Friday NCAA Tournament preview

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Same as yesterday: 16 previews. First four are free. Enjoy.

(7) Michigan State (-1.5) vs. (10) USC, 12:15 PM ET, CBS

Whereas yesterday started off with a bully-ball banger, this feels like a mid-off. Both of these teams attempt a ton of mid-range twos, with USC being a hair better at knocking them down than MSU is. The biggest on-paper edge in this game might go to Michigan State on the boards, as USC is one of the worst overall rebounding units in the field. A strange dynamic is that Michigan State hits almost 40% of their threes but rarely takes them. If Walker/Hauser/Akins commit to taking extra deep balls it widens their path to a deep run, but it could also mean an early exit.

Two things to watch for:

• The Enfield Classic. Andy Enfield’s defenses are always elite at taking away easy twos, and this year’s unit is no different, sitting at #2 in 2PT% allowed. That could spell serious trouble for an MSU offense ranking 279th in 2PT%.

• Threes. MSU’s 18-5 when they outshoot their opponent from deep and 1-7 otherwise.

Prediction: On paper this is super-even, and personnel-wise it feels very even, which leads me to just go with one coach over the other. Michigan State 66, USC 64.

I am rooting for: Neither? MSU isn’t exactly my favorite but I do not enjoy USC’s style either, sorry.

(3) Xavier (-12.5) vs. (14) Kennesaw State, 12:40 PM ET, TruTV

Barnburner! Maybe! This is KenPom’s #74 defense versus #119. Xavier will look to get out and push the pace wherever possible to build a possessions advantage, while Kennesaw’s best shot is to slow this game down. Kennesaw plays a motion offense with one true post and four shooters around him. They’re athletic and quite efficient from deep. If Xavier can’t get somewhat consistent stops, Kennesaw can absolutely hang and even win this game, but it will require Kennesaw to get stops of their own, which doesn’t seem tremendously likely.

Two things to watch for:

• Kennesaw’s foul count. Kennesaw doesn’t run extremely deep and they sit 291st in Defensive FT Rate, which could prove a problem against a Xavier team that has a pair of great foul-drawers in Souley Boum and Jack Nunge.

• Everything inside the arc. Both of these teams can shoot, but of greater importance is if either can stop the other at all at the rim. These are two excellent interior offenses and two bad interior defenses.

Prediction: This feels like a relatively classic high-seed vs. low-seed game: both teams do pretty similar stuff, which means the team who does it with more talent and speed wins. Xavier 83, Kennesaw State 67.

I am rooting for: Xavier because they’re my survivor pool pick. Don’t let me down!

(3) Baylor (-10.5) vs. (14) UC Santa Barbara, 1:30 PM ET, TNT

The hilariously terrible Baylor defense draws a UCSB offense that’s been excellent at scoring in the paint, which seems like a huge problem for a Baylor defense that is awful at stopping anyone breathing down low. On the other hand, UCSB seems ill-equipped to handle Baylor’s three-headed offensive attack, particularly when they funnel so much inside. That’s not great when playing a team with several slashers.

Two things to watch for:

• Can UCSB keep pace from deep? Weird to say because UCSB doesn’t shoot many threes in the first place, but they’re solid at hitting them and have three guys who are very good from deep. If they hit 7+ then it’s a contest.

• The boards. UCSB actually possesses a better eFG% than Baylor, which in theory means Baylor should have a few more attempts at offensive rebounds. It’s an elite OREB unit in Baylor against a really good DREB unit in UCSB; if UCSB somehow holds them to 28% or lower as a ballpark figure, they’re in business.

Prediction: This is a very inconsistent Baylor team that could have trouble here, but my best guess is that they eventually get it done. Baylor 74, UCSB 66.

I am rooting for: UCSB. Upsets! Though I am becoming worried about the possibility of Elite Eight Missouri.

(5) Saint Mary’s (-5) vs. (12) VCU, 2:00 PM ET, TBS

This will be a scrap-fest and the polar opposite approach of the Baylor/UCSB game. This is KenPom’s #10 defense versus #15, and when the projected score is 65-59 (per KP) you know you’re in for Charleston/San Diego State part 2. Saint Mary’s runs exclusively drop coverage and forces teams to shoot over the top of them, which isn’t VCU’s strength in general. On the other end, this is an elite turnover-forcing program in VCU taking on an SMC side that traditionally takes great care of the ball. Truly a first-to-50 game on its face.

Two things to watch for:

• Turnovers for Saint Mary’s. SMC's a perfect 16-0 when they commit single-digit turnovers, which, insane that they’ve done that 16 times. VCU’s forced double-digit turnovers in 32 of 34 games. What gives first?

• VCU’s ball movement. There’s many a VCU game I’ve watched where the ball just sort of sticks. Not in a “we’re bored” way but rather a “we genuinely do not know how to break this down” way.

Prediction: Pain. And a lot of missed shots. Worth noting that in 5/12 games where both teams have a top-25 defense, the 5-seed is 5-3. I guess I’d hang with the favorite? Saint Mary’s 56, VCU 49.

I am rooting for: A good game.

(2) Marquette (-10.5) vs. (15) Vermont, 2:45 PM ET, CBS

Marquette is a mega-vulnerable 2 seed, and you can envision some sort of a path to a second 15-over-2 upset here. Marquette’s awful rebounding numbers should more or less be a wash with how little Vermont attacks the offensive boards, while it’s two turnover-prevention offenses that don’t get to the line as well. It then comes down to who outshoots the other, unless Marquette is able to establish some sort of turnover/boards dominance, which is interesting because Vermont shot just as well as Marquette in season-long play.

Two things to watch for:

• Two-point efficiency. Both defenses are bad at protecting the rim. Both offenses are tremendous at scoring it inside. I would imagine the edge goes to the high-major here, but I thought that with Princeton as well.

• If Vermont can produce enough shots. Vermont’s Shot Volume is one of the lowest in the nation, which works against America East foes but has proven less ideal in a Tournament setting.

Prediction: Feels very much like one where Vermont hangs for a while but Marquette eventually motors away. Marquette 76, Vermont 63.

I am rooting for: A good game. Marquette fans are some of the kindest people on the entire Internet, while Vermont’s head coach John Becker is a great guy.