How stats and history would pick the 2024 NCAA Tournament
"I walked into your dagger for the last time" - Big Thief or Purdue?
PAST EDITIONS: 2021, 2022, 2023.
This year’s Tournament is an exercise in how much of the pre-Tournament BS you can stand. Thanks to the most chaotic conference tournament week in modern history, we have a truly bizarre set of teams that I talked about here yesterday. I’ve got the field at about 4.3 projected Round of 32 upsets and for the first time in a while, the numbers favor two or more 1 seeds to make the Final Four. After a few Tournaments on the more chaotic side, we’re trending back towards one of relative calm. As such: it’s time. Let’s get to pickin’.
For whenever this gets picked up by people who don’t normally read this website, many of these picks will be wrong. Even the very best brackets miss on an average of 13-15 picks out of 63 total a year. If I missed on 15 total picks, I would be beyond thrilled. I missed 21 last year; maybe that can get below 20 this year. Who knows. I look forward to seeing how it all unfolds.
As a reminder, here’s how all of this works: What this is is simply a game-by-game projection of the field of 68 based on a document I’ve put together since 2018. I’ve accumulated KenPom odds, based on pre-tournament data, from 2002 to present. (The spreadsheet is available upon request. It’s not private data by any means, it’s just so large that I cannot imagine any normal person asking for it.)
Lastly, for the first time, this post is paywalled. I’ll unlock it after the games begin, but I’m a little past the point of this either getting aggregated or people begging for me to make bracket picks for them. Guys, when I do a bracket I spend about 10 minutes on it and fart it out into the family group. I like watching the games. (Stephen A. Smith voice) BUT! If you find these helpful, I really think you should sign up. Our picks finished in the 98th-percentile in 2021 and 95th-percentile last year. Please do not ask about 2022.
The good news is that it’s just $18/year if you sign up below.
On with the show.