NCAA Weekly, Vol. 10.1: Jump on a bandwagon, have a little fun
fun teams, fun times
One of the fun things Substack gives you is some interesting visuals behind your subscribers and/or readers. For example, I can let you know that 41% of the subscribers to this site are located in Tennessee, which makes sense, because this site is mostly about Tennessee basketball.
However, that leaves the other 59% - the majority - sort of in the dark. Plus, I can’t assume that everyone located in Tennessee is a Tennessee basketball obsessive. Plus plus, when I was going through some tough times post-COVID in terms of finding enjoyment in basketball, I realized that I needed a non-Tennessee team to follow. It’s a means of keeping sanity, but also a reminder that college basketball is supposed to be enjoyable even if the team you cover (alternately, if your dad went to Michigan and you watch that stuff, too) isn’t a thrill.
So: based on an exclusive formula I’ve created, which is basically two parts offense to one part defense, I’ve tried to spot teams I would recommend adopting as your second team as we come closer to March. There’s some added adjustments for teams that get more dunks, make more threes, block more shots, etc. There are also a few rules.
No one with a top-50 budget is allowed. I’m using Three Man Weave’s May 2022 data here. Look: if your team has a ton of money, I don’t have a problem with that. If your team plays in the Pac-12 and therefore is already behind the 8-ball, I do not have a problem with that. But we’re trying to find likable, fun underdogs who are either having a great season or are simply a fun time investment. Would I like to have UCLA or Houston or even Gonzaga on this list? Sure, but that’s not how it should work.
Every team selected must have at least a 25% chance (per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast) of making the NCAA Tournament. Because of how single-bid leagues work and because of the chaos still to come this year, I moved this down from 50%, but I wanted people to find teams that at least have a good shot at making the field of 68. Like, sure, Belmont could get in, and they would’ve qualified on a different version of this list, but at 14% to make it per Torvik, it’s just unlikely they’ll be there.
No Final Fours in the last decade, no championships in the last two decades. I mean, what fun would it be if you’re just rooting for Kansas to repeat? Or for North Carolina to make their tenth Final Four since 1997? Boring! Let’s get some new blood in there.
The following list is in no order. I considered ranking them, but I think all ten teams have relatively equal cases for your temporary fandom. Also, here’s the three that just missed the cut.
Honorable Mentions
Creighton (92.8% chance of making the field, projected seed anywhere from 6-11). The Bluejays are 52nd in budget, which places them directly on the cutline. This is the rare .600 win percentage team that’s 12th in KenPom; they play more like a 3 seed than the 8 seed I presume they’ll be getting. Lots of threes, lots of easy twos, scored 90 on Arkansas.
Florida Atlantic (96.1%, projected seed 8-9). This was the hardest cut. FAU’s worthy of bandwagoning at any point, but I simply found the ten on the list to fit my personal viewpoint of what I like in college hoops a little bit more. Still a really fun team that I hope gets better seeding than what they’ll likely end up with, which is an 8 or 9 seed.
Furman (27%, projected seed 13-14). I mentioned Furman in preseason as the hipster’s pick for a fun basketball offense this year. They’ve obliged in staying under the radar thanks to a pair of awful losses to High Point and Western Carolina. Still, if they can sneak in the field as a 13/14 seed, they’re so good at shooting that they’re a legitimate dangerous draw.
Now, for the actual top ten.
The Bandwagon Award of 2022-23 Nominees
Colgate (58.3%, projected seed 14). Alphabetically first up might be our strongest case of all, assuming they win the Patriot League. Colgate ranks #1 in eFG%, #5 in 3PT%, #9 in 2PT%, and rarely if ever commits unforced turnovers. Do they play defense? Of course they don’t, but on the right night, as in mid-November against Syracuse, they can shoot the lights out against Quadrant 1 competition. It’s basically the same team that nearly knocked off 3-seed Wisconsin last March.
Cornell (25.9%, projected seed 13). Yes, an Ivy League team you can root for without feeling sick to your stomach. This is Extreme Colgate: 21st in offense, 279th in defense. 3rd in offensive eFG%, 336th (!) in defensive. 4th in offensive 2PT%, 355th in defensive. Oh, and they play at the sixth-fastest offensive pace in America. This is the same team that dropped an insane 107-105 regulation game at Miami a month ago. The problem is that they’re set up perfectly to have a short-lived Tournament run that ends in an 86-77 loss to a 4 seed. Fun for about 36 minutes on a Thursday night, though.
Iowa State (100%, projected seed 2-4). I think this is the highest-rated KenPom team that doesn’t have a top-50 budget. Also, they and Tennessee make defense genuinely very fun to watch. Iowa State plays defense like their hair is on fire and someone is going to kill them if they don’t get a stop right this second. Also, maybe surprisingly, this is a solid shooting team that gets a lot of dunks. Less surprisingly, they produce a ton of havoc plays on defense. Whereas Tennessee makes me think of the 2018-19 Texas Tech team that made the final, ISU reminds me of the one before that, which popped onto the scene with an Elite Eight run in which they simply kept crushing opposing offenses.
Marshall (34.1%, projected seed 12). Did you know that 75-year-old Dan D’Antoni is still Marshall’s coach? Or that Dan D’Antoni is 75 years old? Both are true. Anyway, I love watching these guys. They’re good offensively, but they block a ton of shots on D, get a lot of steals, and crash the boards in a very fun way. They’re also #5 in America in dunks, which I hear that a lot of people really like. Also exciting: of their four most similar tournament comparisons, three (2019 Murray State, 2018 Buffalo, 2013 Mississippi) won a Tournament game. It’s kind of like getting Marquette at a Five Below.
New Mexico (98.5%, projected seed 6-8). The thing that kept me going last year was Mountain West basketball, specifically Colorado State and Wyoming. Those two overachieved, played delightful offensive styles, and overall had extremely charming personalities defined by great home crowds. You’ll always have your pick within the MWC, but my pick this year is New Mexico. The Lobos rank in the top 40 in both offense and defense on Torvik. They don’t take many threes - a bummer! - but they have a lot of verticality and have Jamal Mashburn’s kid leading the offense. The Pit is an incredible home venue. Don’t expect much in March, because the MWC is far and away the biggest underachiever. But: March is a while away. Have some fun first.
Oral Roberts (63.8%, projected seed 12-13). If forced to rank these ten teams, Oral Roberts probably has the strongest case for #1. You can watch Max Abmas tear up every opponent one final time. You can see Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover, who is a 7’5” string bean, hit three after three. You can watch the 17th-best offense, which ranks 8th in eFG%, 9th in TO%, 22nd in 3PT%, and 28th in 2PT%. You can observe a defense that blocks more twos than all but 20 teams in America. And, lastly, you can check out a team that has a 22% chance of going undefeated in conference play. I absolutely love these guys.
Saint Mary’s (CA) (100%, projected seed 4-6). Similar to Iowa State, just a delightful defense to watch. Saint Mary’s has completely destroyed ball-screen offenses all season long, which just so happens to be the most popular play type come March. I think they’re going to have a legitimately very good shot to get to the second weekend if not further.
Utah State (32.1%, projected seed 11). Utah State unfortunately seems like they’re headed for the First Four if they get in, which is a shame because this was one of the better stories of the first two months of the season. Still, this is the best three-point shooting team in America (40.9%) and they’re due for massive regression to the mean on defense. They’ve got seven wins over Top 100 competition and are extremely hard to defend. Another great Mountain West team to watch; their home court advantage is awesome when they’re playing a strong opponent. Check out the New Mexico game on February 1.
Xavier (100%, projected seed 4). Recommending a Sean Miller team is not something I like doing, but this is also a very different Sean Miller team. They play fast; they’re tremendous three-point shooters; they attack the rim like crazy. It’s also a very experienced roster, which bodes well for potential March success. I would be a little surprised if they don’t get to the Sweet Sixteen, draw pending.
Youngstown State (27.1%, projected seed 14). This is every media member’s favorite mid-major this year. I don’t blame them. Mike Miller of Field of 68 interviewed head coach Jerrod Calhoun recently and I recommend reading it. The short of it: #28 offense, #300 defense, seemingly top 10 in every ‘fun’ offensive category. They’re a delight.
Thanks for this. As someone who writes about Kentucky and Louisville basketball, I feel like this was written specifically for me this season.
I am noting that I read from one of the drab gray states. I suspect I may be the only one, which is why it's drab and gray.