up below for $20/year until January 27. Thanks :)

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Where does the 2022-23 team rank all-time on KenPom/Torvik compared to other Tennessee teams?

Well, lucky for you, this is very easy…in some regard. You can always do the straight year-end comparison for previous Tennessee teams to 2022-23, which would result in the following on KenPom:

1. 2022-23 (2nd overall, +29.0 Adjusted Efficiency Margin/AdjEM)

2. 2018-19 (10th overall, +26.2 AdjEM)

3. 2021-22 (9th overall, +25.1 AdjEM)

4. 2013-14 (10th overall, +23.7 AdjEM)

5. 2007-08 (13th overall, +22.2 AdjEM)

The 2009-10 Elite Eight team rates out as Pearl’s fourth-best, which is a nice time to remind you that said team was insanely lucky to get as far as they did. (Which is fine, that’s March.) But I also think this is kind of a silly exercise, because it is late January, not April, when the season ends. KenPom’s site has numbers on February 1 of every year dating back to 1997 (!), which gives us a pretty comprehensive view of how every Tennessee squad was graded at this point (roughly) of their respective seasons.

As of February 1 (or January 24, because that’s when you’re reading this) of a respective year:

1. 2022-23 (2nd overall, +28.95 AdjEM)

2. 2018-19 (6th overall, +28.94 AdjEM)

3. 2017-18 (9th overall, +23.76 AdjEM)

4. 1999-00 (9th overall, +23.58 AdjEM)

5. 2021-22 (13th overall, +22.96 AdjEM)

The 2007-08 team, one that we would all agree was and is a personal favorite, entered February 13th-best in the nation and seventh-best among this list of 26 entrants. Is it fun to look back fondly on what they did? Obviously. But: we forget how many stressful nights that team produced. They went 13-3 in games decided by six or fewer points. Some of you would point to that as clutch; I would point to it as both talent and luck combining together for a special run. That was probably a solid 3 seed masquerading as the #1 team in America thanks to that combination. Knowing what I know now, it is less surprising they nearly lost to 7-seed Butler (a team that finished top 20 in KenPom).

But: this is the best case I think one can make for 2018-19. At the turn of February, they were basically exactly as good as this current team with a far better offense and better wins. You could point to that as your reasoning if you’d like. But: I’d repeat what I shared from Torvik yesterday, which is how each team looked on January 23 of its respective season.

At minimum, the 2022-23 team should consider themselves equals to 2018-19. Given the opportunity ahead of them this week in playing Georgia and Texas, a combined margin of victory of +25 or above would lock them in as superior, by however small a margin it would be.

Why is this Tennessee team your pick and not the ones that were #1 in the AP Poll?

We’ll break down the case for both teams - 2007-08 and 2018-19 - and why I didn’t pick them in order.

2007-08

So: this was the first great team I remember watching at Tennessee. The first season I watched was 2001-02; while I really loved the 2005-06 team they definitely felt like they were living on a razor’s edge at all times and were overachieving. 2007-08, in real time, felt like a legitimate top five team. At least to the point of February 1, they really did have a fabulous resume, ranking fifth in Wins Above Bubble per Torvik:

But even at that peak, they played like a borderline top 10 team. I really think people have forgotten all of the close calls this deeply talented group had:

• A narrow 74-72 win in November over future 7 seed West Virginia. (Fine.)

• A 76-70 win over 18-13 Chattanooga.

• An 88-82 win over 12 seed Western Kentucky.

• An 85-83 home win over NIT Ole Miss.

• A 47-45 win at LSU, who finished 6-10 in SEC play.

• A 74-71 win at Georgia, who finished 4-12. (And won the SEC Tournament!)

• A terrifying 89-87 escape over 5-11 South Carolina at the SEC Tournament all of five days after beating South Carolina 89-56.

• And, finally, beating 7-seed Butler 76-71 in overtime.

The closest comparison would ironically be something like last year’s Auburn team, who also climbed to #1 despite never impressing in the metrics, posted tons of close escapes, had a similar underperformance in the SEC Tournament, and slid from a sure 1 seed to a 2 seed with a great, easy-on-paper draw. And then they got demolished in the Round of 32 by a 10 seed.

2007-08 was a great team I had a lot of fun watching in the moment. I would not describe them as the best Tennessee team I have ever seen. I wouldn’t describe them as better than 2022-23, 2018-19, or even 2021-22. This will offend some, I’m sure, but the numbers are the numbers.

2018-19

This is the more direct case, mostly because the 2018-19 team was actually #1 in the AP Poll on January 24 of that season. (This also happens to be one day after the four-year anniversary of the 2018-19 team escaping 0-18 Vanderbilt in overtime.) Plus, you see those KenPom numbers above and the case is a lot more obvious. On February 1, they were basically dead equal to 2022-23 with a superior resume. They had 5.6 Wins Above Bubble, which ranked fifth-highest; 2022-23 sits at 2.9 WAB which is 18th.

So, obviously, you’d take 2018-19 over these guys. Right? Right?

Uh…well, not exactly. That year’s case is pretty close, in that the top five WAB teams were four of the same teams as the top five efficiency teams. The COVID world is quite different. This year’s top five WAB teams rank 6th, 3rd, 11th, 10th, and 26th in efficiency. The top two teams in efficiency - Houston and Tennessee - rank 6th and 18th in WAB. I don’t think you can really go resume versus resume because 2018-19 and 2022-23 are almost completely opposite basketball seasons.

More importantly, it’s probably worth seeing how each got their key wins. (All numbers ahead per Torvik.) 2018-19’s top three wins (per WAB) were #1 Gonzaga, #24 Florida (road), and #20 Louisville; 2022-23 has #11 Kansas, #44 USC, and #74 Mississippi State (road). Obviously, 2018-19 looks better on paper. But:

• 2018-19: combined margin of victory of +25, average lead of +0.97 points

• 2022-23: combined margin of victory of +32, average lead of +2.8 points

While the competition in 2022-23 is lighter, this team has been more dominant and has been able to step on the gas from start to finish in a different way. Both teams had played four games with a final margin of 6 or less, going 3-1; both teams had eight Quadrant 1 and 2 wins at this point of the season. And for all the hollering about Tennessee’s 3PT% allowed this season, which would be a record low, they’ve given up a FT% of 74.1%, which is 5% above what would be expected. Meanwhile, 2018-19 Tennessee had extreme free throw luck, giving up a 65.5% hit rate when 70.7% would’ve been expected.

You could argue that’s the entire difference in how you felt after the Kentucky game, in which a team that’s shot 68% on the season shot 22-for-25 from the line, or five makes more than anticipated. Did the 2018-19 offense have far fewer off nights? Of course. But the 2018-19 defense struggled to get going plenty, too. The 2018-19 team, at this time, was 1st in offense and 36th in defense; this year’s squad is 40th and 1st.

Perhaps I was wrong in that 2022-23 is the best team I’ve ever seen to this point. I don’t think I’m wrong in, at minimum, considering them equals to 2018-19 with a greater ceiling because of superior shot selection and a better best unit.

How does this team’s resume compare to previous teams at this point in the season?

Well, not ideally. I really do not think it matters much because the top NET teams this year don’t have great resumes, while the great resume teams don’t have great efficiency numbers. There’s a general consensus of who’s going to end up as 1 and 2 seeds, but this is not going to be like past years where there are dominant teams with elite resumes.

Either way, it’s an interesting question. I left out 2019-20 and 2020-21 for similar and obvious reasons, which are that one season was rendered pointless while the other didn’t have a real non-conference schedule. That still gives you 14 seasons of data to work with on Torvik. Here’s the best resumes Tennessee’s had from 2007-onward, using the Wins Above Bubble metric on January 24 of that year:

1. 2018-19 (+4.8)

2. 2007-08 (+4.4)

3. 2022-23 (+2.9)

4. 2017-18 (+2.8)

5. 2021-22 (+2.4)

6. 2009-10 (+2.1)

I’d like to include 2005-06 in here for the obvious reasons, but the closest comparison we can get is that Tennessee was 6th in RPI, which would’ve put them right in line with where the 2007-08 and 2018-19 teams were at that time. You can assume they probably would’ve been ahead of 2022-23.

Still, you can see the obvious story. 2018-19 and 2007-08 had better resumes at this time of the season, and even the 2017-18 team nearly surpasses this one despite a 2-3 SEC start. Some of this is Tennessee’s own doing - remove McNeese State from the schedule for Tulane or Louisiana-Lafayette and that instantly adds another 0.1 to your WAB - but some of it’s just bad luck. Tennessee did not get to choose Butler or USC as Battle 4 Atlantis opponents; Tennessee also did not get to choose an SEC that has come in way under expectation. The 2018-19 SEC had three teams finish 15-3 or better, which is the only time in conference history that’s happened.

Either way, you gotta win a few, and Tennessee could see their +2.9 number hit +3.6 or so if they go 2-0 this week.

How does this offense/defense match up to previous teams?

Again, as of February 1 for every other year, as of January 24 for the 2022-23 edition.

Offenses

1. 2018-19 (123 AdjO)

2. 2007-08 (116.7 AdjO)

3. 2013-14 (115.7 AdjO)

4. 2017-18 (115.6 AdjO)

5. 2005-06 (115.4 AdjO)

6. 2008-09 (114.6 AdjO)

7. 2016-17 (113.1 AdjO)

8. 2022-23 (112.8 AdjO)

Defenses

1. 2022-23 (83.8 AdjD)

2. 2020-21 (86.6 AdjD)

3. 2021-22 (87 AdjD)

4. 1999-00 (87.7 AdjD)

5. 1998-99 (88.2 AdjD)

6. …

7. …

8. …

9. …

10. 2018-19 (94 AdjD)

11. 2007-08 (94.4 AdjD)

The offense is admittedly not great; the defense is literally the greatest in KenPom’s database. That’s influenced by the aforementioned shooting luck, but it will finish the season no worse than a top-3 unit.

What does the collective field of college basketball surrounding them look like compared to previous teams?

Uh, garbage.

The short answer here is that I’m already writing about this next week. The long(er) answer, in a Tennessee-specific sense, requires comparing the fields in years Tennessee has been competitive (aka, a 6 seed or higher) to 2022-23. That gives us a data set of the following 10 seasons: 1998-99, 1999-00, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2009-10, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2020-21, and 2021-22.

Among these 10 seasons, the 2022-23 field compares as such:

• Top 5: 11th of 11 (average AdjEM of +28; 1998-2022 average +29.98)

• 6-10: 10th of 11 (+23.12, beating out 2005-06’s +22.99; 1998-2022 average +25.22)

• 11-25: 10th of 11 (+19.34, beating out 2005-06’s +19.23; 1998-2022 average +20.7)

• 26-50: 7th of 11 (+15.84; 1998-2022 average +15.75)

In layman’s terms, this is the weakest top end of the field in modern history. Or at least since we’ve been able to look at this on the internet. The closest comparison at this point to 2022-23 is 2005-06, which you will remember as the year 11 seed George Mason made a Final Four. The good news for Tennessee: all of the top four KenPom teams entering the 2006 NCAA Tournament made the Sweet Sixteen. The bad news: none made the Final Four.

Still, this should outline that this is a particularly unique opportunity for Tennessee. The top end of the field is extremely weak, and even the 11-25 midpack is the third-weakest of the last 25 years. (I suggest that younger readers read up on the 2002 NCAA Tournament, which this also resembles somewhat and which had a 10 and a 12 seed in its Elite Eight.) Tennessee’s not going to be in the position they were in 2018-19, when their same end-of-year efficiency margin of +26.98 would’ve had them as the fourth-best team in the 2022-23 field instead of the ninth.

I cannot stress this enough: this is not like the other years. If Tennessee loses, it will not be because of a bad draw or poor bracket luck or whatever; they will have made their own bed, whether by a bad shooting day or by a great one for the opponent.

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That covers 99% of the questions asked, I think. Here’s the other 1% with some rapid-fire answers.

• Have you considered the fact that you’re wrong? I have made a minor career out of being wrong.

• Is saying the 2022-23 team is even close to 2018-19 disrespectful? No. Not any more than claiming the 2021-22 team was encroaching on their territory after the SEC Tournament win.

• Grant Williams laughed at Wes Rucker for saying the exact thing you’re saying. And that is fine! Grant played on the 2018-19 team; of course he is going to be very defensive of the team he played on as being the best Tennessee has ever put out. There are no players who played for both the 2018-19 and 2022-23 teams. If you asked Santiago Vescovi this exact question, he’d probably say this year’s team is #1, because he played on it. It’s not that deep.

• But the offensive droughts! Tennessee is actually better than the national average at avoiding offensive scoring droughts, per Evan Miyakawa. Also:

Evan Miyakawa @EvanMiya

🧵The "Kill Shot": Tracking double digit scoring runs in games (10-0 or better) over the course of the season. A team with more scoring runs than the opponent wins 81% of the time. Here's the landscape of the top 75 teams in terms of runs scored and runs conceded👇

Last year’s team very much did not do that.

Evan Miyakawa @EvanMiya

The "Kill Shot": Tracking double digit scoring runs in games (10-0 or better) over the course of the season. A team with more scoring runs than the opponent wins 82% of the time. Here's the landscape of the top 75 teams in terms of runs scored and runs conceded👇

• Have you considered that I don’t care about your stupid numbers? Obviously. Who wants to look at graphs while having a hoop convo?

• What if the 2022-23 team ends up going south and ending up worse than not only 2018-19, but 2021-22? Won’t you look stupid? I mean I guess so. But that’s the fun of this: we are all guessing. What if they sustain this level of play? What if they get better? It is all on the table, still.