Looking ahead to how the NCAA Tournament sites may or may not sort themselves
Alternately, how Purdue fans should probably book an Indianapolis hotel if they haven't yet
As of today, we sit just under 40 days from Selection Sunday and four days from the Super Bowl, which is my way of saying you need to prep yourself for the rush of temporary college basketball fans. Perhaps you’re a football guy who only tunes in once the NFL is done. Perhaps you’re a fan of, I don’t know, Michigan! You’ve had a heck of a January and your men’s basketball team sucks big time. It’s all good to just now be tuning in. I think.
Anyway! I thought we’d use this beautiful February Wednesday (high of 58, sunny) to look over one key aspect of Bracket Season: the sites themselves. There are eight sub-regional sites and four regional sites. Those eight are for the Rounds of 64 and 32; the latter four are for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Most of you know this, but it’s worth a restatement.
As it stands, these are the top 32 teams in the Bracket Matrix. Barring some sort of undefeated run from the 9-11 seed range, your future top 16 seeds will be among this group. (I pondered going deeper with the screenshot to grab Michigan State, but I think that ship has presumably sailed.)
The good news is that this year, I don’t have to do the distance drawing from one school to future NCAA Tournament sites. My beloved Crashing the Dance is back and better than ever, with a full list of potential teams and locations listed here. Also, for the message board guy that whimpered about this last year, mileage is, indeed, a factor for site selection. From the official NCAA site:
There you go.
The point of this post is mostly to get a feel of who’s probably headed where. Some sites are very clear; others are clear as mud. The actual regionals themselves are about half-sorted, half-questionable. I’ve separated them into the first weekend and the second, with the knowledge that the third weekend (the Final Four in Phoenix) is just one where everyone is happy to be there and would play on Mars if it meant being in the hunt.
I’ve elected to do a free post for this one, but most of these going forward (including all actual bracket/tournament related stuff that requires original research)
Round of 64/32 Sites
These are broken down by Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday below. The only team locked into a specific day and regional is BYU, who has a religious exemption and does not play basketball games or any sporting event on a Sunday. (In the past, the NCAA has offered to change BYU’s region IF they made the Sweet Sixteen, but one would hope they avoid the issue in the first place.)
Anyway, here’s your sites.
Thursday, March 21/Saturday, March 23
Charlotte (host: Charlotte)
Omaha (host: Creighton)
Pittsburgh (host: Duquesne?)
Salt Lake City (host: Utah)
Friday, March 22/Sunday, March 24
Brooklyn (host: the entire A-10)
Indianapolis (host: Horizon League)
Memphis (host: Memphis)
Spokane (host: Idaho?????)
The hosts are included here, as for pretty obvious reasons you can’t give out true home games in the men’s NCAA Tournament. We’ll break these sites down one by one.
CHARLOTTE is within 300 miles of four schools in that top 32: Tennessee, North Carolina, Duke, and South Carolina. All four schools will list this as their closest available site, for what it’s worth. I think that one school is an absolute lock here, which is North Carolina. The other team is a bit more complicated.
Tennessee should be the obvious geographic pick here, but the number of alumni who live in Memphis versus Charlotte is nearly four times larger in the former. It would be an easier trip to Charlotte for Knoxville people, but for most everyone else it’s easier to get to Memphis and the crowd is likely to be heavy pro-UT. We’ll monitor this one going forward. I’m not sure Tennessee really cares one way or the other as both are convenient locales.
Duke likely steals this spot if they stay a top-4 seed and a couple other dominoes fall their way. If Tennessee takes what would otherwise be Alabama or Auburn’s spot in Memphis, they likely go to Charlotte. If Duke can get to the 3 line or higher, this is probably their spot to lose. South Carolina only comes into play for the same reason, which is unlikely.
OMAHA is within 300 miles of just two schools, Kansas and Iowa State. I think Kansas is probably a lock to head here as long as they stay a top-3 seed because there’s no other obvious option for them. Iowa State will need to stay on that line or higher to get this one.
The other team may not be ISU, however. An additional five schools on that above list are within 500 miles of Omaha, led by Marquette, Wisconsin, and Illinois. One of those three will head to Indianapolis with Purdue, but only one. Kansas already has one spot locked up here. Who of the remaining two there gets this if it’s not Iowa State?
PITTSBURGH is only within 300 miles for Dayton, and Dayton needs to stay a top-4 seed to plausibly take advantage there. If they can’t, this is wide-open. Ten schools are within 500 miles of this site, and the highest-ranked team with this as their closest site is Virginia, who won’t be a top-4 seed. No clue who ends up here; it probably goes to at least one of those Omaha/Indianapolis hopefuls that get left out of the mix, if not two.
SALT LAKE CITY is only near the Utah schools (BYU, Utah State, etc.), but I think Arizona is pretty much a lock to go here. This is the only location for the opening weekend within 1,000 miles of Arizona’s campus. It’s not optimal, I guess, but I think they would prefer this over anything else. They’re also the only Pac-12/West Coast team that is going to have a real shot at getting their preferred spot from the committee.
The other spot is almost certainly to be a wild card, unless San Diego State or BYU can graft themselves onto the 4 line or higher. Those are the only reasonable cases I can think of. Aside from that I would guess this ends up in the hands of someone on the 4-line who had nowhere else to go.
BROOKLYN has one spot totally locked up: UConn. It’s more or less a second home for their fanbase and they’re going to get to stay in the Northeast for their first two weekends as long as they stay on the 1 line.
The other spot is likely a toss-up. Duke actually has a reasonable case as a top-4 seed to go here, because Duke is a massive national brand and I assume the NCAA likes money and selling tickets. Beyond that, if Duke goes elsewhere this is a real question mark. Probably someone like Auburn or Illinois: a 3 or 4-seed that didn’t get its first two picks.
INDIANAPOLIS will have Purdue and one other team. There are so many teams within 400-500 miles of Indianapolis that could be here, so I won’t list them all. I would simply wager that the best chance is either Marquette or Wisconsin getting the final spot here. I’m guessing that one gets this and the other gets Omaha, unless Illinois makes a run in which case they’re an option here. But, well, you know Purdue’s gonna be here no matter what.
MEMPHIS will be the host site for Houston, as there’s no other suitable and reasonably close option for the Cougars. This is regardless of if they’re a 1 or 2 seed. They’ve got a ~90% shot if not higher to be on those top two lines, so this is all but locked up.
As mentioned earlier, the second spot may go a variety of directions. My best guess here is that the second spot goes to one of three SEC schools: Tennessee, Alabama, or Auburn. The decision-making here is probably dependent on a few things, one of which is that if Tennessee rises to a 1 seed I’m not sure that they want to put two 1 seeds at the same locale. Then again, they did it just last year with Houston and Alabama, so who knows. Non-Big 12 champions like Baylor or Iowa State could fall here, too.
SPOKANE is the single easiest one to sort, because there’s no sorting to be done. The only school that might be a 4 seed within 1,000 miles of Spokane is BYU. However, you can’t put BYU here, because they have a religious exemption against playing on Sundays, and this is a Friday/Sunday site. Therefore, this will go to two 4 seeds who have zero ties whatsoever to Spokane. Keep your eye on this site for some chaos.
The Actual Regional Sites (Sweet 16/Elite 8)
These are broken down by Thursday/Saturday and Friday/Sunday below.
Thursday, March 28/Saturday, March 30
East Regional: Boston (host: Boston College)
West Regional: Los Angeles (host: Pepperdine)
Friday, March 29/Sunday, March 31
South Regional: Dallas (host: Big 12)
Midwest Regional: Detroit (host: the various Detroit schools)
Rather than break these down one by one, let’s narrow the field a little. Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast has been at work for seven seasons. At this point of the year, February 7, there’s never been a team with a <10% chance to get a 1 seed who’s ended up there in mid-March. These are the ten schools still in contention for a 1 seed.
I don’t fully understand Iowa State being this high, but otherwise, every current 1 and 2 seed in the Matrix is represented here as well as a pair of 3 seeds. The point is that if you’re not already this high, you’re out.
Let’s go team-by-team for preferences instead of the regional breakdowns. I think that makes more sense, frankly. These are all only if the relevant teams end up a 1 seed, as a reminder. You don’t get any influence on your region as a 2-4.
PURDUE has the Midwest Regional in Detroit locked up as long as they stay a 1 seed and neither Marquette nor Tennessee join them on the 1 line. I only bring Tennessee into the fold because Detroit is technically their closest location, but they’re within a moderate flight of Dallas or Boston too.
HOUSTON is very likely to get the South Regional in Dallas as long as they’re a 1 seed and ahead of both Tennessee and Kansas. Those are the only two I can see who could reasonably take it from them. The Big 12 affiliation is of no meaning here, as Big 12 member schools can play at these sites.
UCONN has the East Regional locked down if they’re on the 1 line. No one else is an obvious candidate.
TENNESSEE is ultimately dependent on their other three 1 seeds; their first two picks would be either the Midwest Regional (the closest) or the South Regional (the one they’d likely have a stronger fan following at). But unless they’re firmly ahead of Purdue/Houston, it likely won’t happen. If Tennessee’s a 1 seed I would guess they get the West Regional barring one of those above three falling off the top line.
ARIZONA would get the West Regional as long as they’re on the 1 line, as there are no other obvious candidates.
IOWA STATE has no easy pick and it’s supremely unlikely they’d have a better resume than any of the top three unless they won out from here. Their preference would be either of the Midwest/South Regionals but they’d get whatever is left over, in all likelihood.
ALABAMA would want the South Regional first and foremost, but I think the only way they get it is by finishing 16-2 or better in SEC play and winning the conference outright.
MARQUETTE would want the Midwest Regional, obviously, but they aren’t beating Purdue’s resume even if they win out. The East and South regionals are roughly equidistant from Milwaukee, so either would make sense as a backup.
NORTH CAROLINA would take either the East or Midwest Regional if they could have their pick, but North Carolina is also a school that has at least some number of fans in pretty much every major American city thanks to being good at basketball for 50 years.
KANSAS would have the South Regional tops on their chart and everything else second, but to a lesser extent, the above North Carolina popularity factor also applies here.
Here’s a loose summary for the TL;DR crowd.
Purdue has mostly locked up a 1 seed and will play in Indianapolis, followed by Detroit in the Midwest Regional.
If a 1 seed, UConn has a locked-in path to Brooklyn for the first weekend and Boston for the second.
Kansas will go to Omaha.
Arizona will go to Salt Lake City.
North Carolina probably goes to Charlotte.
Tennessee either goes to Charlotte or Memphis.
Everything else: who knows!