How Will's Vibes would pick the 2023 NCAA Tournament

"bracket" "science"

Hi! If you’ve come here via the stats and history-based picks, welcome. This post is immensely less serious. What it is is this: I look at the bracket in front of me and simply pick the team I think will win. I’m sure some of the stats knowledge and metrics interest will leak through, but I doubt it will be that similar to the stats picks. I fully expect recency bias to be a factor.

This is a one-take thing I’m doing at 8 PM on Monday, March 13, here we go.

ROUND OF 64

SOUTH REGION

(1) Alabama over (16) First Four. Don’t remember who they’re playing to be honest.

(9) West Virginia over (8) Maryland. Maryland is awful away from home. WVU very well could be but I am a Bob Boy.

(5) San Diego State over (12) Charleston. It’s no hate at all from me, promise. It just feels like Charleston is this year’s crowd favorite 12-over-5, along with VCU over Saint Mary’s, and it seems like those never really work out for the crowd.

(13) Furman over (4) Virginia. Well we’re 4-for-4 on stats and vibes agreeing. The Vibe here is that Furman simply scores more points than a UVA team that does not score it well.

(6) Creighton over (11) N.C. State. Creighton is very much a 6 seed to me. The metrics love them; I guess I can see why but well, I don’t know. Not for me.

(3) Baylor over (14) UCSB. Seems more like a game Baylor attempts to lose than one they actually do lose. Final score of 81-77 or something.

(10) Utah State over (7) Missouri. I mean Missouri literally cannot stop a soul. I appreciate Dennis Gates because his defensive philosophy is just “you are too stupid to not turn the ball over” but they’ve gone Flop Era when playing a real offense.

(2) Arizona over (15) Princeton. It is a basketball game.

EAST REGION

(1) Purdue over (16) First Four.

(9) Florida Atlantic over (8) Memphis. Too many people are picking Memphis and I am fascinated to see Dusty May toss up one final audition for a Big Six gig.

(5) Duke over (12) Oral Roberts. Would love the reverse but whenever I type out “Oral Roberts over Duke” it just looks weird.

(4) Tennessee over (13) Louisiana-Lafayette. Come on they’re not losing this one. Right. Right. Right?

(6) Kentucky over (11) Providence. Very annoying to say this but this feels like the exact time where Calipari reminds everyone he is Actually Good.

(14) Montana State over (3) Kansas State. First-year head coaches and the NCAA Tournament don’t mix well.

(7) Michigan State over (10) USC. If Andy Enfield beats Tom Izzo in a game of anything other than figuring out when the last QAnon post was it would be a real upset.

(2) Marquette over (15) Vermont. Marquette will not lose this one. Probably.

MIDWEST REGION

(1) Houston over (16) Northern Kentucky.

(8) Iowa over (9) Auburn. I have waited for months to pick against Auburn in March and here it is. Even though I picked them in the other post!

(12) Drake over (5) Miami. Too many people are too committed to making Miami A Thing because they had one fluke Elite Eight run after five years of being a Mid Program and Unserious. Don’t buy.

(13) Kent State over (4) Indiana. Not because Indiana is openly bad, just feels like the exact game Indiana would lose to a T.

(11) Mississippi State over (6) Iowa State. I guess you could pick Pitt here too but my logic is that Brexit Basketball always wins a game in March. Plus basically a worse version of this Jans system beat a better team in UConn last year.

(3) Xavier over (14) Kennesaw State. No real comment here. Go Owls.

(7) Texas A&M over (10) Penn State. First-time coaches, NCAA Tournament etc.

(2) Texas over (15) Colgate. If Colgate actually wins it will be deeply funny but it’s hard to picture. I guess they hit 15 threes?

WEST REGION

(1) Kansas over (16) Howard.

(8) Arkansas over (9) Illinois. This is a close game on paper but every time I think about it I can see a final score of Arkansas 68, Illinois 57 clear as day in my head. It is awesome watching this Illinois team because they hate each other and are putting flaming bags of poo in each other’s lockers.

(12) VCU over (5) Saint Mary’s. VCU’s defense is awesome and while I despise the wisdom of crowds, sometimes they get one right and it makes you that much angrier.

(4) UConn over (13) Iona. I cannot shake the feeling that Rick Pitino really is not that interested in this game. He’ll be the St. John’s coach by halftime.

(11) Arizona State or Nevada over (6) TCU. This is a tremendous region for Bad Vibes Basketball. TCU just lost their second-best player to, uh, possible racism, and they put up an all-time doo-doo loss to Northwestern State in non-conference play. They also cannot shoot a basketball. Sort of important for playing basketball.

(3) Gonzaga over (14) Grand Canyon. It is so annoying that Grand Canyon won the WAC. You could’ve had either of Sam Houston State or Utah Valley here but instead you get (section picked up by legally-wise pigeon who is flying away, there he goes).

(7) Northwestern over (10) Boise State. Can you picture Darren Rovell’s tweet yet? What about Stew Mandel’s? You know you want to!

(2) UCLA over (15) UNC Asheville. Drew Pember 21 points and 8 rebounds in 81-58 loss.

ROUND OF 32

SOUTH REGION

(9) West Virginia over (1) Alabama. This is all about Vibes. I know Alabama won the SEC Tournament against a group of Busters, Losers, and Jokers. I know that this is a stupid pick. But, sorry, I am doing it and I am committing. West Virginia’s brand of basketball, which I would best describe as driving Grave Digger over a school bus while puking a margarita out the window, is built nearly perfectly for this.

(5) San Diego State over (13) Furman. San Diego State has multiple bucket-getters and a baller coach in Brian Dutcher.

(3) Baylor over (6) Creighton. No notes here.

(2) Arizona over (10) Utah State. I want the reverse, but Arizona has Dudes.

EAST REGION

(1) Purdue over (9) Florida Atlantic. People are so out on Purdue that they feel like a great candidate to somehow have a last-second surge. Starts here.

(4) Tennessee over (5) Duke. It’s too perfect. Every year we have a Hot Team that comes in and everyone is like “well these guys are going to the Final Four.” And every year they are gone by the Sweet Sixteen at best.

(6) Kentucky over (14) Montana State.

(7) Michigan State over (2) Marquette. Marquette has real Team of Destiny Vibes. Does that overrule the Shaka Smart March Vibes?

MIDWEST REGION

(1) Houston over (8) Iowa. This has all the hallmarks of Houston almost losing, people freaking out for a few days, and then they bulldoze whoever their next two opponents are.

(13) Kent State over (12) Drake. The rationale here is that I watched Kent State almost beat Gonzaga and Houston, which is more impressive than Drake actually beating Mississippi State and Miami.

(11) Mississippi State over (3) Xavier. Yuck!

(2) Texas over (7) Texas A&M. Rodney Terry has a little Coach of Destiny vibe.

WEST REGION

(1) Kansas over (8) Arkansas. I think because we as a society cannot let Eric Musselman go to another Sweet Sixteen. The tweets would be so bad.

(4) UConn over (12) VCU. No comment.

(3) Gonzaga over (11) First Four. I guess.

(2) UCLA over (7) Northwestern. Deeply uninteresting basketball game. Come on.

SWEET SIXTEEN

(9) West Virginia over (5) San Diego State. You can sense it: the Mountain West, this close to its first ever Elite Eight. And then they blow it.

(2) Arizona over (3) Baylor. Arizona has Dudes and a somewhat functional defense. Baylor has Keyonte George and the worst defense in the Big 12.

(4) Tennessee over (1) Purdue. Just wait for the punchline.

(7) Michigan State over (6) Kentucky. Well: it has simply been too long since Izzo went far. Overdue, even though this MSU team is not an enjoyable viewing experience.

(1) Houston over (13) Kent State. Not as close this time.

(2) Texas over (11) Mississippi State. Close game that Texas wins and the announcers spend the entire final minute stumping for Rodney Terry to get the full-time gig.

(4) UConn over (1) Kansas. UConn is straight-up the better team and could win this by a lot given Kansas’s lack of size.

(3) Gonzaga over (2) UCLA. 2006 payback.

ELITE EIGHT

(2) Arizona over (9) West Virginia. Someone, legally, is required to win this very bad region.

(7) Michigan State over (4) Tennessee. Punchline!

(1) Houston over (2) Texas. Incredibly easy to sell: Houston returning to Houston for the Final Four, with Houstonian Jim Nantz on the call for his final Final Four.

(3) Gonzaga over (4) UConn. It’s a thing that makes a little too much sense. This mega-flawed Gonzaga team suddenly finding their stride late in the season and cruising past an on-paper better UConn team to the Final Four.

FINAL FOUR

(2) Arizona over (7) Michigan State. Every year for a decade now, one of the Final Four games (if not both) has been an on-paper dud. But seemingly every time out, the dud ends up being the better game while the killer game (again, on paper) kinda peters out early.

(1) Houston over (3) Gonzaga. In what’s essentially a home game, Houston gets more stops than Gonzaga can.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

(1) Houston over (2) Arizona. It feels too storybook, yes, but it also just feels like their year.