How stats and history would pick the 2024 women's NCAA Tournament
Sifting through centuries for moments of your own
Well, how about this: for the first time ever, I’m applying the same strategies that have worked well on the men’s side to see how we can do on the women’s. I’ve taken the season-long numbers from Her Hoop Stats, which is KenPom for NCAAW, and applied them to the field at large. What it has produced is some weird stuff - a 14-over-3, six different Round of 64 upsets, a 10 AND 12 seed in the Sweet Sixteen - and some relatively normal things, too.
To be honest, I’ve written so many words this week that I don’t feel like doing some giant preamble. I no longer care. Here’s the spreadsheet I used if you’d like to explore it. Also, this post is free, because to be 100% honest, I am not 100% confident that this is a great strategy thing like the men’s one has somewhat proven itself to be. This is an experiment that we’ll continue to tweak and play with going forward. I still think you should subscribe, though. I’m biased.
On with the show.
Albany 1
Round of 64
(1) South Carolina over (16) First Four. Doesn’t matter who. I would be surprised if it’s even this close?
(9) Michigan State over (8) North Carolina. MSU ranks as the better team, for one, by about 4 points on a neutral court. Michigan State also figures to have about a 3-4 advantage in turnover margin here against a UNC offense that’s looked awful for the last month.
(12) Florida Gulf Coast over (5) Oklahoma. At 49% to win, 12-seed FGCU is more like an 8/9 coin-flip than a true upset. Oklahoma’s W-L record has outpaced its metrics for the entire season. This is well worth a shot, particularly since FGCU actually rates five points better per 100 possessions at CBB Analytics. Oklahoma’s best shot here is to wreck FGCU on the boards, but FGCU could negate this by emphasizing their monster turnover advantage. It then comes down to shooting, where FGCU has the higher floor.
(4) Indiana over (13) Fairfield. Poor Fairfield got absolutely screwed here: a 30-win team that, if Wins Above Bubble existed for NCAAW, would have likely had them no worse than a top-35 team. A group like Fairfield deserved a 9 or 10 seed, not a 13. Instead, they may be a sacrificial lamb for Indiana, though it’s worth noting Indiana is one of the weaker high seeds in the field in terms of rebounding.
(6) Nebraska over (11) Texas A&M. Every single 6/11 game in this field is a serious risk for an upset, but here I like the favorite in a low-scoring, nasty game. Texas A&M’s offense is frankly awful to watch, but they create a lot of havoc on the defensive end. Nebraska is the reverse. This might be the exact same as the men’s version of this game?
(14) Eastern Washington over (3) Oregon State. Oregon State is an unusually weak 3-seed, a team that CBB Analytics rates 21st among the national field. They have a -4 turnover margin per 100, one of the worst in the nation. They make up for it with good rebounding, but for such a gaudy team, their paths to winning are alarmingly slim: they have to shoot well to win. Oregon State is a perfect 24-0 when they post an eFG% of 45% or better. They’re 0-7 when they don’t.
That’s a giant issue when their opponent, EWU, beats Oregon State in turnover margin by an astounding +10 per 100 possessions. 20 of EWU’s 34 games ended with the opponent shooting 45% or worse in eFG%. Quad 1 & 2 competition scared them little, too: a 1-4 record belies that just one opponent went >50% on eFG%. I really, really like my odds here.
(7) Ole Miss over (10) Marquette. Ole Miss is favored by a hair, but like 50.3%-49.7%. This is the exact “either choice is fine” game because I wouldn’t have either past Notre Dame.
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Kent State. Kent isn’t bad, but they’re going to be at a huge disadvantage on the perimeter here and I struggle to see where their points come from.
Round of 32
(1) South Carolina over (9) Michigan State. I think this South Carolina team isn’t perfect but I can’t envision a game in which Michigan State doesn’t get absolutely wrecked on the boards, which means MSU would have to shoot the lights out to pull off a stunner. Somehow, SC represents positive value in a bracket here too. Voter fatigue?
(12) FGCU over (4) Indiana. FGCU rates out just 3 points lesser than a 4-seed on a neutral court, which should really tell you something about how poorly the women’s bracket is seeded every year. (I’m serious. If you think it’s bad on the men’s side, do a deep dive into the women’s numbers and check out what they’ve gotta deal with literally every season. It’s atrocious.) By Shot Volume, adjusted for schedule, FGCU would expect to get up 7-8 more shot attempts in this game than Indiana. You’re relying on Indiana to then outshoot FGCU by 10% or thereabouts. Are you sure about that? I’m not.
(6) Nebraska over (14) Eastern Washington. As if South Carolina needed any help clearing their path out. Nebraska rates about 7 points better on a neutral and wouldn’t suffer from the same shot volume issues Oregon State is likely to.
(2) Notre Dame over (7) Ole Miss. Ole Miss is the one team here that can bang with Notre Dame on the boards for 40 minutes, and both defenses are terrific. The problem lies more with figuring out where Ole Miss gets buckets. They’re heavily reliant on free throws, which may be a problem against an ND team that rarely fouls. Can they score elsewhere? If not, I don’t see it.
Sweet Sixteen
(1) South Carolina over (12) FGCU. Cinderella run ends here. South Carolina would be favored by about 21 points, which says more about South Carolina than it does about FGCU being inferior.
(2) Notre Dame over (6) Nebraska. Notre Dame would be favored by eight or so, which is one thing. The other: Nebraska can absolutely hang with Notre Dame on the boards for 40 minutes. Can they outshoot Notre Dame? This is a Nebraska team likely to take 25+ threes against a Notre Dame group that works to erase threes as much as possible. This feels like a non-ideal matchup for Notre Dame but it’s hard to get fully to ‘upset’.
Elite Eight
(1) South Carolina over (2) Notre Dame. It’s astonishing that this is the case, but South Carolina represents plus value in a bracket pool. 76% of brackets have them in a Final Four, which is crazy high. But Her Hoop Stats has the odds at 81%, meaning you somehow get plus value into the Final Four with the best team in America.
Albany 2
Round of 64
(1) Iowa over (16) First Four. No comment. Go Caitlin go.
(8) West Virginia over (9) Princeton. This matchup is fantastic. This is the best turnover-forcing program in America (WVU) versus perhaps the best rebounding team in the nation not in South Carolina (Princeton). The numbers lean WVU by a hair.
(5) Colorado over (12) Drake. I loved Drake this year but what an awful matchup for them. Colorado is projected to have a +6 advantage in turnover margin, get more free throws, and tie on the boards. Drake would have to massively outshoot the Buffs to win. If they do, tip the hat. If not, well, you saw it coming.
(4) Kansas State over (13) Portland. I think Kansas State is a little undervalued, given that they spent four weeks of the season without best player Ayoka Lee (first team All-Big 12). More so, this is one that represents zero bracket value: KSU is 91% to win; 91% of brackets have them advancing.
(11) Middle Tennessee over (6) Louisville. These two are separated by all of 0.2 points on a neutral court, which makes me lean the 11’s direction. I do fear that Louisville is likely to own the shot volume advantage here, though. I reserve the right to change this.
(3) LSU over (14) Rice. One of the largest mismatches in the entire field, LSU will be a 22-point favorite over Rice. It’s more like a men’s 1/16 game than a 3/14.
(10) UNLV over (7) Creighton. UNLV grades out as five points better than the Bluejays on a neutral. They’ll have a huge advantage in Shot Volume. They also shoot better than Creighton game-to-game. This one feels obvious, so congrats to Creighton on the victory.
(2) UCLA over (15) Cal Baptist. Unlikely! But not as bizarre as you’d think. CBU went 28-3 this year and has a very good offense that rarely turns it over. The problem: UCLA projects to get six more offensive boards.
Round of 32
(1) Iowa over (8) West Virginia. Iowa is 91% likely to make the Sweet Sixteen, don’t overthink it.
(5) Colorado over (4) Kansas State. There is real value here on Colorado, but more so in not betting on Kansas State. 56% of brackets have them in the Sweet Sixteen; I have their ‘true’ odds as more like 50%. Take a stab with a good Colorado team and see what happens.
(3) LSU over (11) MTSU. I think LSU is tremendously undervalued thanks to their routinely terrible OOC slate and a few early-season losses diminishing what people think of them. The reality is that they’re going to have a Houston-like shot volume advantage in nearly every game they play in, particularly against an MTSU side that’s just okay on the boards. LSU could run up a 15+ point advantage in the paint.
(10) UNLV over (2) UCLA. BEST VALUE IN THE ENTIRE BRACKET. Seriously. UCLA is at 59% to make the Sweet Sixteen. 81% of brackets have them getting there. They’d have to be a legitimate top-6 team nationally to make that believable. UNLV, meanwhile, rates as the 10th-best team in the nation, per CBB Analytics. UCLA: 8th. This is more like a coin-flip, and I love the odds of a coin-flip.
Sweet Sixteen
(1) Iowa over (5) Colorado. Look, it’s fun, I get it, people want Iowa to lose. The value pick here is Colorado, after all. I just can’t see where said loss comes from this early? Iowa can negate Colorado’s shot volume advantage and has the obvious best player in the game. Feels like a bog-standard Iowa 12-point win.
(3) LSU over (10) UNLV. LSU doesn’t have as much value here as they do in other spots, but they would have a serious shot volume advantage (again) and there’s not a clear path to easy points for UNLV.
Elite Eight
(1) Iowa over (3) LSU. There is marginal bracket value in picking LSU here, who has a 20% shot to make the Final Four versus 17% of brackets picking them to do so. But purely as a matchup, I don’t think it would bode well for LSU. We’ll see.
Portland 3
Round of 64
(1) USC over (16) TAMU-Corpus Christi.
(9) Michigan over (8) Kansas. Michigan is a narrow favorite and has a huge advantage on the boards. Worth the shot.
(5) Baylor over (12) Vanderbilt/Columbia. Columbia projects as a tougher matchup, but Baylor is the best 5-seed in the field and has tremendous protection against bad shooting days with elite shot volume on both offense and defense.
(4) Virginia Tech over (13) Marshall. This should be one of the best games of the first round. Virginia Tech has a wobbly injury situation at the moment, with best and national top-5 player Elizabeth Kitley questionable. Still, even applying a demerit to their projections results in VT still being ~10 points better here. Obviously, they need Kitley to play and be good to go far, though.
(11) Auburn/Arizona over (6) Syracuse. This is a shockingly weak Syracuse team as a 6-seed. They’re 55th!!! in CBB Analytics’ ratings, which is stunningly low. They’re great on the offensive boards but awful on defense. Auburn rates as the tougher draw to my eyes, but either would be a pick for me.
(3) UConn over (14) Jackson State. UConn is a 26-point favorite here. No thanks.
(7) Duke over (10) Richmond. Duke is several points better and has a superior offense and defense. Not overthinking it.
(2) Ohio State over (15) Maine. This is the one 15-over-2 that I think could reasonably happen. Ohio State is middling on the boards; Maine is one of the best rebounding teams in the field. One cold day from OSU and a hot one from Maine could spell trouble. But I can’t fully get there, feels more like a close game than an upset.
Round of 32
(1) USC over (9) Michigan. This USC team is dramatically overrated thanks to the star power of JuJu Watkins, but Michigan (and 8-seed counterpart Kansas) are fairly weak 8/9 seeds. USC will get exploited at some point with an offense that can go dead cold, but it’s unlikely to be here.
(5) Baylor over (4) Virginia Tech. I want to pick VT because I love watching them, but Baylor is actually favored by a hair on a neutral and doesn’t have an injured star player.
(3) UConn over (11) Auburn/Arizona. UConn is going to end up being the best value pick in the entire field, for the record.
(7) Duke over (2) Ohio State. Duke is just a two-point dog here and can demolish Ohio State on the boards. This is a terribly weak OSU group in terms of interior defense, too, which could be really problematic in a game like this. I hate this matchup for the Bucks, who are really fun to watch.
Sweet Sixteen
(5) Baylor over (1) USC. Massive, massive value at play here. Baylor has a 17% shot at the Elite Eight; only 12% of brackets think they can get there. More notable are USC’s poor odds: at just 36% to make it, they’re tremendously overvalued by the public, of which 71% think USC gets to the Elite Eight. Bet against them.
(3) UConn over (7) Duke. And continue betting on UConn, who has a 77% shot at an Elite Eight bid. Somehow, only 55% of brackets have them there. UConn! Of all teams. It’s like Duke being a value pick in the men’s bracket.
Elite Eight
(3) UConn over (5) Baylor. Rarely, if ever, will you get opportunities to bet teams like UConn. A 3-seed thanks to injuries, they rate out as the second-strongest team in the country, per CBB Analytics. Her Hoop Stats is only slightly less rosy at #3. They’ve got a 64% shot at making the Final Four. Only 32% of brackets have them there. Take advantage while you can.
Portland 4
Round of 64
(1) Texas over (16) Drexel. Meh.
(8) Alabama over (9) Florida State. Alabama is at 72% to win this game; only 50% of people have them winning. Obvious, obvious plus play.
(5) Utah over (12) South Dakota State. Utah is 74% likely to win, so the value actually lies with SDSU, but Utah projects to have something like a +12 Shot Volume advantage here.
(4) Gonzaga over (13) UC Irvine. Gonzaga is 96% likely to win, not worth going over in great detail. I’ll pass.
(11) Green Bay over (6) Tennessee. This is another value play, even though I hate it. Green Bay has a 46% shot to win this game, per Her Hoop Stats’ numbers. Only 16% of brackets have picked them. You have to play the value game here, even though I’ll be homering out and taking Tennessee myself.
(3) NC State over (14) Chattanooga. The problem with the hopeful upset here: NC State has a massive rebounding advantage and rarely fouls, which are two thinks Chattanooga really needs to go their way to survive.
(10) Maryland over (7) Iowa State. I’m just taking the better team here. Nothing really novel about it.
(2) Stanford over (15) Norfolk State. 24-point favorites. This would be like a 1-in-every-100 games situation.
Round of 32
(1) Texas over (8) Alabama. Boring pick, but Texas is 89% likely to see the second weekend. 90% of brackets have them there. No real value on either side, so just take the higher seed.
(4) Gonzaga over (5) Utah. I really, really want this Utah team to make a deep run and repeat last year’s success, but they’re way too banged up right now and I’m not 100% certain I can trust them to make it happen. It’s sad, because at full strength they were a top-5 team.
(3) NC State over (11) Green Bay. There’s marginal value on either Tennessee or Green Bay here, but I don’t trust any of the four teams in this quadrant to go deep anyway. I’m doing the safe thing and betting on NCSU.
(2) Stanford over (10) Maryland. Stanford is 84% likely to make the Sweet Sixteen; somehow this represents plus value in the bracket pool, as 82% of brackets have them moving on. Take the Cardinal!
Sweet Sixteen
(1) Texas over (4) Gonzaga. The value play here is easily Gonzaga, who rates out well in the metrics and has a 28% shot to make it to the next round versus 14% of bracket picks. On average, though, three of this year’s four 1 seeds should make the Elite Eight. I’m playing the numbers and going with Texas.
(2) Stanford over (3) NC State. I have the Cardinal advancing again, as they do in 67% of simulations. 63% of brackets have them there, so once again, Stanford somehow represents plus value.
Elite Eight
(2) Stanford over (1) Texas. Stanford doesn’t rate out as a superior team to Texas, but at 36% to make the Final Four versus Texas’ 37%, they both have similar value, and it’s more likely that two 1 seeds make the Final Four than three. I have to ride with the averages here and see what happens.
FINAL FOUR
(1) South Carolina over (2) Stanford. The value mostly lies with Stanford, actually, but it’s not enough to sway me. South Carolina is 65% likely to be in the national title game; 66% of brackets have them there. You’re not really reinventing the wheel by saying they won’t get there, I guess.
(3) UConn over (1) Iowa. Unfortunately, this is where the best value continues to lie. UConn has a 37% shot of making the national title game. Only 9% of brackets have them there. Meanwhile, 37% of people in America have a South Carolina/Iowa title game. There’s a 25% shot that actually happens. The best value you can find is betting against one or the other to get there; Iowa, sadly, represents the less-optimal bet.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
(1) South Carolina over (3) UConn. And somehow, South Carolina - UNDEFEATED SOUTH CAROLINA, FOR GOD’S SAKE - represents plus value as a bracket pool pick. Only 39% of brackets have them winning it all. The numbers from Her Hoop Stats give them a 47% shot. I cannot believe I’m saying this, but for once, the obvious overwhelming favorite is the best pick in the field. Go…Gamecocks. I guess.