Game preview: The Space Bowl, featuring Indiana State and Alabama
Winner rides Space Mountain for free for life (statement pending approval by Disney Corp)
Thursday has arrived! Because I have a very busy day coming tomorrow (Tennessee and Wisconsin play each other, you’ve perhaps heard) and a very busy weekend (I’m running a half-marathon Saturday morning), this post about a game being played at 8 PM ET on a Friday is coming out on a Thursday. In this early-season wave, I’m trying to figure out what makes the most sense to cover.
I think there’s something interesting to be written about early-season scoring trends, which are showcasing a nine-year high (!) in offensive efficiency through three days. eFG% has increased, but more notable is the decrease in turnovers without a huge increase in free throws or fouls. So far, officials are currently calling about one more foul per game than they did in 2022-23. Is this a sign of fewer charge calls? Is that rule working? I’d rather wait and see, but it’s hard to argue with points being up nearly 2 PPG by team thus far.
The other sea change that seems like it’s in progress is that we might be hitting peak rim-and-three philosophy. At the time of writing, the median college basketball team was getting 80% of its shots either at the rim or from deep, per Hoop-Math. That won’t hold, but applying even a 4% drop would still put it at 76%, which would break last year’s record of 74.7%. The midrange game will never be fully eliminated, but it is de-emphasized more than ever before in basketball history.
Could these two things have something to do with one another? Could aiming for more efficient shots be responsible for more efficient basketball instead of the fouls? Could it be both? Based on last year’s data, and really based on 5+ years of researching the two coaches involved, we have a perfect game coming up tomorrow night that shows off Mathball at its highest forms.
A lot of Mathball gets lost in people thinking it’s just 3 > 2. That obscures the fact that both Indiana State and Alabama (Friday, 8 PM ET, ESPN+) hammer the rim like crazy. Indiana State got nearly 45% of its shots at the rim last season, the 20th-highest rate per Hoop-Math. Alabama only touched 40.5% (91st) but got 53% of their shots at the rim in their first game on Monday. It’s a battle of drives, kickouts, and dunks. Get your popcorn ready.
BELOW THE LINE ($): a relatively normal preview!