Game preview: Alabama/Arizona has potential to be the most entertaining battle of 2023
Hope you like points
You might have heard about a fun game being played tonight. It will be played at 11 PM Eastern, because as a country we have offended God, but still, it’s pretty fun. Look anywhere and you’ll find a good sell for this one. As of the time of writing, this is tied for the highest-rated game on Bart Torvik’s Thrill Index all season:
And it has the second-highest over/under of the entire season, per Evan Miyakawa.
Alabama/Arizona is not a matchup of the two best teams in the nation. Most can’t agree on if Alabama is even one of the 15 best teams in the nation, while Arizona sits at a consensus #3 behind Purdue and Houston. How is a game that’s functionally #15 at #3, per that same consensus, a plausible candidate for Game of the Year? Easy answer: points. Also, points.
As of the time of writing, the Vegas O/U for this game sat at 173.5, the highest single game over/under since a January 2021 game between The Citadel and Mercer. In terms of games between actual Big Six teams, it’s the highest-scoring projected game since NC State and North Carolina tangled in January 2019. On the surface, this has the potential to be the most explosive offensive game in five seasons, at least between two teams of national note.
A full in-depth preview of this game could easily be 5,000 words, but given the early-season nature and the idea of not taxing oneself, I’ve limited myself to identifying one specific area for both Alabama and Arizona to exploit when they’ve got the ball. Considering this is #1 vs. #6 in offense, both are gonna have plenty of options to explore, but I think one specific option for each could be the swing piece.
When Alabama has the ball
Well, first off, Arizona’s got a large task on their hands no matter what these guys do. Alabama has been the best offense by a mile thus far this season, regardless of which measurement you choose to use. Even just looking at their KenPom page from a surface level presents a super-powered offense with a lot of answers to anyone’s given questions.
That’s a scary, scary group. But for this game specifically, their best shot at breaking down a top-three Arizona defense is an obvious one: get Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada free via ball screens and dribble handoffs.
Sears is the superior member of the backcourt pair and is a quiet national POTY contender, but Estrada has adjusted well to the limelight of Big Six play thus far. Alongside Indiana State and Houston, they’ve statistically been the only starting backcourt in the nation to pair high efficiency (110+ ORtg) with high usage (23%+ Usage%).
Above all else, though, the Alabama offense is at its best when their pick-and-roll game is humming. The structure of the Alabama offense is built around paint touches, but by guards, not posts. It’s a deceptively simple offense: if we can get you downhill, the defense must make a decision: either I devote just one defender to this and deal with a 1-on-1 drive, or I devote a second resource and risk a kickout three to a team that currently has four starters shooting 37% or better from deep.
You can see the danger of this here against a top-15 Purdue defense. Unsurprisingly, Purdue plays almost exclusively drop coverage with Zach Edey at center, much like Arizona is going to do with Oumar Ballo. Here, Edey plays back, which is one thing, but the danger of Sears attacking the paint causes his defender to overcompensate, sinking well into the paint. Against a career 38% 3PT shooter who’s hitting 48% this year, that’s not a great idea.
Or here, against Creighton, who runs a similar drop scheme with Ryan Kalkbrenner as their center. This is like a modified dribble handoff, but you can see the danger that Estrada presents with the ball in his hands. He’s very crafty once he gets downhill, and this little stop/start move gets Kalkbrenner out of sorts. Estrada is a good finisher, and the threat he presents as a shooter and driver makes him a unique cover.
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