NCAA Weekly, Vol. 12.1: Finding the teams that match previous over/underperformers in March
or why it might be time to Consider Marshall
Happy Non-Freaks Remembering College Basketball Exists Day! Look: while you’ve been off on your whole “NFL” thing for months, people like me and the freaks have been cooking up some serious content. The good stuff. The scary stuff. The “here’s who you DON’T want to see in March” stuff. (Not really.) The…I don’t know, something that gets across that I am probably a good bit too obsessed with this stuff.
This is the time of year where a lot of people who aren’t in the content mines of it every day remember college hoops is a thing. That’s fine in some aspect, because this is sort of a niche sport in the grand scheme of things. However: the non-freaks don’t know about all of the delightful tools out there to see who might be over/undervalued as we head closer to March.
One of these is Bart Torvik’s amazing profile comparison tool, which allows you to see how a team in 2023 might be similar to teams in seasons past. Torvik’s database goes back to 2008, which means we have 14 Tournaments to draw from. Some of the results you’ll see here are unsurprising; some came as giant shockers. If you’d like to mix and match with what I’ve found, these are the weights I used:
So: on we go. I’ve listed a bunch of different data, such as the average wins of the ten most similar teams, the ceiling/floor for those ten, and the closest comparison to the 2023 version of that team available on Torvik. Do I think this actually means all that much? Likely not, but it’s a fun exercise that found some fascinating data.
The likely multi-bid conferences
Seeing as four conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, SEC) look likely to be responsible for nearly half of the eventual field, I think it’s best to simply include everyone who at least looks >50% to get a second team in the field.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 7
Expected champion: Virginia (29% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool:
Virginia, 1.8 (ceiling national runner-up, floor Round of 32, 5/10 Sweet Sixteen or further)
Duke, 1.3 (ceiling Final Four, floor Round of 64, 4/10 S16+)
North Carolina State, 1.3 (ceiling Final Four, floor Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
North Carolina, 1.1 (ceiling Sweet Sixteen, floor Round of 64, 4/10 S16+)
Miami FL, 0.9 (ceiling Elite Eight, floor Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
Virginia Tech, 0.8 (ceiling Sweet Sixteen, floor Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
Clemson, 0.5 (ceiling Sweet Sixteen, floor Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
Pittsburgh, 0.4 (ceiling Round of 32, floor Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
The ACC, minus Miami, mostly went in order of its best teams, but the ceilings and floors for each are deeply fascinating. All of the top five had at least three of their ten comparisons make the Sweet Sixteen or go further, and Virginia is of special note because they’re one of just six teams in the entire NCAA whose similar teams all at least made the Round of 32. The problem, if there is one, is that just one of Virginia’s comps - 2017-18 Michigan - went beyond the Sweet Sixteen.
Of the conferences observed, the ACC overperformed its future expected NCAAT wins by the most, which frankly makes sense given all the talent they have. Duke has been scatterbrained but is loaded with five-stars. NC State looks dangerous. UNC is technically the same team that was preseason #1. Miami and Virginia Tech both graded out quite well (particularly VT), considering their expected seeds. This genuinely is the 7th-best conference this year, but it feels likely that they produce multiple Sweet Sixteen teams somehow.
Most common teams for each (within 2 seed lines of current Bracket Matrix seed): Virginia = 2008 Washington State (Sweet 16); Miami = 2010 California (Round of 32); Duke = 2019 Maryland (Round of 32); NC State = 2008 West Virginia (Sweet 16); UNC = 2016 Saint Joseph’s (Round of 32); Pittsburgh = 2008 Temple (Round of 64); Virginia Tech = 2009 Cal (Round of 64); Clemson = 2014 Arizona State (Round of 64)
AAC
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 2
Expected champion: Houston (64% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool:
Houston, 3.5 (Champions 3x/Round of 32, 7/10 S16+)
Memphis, 1.3 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 4/10 S16+)
It’s weird to put a two-team conference up this early, but it falls in line (roughly, sorry) alphabetically. Plus, the #1 team in the conference appears to be the best team in America. Houston was the only team on this list to have multiple past champions as comparable teams, and their average wins suggest that of a team that really should expect to make the Final Four…which just so happens to be in Houston. Memphis, by Torvik’s actual forward-looking numbers, would only be expected to win about 0.6 games in March. However, the teams that compare closest to Memphis - 2018 Florida State (Elite Eight), 2010 Washington (Sweet Sixteen), even 2017 Arkansas (Round of 32) - all had serious success as a lower seed in the NCAA Tournament. I’d keep an eye on these guys if they get in.
Most common teams for each: Houston = 2021 Houston (Final Four); Memphis = 2018 Florida State (Elite Eight)
Big East
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 5
Expected champion: Connecticut (25% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
Connecticut, 2 (Final Four/Round of 64, 5/10 S16+)
Creighton, 1.4 (Final Four/Round of 64, 5/10 S16+)
Xavier, 1.3 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 6/10 S16+)
Marquette, 1.1 (Final Four/Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
Seton Hall, 0.5 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Providence, 0.4 (Round of 32/Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
The Big East Conference Tournament will be wide open. The top four teams here all have between a 15-25% chance of winning it, and all grade out as roughly equal on your average metrics system. UConn and Creighton were the source of an article I wrote this weekend on when to peak at the right time, but despite a similar look on paper UConn appears to be the significantly stronger March team. Xavier and Marquette, both of whom have bad defenses, look like fun teams that won’t go super far. Neither Seton Hall nor Providence have comparisons with much March success, but frankly it’s a success for either to get in the field this season.
Most common teams: UConn = 2017 Louisville (Round of 32); Creighton = 2017 Purdue (Sweet Sixteen); Xavier = 2018 TCU (Round of 64); Marquette = 2009 UCLA (Round of 32); Seton Hall = 2009 Minnesota (Round of 64); Providence = 2008 Indiana (Round of 64)
Big Ten
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 8
Expected champion: Purdue (37% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
Purdue, 2.6 (Final Four/Round of 32, 7/10 S16+)
Indiana, 1.3 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 5/10 S16+)
Rutgers, 1.1 (Final Four/Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
Michigan, 0.9 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 4/10 S16+)
Ohio State, 0.9 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
Iowa, 0.9 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
Illinois, 0.8 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Northwestern, 0.7 (Round of 32/Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
Penn State, 0.6 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Michigan State, 0.6 (Round of 32/Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
Maryland, 0.5 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Wisconsin, 0.5 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
This is basically as expected, where Purdue is easily the best team the Big Ten has to offer this year and should go further than anyone else. They’re one of just six teams I found whose floor is the Round of 32, which to me suggests they’re going to be pretty safe early on. The rest of this list is the interesting part. Both Indiana and Rutgers are frisky yet flawed, with Indiana having a better chance of March success, but the next two teams are unlikely to be in the field. Michigan and Ohio State both look like teams that, if they can win the Big Ten conference tournament, could do legitimate damage in March. Also of note: Illinois, who fittingly appears to have a high ceiling and a very low floor.
Most common teams: Purdue = 2011 Pittsburgh (Round of 32) (sorry!!!); Indiana = 2010 Georgetown (Round of 64); Rutgers = 2014 Cincinnati (Round of 64); Michigan = 2015 UCLA (Sweet Sixteen); Ohio State = 2010 Florida (Round of 64); Iowa = 2018 Nevada (Sweet Sixteen); Illinois = 2013 Memphis (Round of 32); Northwestern = 2016 Providence (Round of 32); Penn State = 2022 Notre Dame (Round of 32); Michigan State = 2016 UConn (Round of 32); Maryland = 2011 George Mason (Round of 32); Wisconsin = 2021 Wisconsin (lol) (Round of 32)
Big 12
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 8
Expected champion: Texas (18% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
Texas, 2.8 (Champions/Round of 32, 8/10 S16+)
Kansas State, 2.1 (Final Four/Round of 32, 6/10 S16+)
Kansas, 1.7 (Final Four/Round of 32, 3/10 S16+)
Baylor, 1.6 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 5/10 S16+)
TCU, 1.3 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 3/10 S16+)
Iowa State, 1.2 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 4/10 S16+)
West Virginia, 0.6 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Oklahoma State, 0.2 (Round of 32/Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
Hey, so remember the stat I’ve mentioned twice already about the six teams whose floor was at least the Round of 32? Three of them are in the Big 12, which is perhaps the most appropriate thing imaginable for this season. Texas ranks second among all teams in average wins among their top ten comparisons and were one of only three teams (UCLA, Houston) to actually have a previous champion among their comparables. Kansas State should be expected to get to the Sweet Sixteen, which is insane to think about given preseason expectations.
The rest of the conference is also interesting. 3-6 here all have roughly equal outcomes, but with different ways of getting there. Kansas should win at least one game, but the fact their ten comparisons went 3-7 in the Round of 32 is pretty alarming. Baylor got to the second weekend half the time, but rarely any further than the Sweet Sixteen. Same for TCU and Iowa State, who both have higher floors but didn’t offer a ton in terms of ceiling. Neither of the bottom two are much worth discussing, though it would be a delight if West Virginia made one last run with Huggins. The Big 12 is going to have insane expectations to live up to in the Big Dance, but odds are at least a couple of these teams do so.
Most common teams: Texas = 2009 Missouri (Elite Eight); Kansas State = 2011 Kansas State (Round of 32); Kansas = 2022 Tennessee (Round of 32); Baylor = 2016 Oregon (Elite Eight); TCU = 2017 Michigan (Sweet Sixteen); Iowa State = 2018 Texas Tech (Elite Eight); West Virginia = 2018 Seton Hall (Round of 32); Oklahoma State = 2010 Florida State (Round of 64)
Mountain West
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 4
Expected champion: San Diego State (39% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
San Diego State, 1.4 (Final Four/Round of 64, 2 S16+)
Nevada, 1 (national runner-up/Round of 64, 2 S16+)
Utah State, 0.6 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 2 S16+)
New Mexico, 0.4 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1 S16+)
Boise State, 0.3 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1 S16+)
This is a great conference, one I love deeply, that nonetheless rates out as the largest underperformer in March by miles over the last 20 years. The Mountain West has won an astounding 21 games fewer than expected from its seeding since 2002, per Torvik; the next closest conference is the Big East at -9. I think there’s something real in chalking this up to the altitude advantage these teams (minus SDSU, obviously) enjoy at home versus away from home. Or maybe the MWC is just really good at hacking KenPom.
The best team and the best March team are the same, it seems. San Diego State actually has two Final Four comparisons, though neither (2009 Villanova, who’s extremely close statistically, and 2013 Wichita State) were at the seed line SDSU will likely be at. Nevada offers some fringe similarities to 2011 Butler, but only one other comparison got out of the first weekend. I’d love to live in a world where the Mountain West plants two or more teams in the Sweet Sixteen, which they haven’t done since 2011. I just need to see it to believe it.
Most common teams: San Diego State = 2009 Villanova (Final Four); Nevada = 2021 Virginia Tech (Round of 64); Utah State = 2017 Nevada (Round of 64); New Mexico = 2014 BYU (Round of 64); Boise State = 2016 Dayton (Round of 64)
Pacific 12
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 3
Expected champion: UCLA (46% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
UCLA, 1.9 (Champions/Round of 64, 5/10 S16+)
Arizona, 1.8 (Elite Eight/Round of 32, 5/10 S16+)
Oregon, 0.8 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
USC, 0.8 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
Utah, 0.3 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Arizona State, 0.2 (Round of 32/Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
This conference largely stinks, but they have two legitimate top-12 teams at the top that are serious Final Four threats. UCLA and Arizona pace the conference and have similar outlooks, but with completely different ceilings and floors. UCLA compares favorably to 2013 Louisville (champion)…but two of their five most similar comps lost in the second round. Arizona offers a better floor but a lower ceiling, as everyone at least won one game but went 5-5 in the Round of 32.
Most common teams: UCLA = 2022 Tennessee (Round of 32); Arizona = 2022 Arizona (Sweet Sixteen); Oregon = 2014 Xavier (First Four); USC = 2019 Seton Hall (Round of 64); Utah = 2011 Georgia (Round of 64); Arizona State = also 2019 Seton Hall (Round of 64)
Southeastern
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 6
Expected champion: Alabama (36% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
Alabama, 2.1 (national runner-up/Round of 64, 7/10 S16+)
Tennessee, 2.1 (national runner-up/Round of 64, 6/10 S16+)
Texas A&M, 1.1 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
Auburn, 1 (Final Four/Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
Arkansas, 0.8 (Elite Eight/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Missouri, 0.5 (Final Four/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Mississippi State, 0.5 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 2/10 S16+)
Kentucky, 0.4 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 1/10 S16+)
Florida, 0.3 (Round of 32/Round of 64, 0/10 S16+)
Well, this will make no one happy. Alabama and Tennessee - two teams who appear to be heading in very opposite directions - offer basically the exact same outlook for the NCAA Tournament. Both had one comparison make the national title game (2008 Memphis for Alabama, 2019 Texas Tech for Tennessee). Both also had multiple first-weekend bombouts among their most similar teams (2015 Kansas for Alabama, 2018 Cincinnati for Tennessee). But: as is consistent in every metric, these are the two best teams in the conference by a mile for March purposes. Of course, if you’re a Tennessee fan, you’ll be tempted to add a one-win discount to that Tennessee number. (shrug)
The rest of the conference is like a laundry list of March fliers. Texas A&M and strangely Auburn offer the best outlooks, but Mississippi State (First Four Out as it stands) has a wonderful comparison in 2018 Syracuse (Sweet Sixteen) among their top 10. The upside for Kentucky, meanwhile, appears to be 2015 UCLA (Sweet Sixteen).
Most common teams: Alabama = 2022 Arizona (Sweet Sixteen); Tennessee = 2018 Cincinnati (Round of 32); Texas A&M = 2013 Minnesota (Round of 32); Auburn = 2011 Tennessee (alarming!) (Round of 64); Arkansas = 2013 Memphis (Round of 32); Missouri = 2017 Marquette (Round of 64); Mississippi State = 2015 San Diego State (Round of 32); Kentucky = 2016 Pittsburgh (Round of 64); Florida = 2014 Arizona State (Round of 64)
West Coast
Teams in current field, per Bracket Matrix: 2
Expected champion: Saint Mary’s (59% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Teams ranked by expected wins, per Torvik similarity tool (ceiling/floor in parentheses):
Saint Mary’s, 1.7 (national runner-up/Round of 64, 4 S16+)
Gonzaga, 0.7 (Sweet Sixteen/Round of 64, 2 S16+)
This one’s fascinating. Saint Mary’s has become the best team in the West Coast and has already beaten Gonzaga once. They’ve got a higher upside, one of the 3-5 best defenses in America, and a roster that seems very well built for March success. But…BUT…it’s Gonzaga, and you simply can’t quit the idea of them putting it all together just in time for a deeper-than-expected March run. What’s notable here is that they’ll just have two teams in the field barring a bid thief, but if SMC and Gonzaga achieved at or near the level of their most similar teams, you’d see both in the Sweet Sixteen.
Most common teams: Saint Mary’s = 2018 Michigan (national runner-up); Gonzaga = 2012 Indiana (Sweet Sixteen)
Likely single-bid conferences
These conferences won’t get quite as much words to go with them since it’s a likely one-bid league, but we’ll highlight the top team in each conference as well as the team with the most expected wins if it’s a different team.
America East
Expected champion: Vermont (64% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: UMass Lowell, 0.1 wins
Well, not much fun here, frankly. Of the AE’s top three teams, only UMass Lowell has a comparison (2012 Norfolk State, who pops up often) that won a game. Vermont is very good at making the Tournament and not very good at bringing home a W.
Most common teams: Vermont = 2019 Northeastern (Round of 64); UMass Lowell = a bunch of different 15/16 seeds
Atlantic Sun
Expected champion: Liberty (73% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Liberty, 0.6 wins
Liberty is the best team with the best odds to win a game, though a quick note that Eastern Kentucky actually has some solid comparisons, too. Liberty’s 10 most similar teams went 3-7 in the Round of 64, but all three were within the last five Tournaments, suggesting a profile that’s on a hot streak these days. (2018 Loyola Chicago was their ninth-most similar team.) EKU compares favorably to 2015 UAB, who shocked 3-seed Iowa State in the first round. Their 10 teams also went 3-7.
Most common teams: Liberty = 2017 Princeton (Round of 64); Eastern Kentucky = 2017 Kent State (Round of 64)
Atlantic 10
Expected champion: Dayton (36% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: VCU, 0.6 wins
None of these teams are particularly appetizing to watch, so I frankly am rooting for George Mason to win it, but whatever. Dayton and VCU are the top two, but whereas Dayton’s 10 teams went 2-8 in the first round, VCU’s went an impressive-ish 4-6 and two of them made the Sweet Sixteen. VCU’s profile of a team that forces a ton of turnovers/has an overall excellent defense/gets a ton of free throws makes sense as something that’s tough to deal with on a short turnaround.
Most common teams: VCU = 2012 Ohio (Sweet Sixteen); Dayton = 2012 Harvard (Round of 64); Saint Louis = 2019 Yale (Round of 64); Duquesne = 2021 UNC Greensboro (Round of 64)
Big Sky
Expected champion: Montana State (38% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Montana State, 0.1 wins
Very little to work with here, frankly. I am personally rooting for Eastern Washington because they are fun. HOWEVER: the only team on Montana State’s list that won a game is also their most similar team, 2016 Middle Tennessee. They’ve also got several others on the list who gave higher seeds trouble for 35+ minutes. EWU’s comps are unfortunately a lot of teams that left no real impression in March.
Most common teams: Montana State = 2016 Middle Tennessee (Round of 32); Eastern Washington = 2008 Cornell (Round of 64)
Big South
Expected champion: Radford (27% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Radford, 0.3 wins
The Big South is a mess where any of four teams could win both the regular season and conference tournament titles, but the best of them is Radford. None of the Big South’s teams had a comparison that made the second weekend, but Radford stood out because their teams won three Round of 64 games.
Most common teams: Radford = 2019 Abilene Christian (Round of 64); Gardner Webb = 2011 Indiana State (Round of 64); Longwood = 2019 Abilene Christian (Round of 64); UNC Asheville = 2012 Norfolk State (Round of 32)
Big West
Expected champion: UC Irvine (32% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Cal State Fullerton, 0.5 wins; UC Irvine, 0.4 wins
Well, normally I wouldn’t highlight both, but when your conference’s third-best team profiles as a potential Elite Eight shocker, might as well do it. Both UC Irvine and Cal State Fullerton have three comparisons that won a Round of 64 game; no one else in the conference has more than one. Both Irvine and Fullerton have strong defenses, but Irvine’s is more built on holding opponents to a very low 2PT% while Fullerton forces turnovers and hits threes, a deadly combo in a one-off tournament. Irvine has a win over Oregon and nearly beat SDSU, though, so I think they’re the better shot. Whoever wins this conference feels very likely to give a higher seed a scary 40-minute battle, even if they don’t win it outright.
Most common teams: UC Irvine = 2017 Bucknell (Round of 64); Cal State Fullerton = 2019 Bradley (Round of 64); UC Santa Barbara = 2021 UC Santa Barbara (Round of 64)
CAA
Expected champion: Charleston (46% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Charleston and Hofstra, 0.7 wins
Uh…well, not what I expected whatsoever. Both Charleston and Hofstra offer the following: a 5-5 record in the Round of 64; two Sweet Sixteen appearances; a laundry list of seed overperformances. Charleston’s made headlines all year as a Top 25 team that hammers the boards, takes a ton of threes, and plays fast, but Hofstra beat Charleston recently and is a tremendous shooting team. I’d trust Charleston more, but I’m paying attention to both down the stretch.
Most common teams: Charleston = 2015 Buffalo (Round of 64); Hofstra = 2013 La Salle (Sweet Sixteen); UNC Wilmington = 2010 Robert Morris (Round of 64)
Conference USA
Expected champion: Florida Atlantic (36% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: UAB, 0.9 wins
Look: we need a two-bid CUSA. Really, we need a 3-bid CUSA, but even I know that will not be allowed to happen. FAU looks like a team that can and should get in even with a conference tournament loss, which is a wild thing to say about FAU, and their comparisons (as well as North Texas) went 4-6 in the Round of 64 with one Sweet Sixteen run. BUT. The real winner needs to be UAB, which profiles absurdly strongly. The Blazers’ ten closest comparisons went 5-5 in the first round, with 2018 Florida State making the Elite Eight. Unfortunately, their closest comparison bowed out as a 12 seed in the Round of 64. Regardless, let’s get any two of these three teams in the field. The conference deserves it.
Most common teams: Florida Atlantic = 2011 George Mason (Round of 32); North Texas = 2021 North Texas (Round of 32); UAB = 2015 Buffalo (Round of 64)
Horizon League
Expected champion: Youngstown State (32% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Milwaukee, 0.3 wins
Well, putting Milwaukee #1 is a little of a misnomer, because their teams went 2-8 (one Sweet Sixteen run, 2013 FGCU) compared to everyone else either going 1-9 or 0-10. This is simply a fun conference of no real consequence.
Most common teams: Youngstown State = 2008 UMBC (Round of 64); Cleveland State = 2021 Cleveland State (Round of 64); Northern Kentucky = 2018 Radford (Round of 64); Milwaukee = 2022 Bryant (First Four)
Ivy League
Expected champion: Princeton (34% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Yale, 0.2 wins
Another fun conference of no real consequence, though the Ivy actually has good ball. I’m on record as stating I’m rooting for Cornell because they have the chance to lose an NCAA Tournament game 95-85, but Yale and Princeton have slightly better cases for March success.
Most common teams: Princeton = 2009 Cornell (Round of 64); Yale = 2011 Princeton (Round of 64); Cornell = 2013 Iona (Round of 64)
MAAC
Expected champion: Iona (56% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Iona, 0.7 wins
As far as I’m concerned Iona absolutely must win this conference. The only other team in the entire conference with even one Round of 64 win was Quinnipiac, which really pales in comparison to Iona having two Sweet Sixteen comps and a 5-5 record in the Round of 64. That’s very notable when you project as a 13 seed like Pitino and the fellas do. Also, you’re putting Rick Pitino in the field as a 13 seed. Have you pondered that? Have you thought about what you’re doing here?
Most common teams: Iona = 2016 UNC Wilmington (Round of 64); Quinnipiac = 2010 Oakland (Round of 64)
MAC
Expected champion: Kent State (34% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Kent State, 0.6 wins
Again, a league where our agenda must be met, regardless of what underhanded tactics it may take to accomplish. Kent State has a highly impressive profile for a potential 12 seed: top-40 defense, one of the best turnover margins in the sport, and a combined scoring margin of just -14 against three Quadrant 1 opponents. Their comparisons went 4-6 in the Round of 64, but two made the Sweet Sixteen. Only one other team in the MAC had even one comparison that won a game. Sorry, Toledo; it’s not you, it’s Kent.
Most common teams: Kent State = 2012 Ohio (Sweet Sixteen); Toledo = 2013 Iona (Round of 64)
MEAC
Expected champion: Norfolk State (32% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: NC Central and Howard, 0.1 wins
No real commentary here; this is a wide-open conference with no great history of March Madness success. The MEAC is actually significantly better than usual this year, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Norfolk State or Howard put a mini-scare into a 1 seed. I’ll cop to rooting for Howard as it’s been 31 years since their last bid and I’m somehow still on a mailing list their AD signed me up for in 2020. (Special note here that all of NC Central’s top three comps put a legitimate scare into a 1/2 seed.)
Most common teams: Norfolk State = 2019 Fairleigh Dickinson (Round of 64); NC Central = 2013 Western Kentucky (Round of 64); Howard = 2022 Wright State (Round of 64)
Missouri Valley
Expected champion: Drake (32% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Bradley, 0.5 wins
Again, we must force Arch Madness’ hands here: Bradley or Belmont must win this conference tournament. Both feature comparisons who went 3-7 in the first round (no one else better than 2-8, while Drake is a perfect 0-10). Bradley’s difference pushing them ahead is having 2014 Dayton - an Elite Eight team! - as one of their ten. (I will also accept Indiana State, coached by Josh Schertz, a good guy.)
Most common teams: Drake = 2015 Boise State (First Four); Bradley = 2015 Valparaiso (Round of 64); Indiana State = 2021 Eastern Washington (Round of 64); Belmont = 2017 Iona (Round of 64)
NEC
Expected champion: Fairleigh Dickinson (37% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: …none
Yep. Not a single team had even one Round of 64 win. Fitting, as this conference has zero NCAA Tournament wins period since they came into being. Saint Francis (PA) has the best player in the league in Josh Cohen, so I’m kind of hoping they win the lottery for a First Four appearance.
Most common teams: trust me that the list here is entirely 16 seeds who lost by 20-30 points
Ohio Valley
Expected champion: Morehead State (38% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: SIU Edwardsville, Tennessee-Martin, and Tennessee Tech, 0.1 wins
The Ohio Valley conference tournament used to be a really awesome event. They held it at a coliseum in Nashville that’s as old as it gets, Belmont and Murray State would always play for the title, and it was always a fun show. Now, you get to see who comes out alive to be a 16 seed. Not quite the same. The good news is that all three of the teams with a chance to win a game (per the comps) either haven’t made it ever or haven’t made it in multiple decades, so you can feel free to root for them without shame.
Most common teams: SIU Edwardsville = 2012 Norfolk State (Round of 32); everyone else Round of 64
Patriot League
Expected champion: Colgate (64% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Navy, 0.1 wins
Colgate keeps making the Tournament and keeps coming up short of a program-changing win, which is fine as that’s not required. But I wouldn’t blame anyone for Colgate Exhaustion. If this is you, then Navy at least compares somewhat to 2018 UMBC. But…just root for Colgate. About half of their top comparisons are 13-14 seeds that lost by single digits in the first round, including 2022 entries Colgate and South Dakota State. Maybe this is the year.
Most common teams: Colgate = 2022 Colgate (Round of 64); Navy = 2017 Jacksonville State (Round of 64)
Southern
Expected champion: Furman (42% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Furman, 0.3 wins
It is time for you to understand the Furman Agenda with me. Here is my case: they are an insanely efficient offense that takes a billion threes, gets a bunch of easy twos, and never turns the ball over. Has this resulted in a single quality win? No. Has it resulted in lots of entertainment? Absolutely. UNC Greensboro - and no disrespect meant here - is the polar opposite: all defense, no offense. They almost beat Arkansas, though.
Most common teams: Furman = 2010 Sam Houston State (Round of 64); UNCG = 2008 Oral Roberts (Round of 64)
Southland
Expected champion: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (39% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: none
Another conference that produced zero wins among its top-flight teams, unfortunately. TAMU-CC is the best team in the league, but Nicholls play a chaotic style of ball that would be fun to watch in the Tournament.
Most common teams: same as the NEC
SWAC
Expected champion: Grambling State (46% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Grambling State, 0.3 wins
Well, 0.3 wins is misleading, but hey. Grambling offers just one comparison that won a Tournament game but it’s a heater: 2022 Saint Peter’s, who was the first 15 seed to make the Elite Eight. I highly doubt Grambling could or would do the same, but they’re the best team in this conference with a legitimately solid defense with multiple wins over Big Six teams (Colorado and Vandy). Plus, they’ve never made a D-1 NCAA Tournament, which makes them incredibly easy to root for. Go Tigers.
Most common team: Grambling State = 2021 Iona (Round of 64)
Summit League
Expected champion: Oral Roberts (65% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Oral Roberts, 0.5 wins
Oral Roberts are so far ahead of everyone else in this conference that I’m not sure anyone else is worth mentioning. Their comparisons went 3-7 in the Round of 64 but 2-1 in the Round of 32, suggesting some pretty real overall strength. Their top five comps: 2-3 in the first round with an average scoring margin of +4.7. We need them in the field.
Most common teams: Oral Roberts = 2019 Belmont (Round of 64); South Dakota State = 2018 UMBC (Round of 32)
Sun Belt
Expected champion: Marshall (30% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Marshall, 1.1 wins
…yeah.
Of all the single-bid leagues, Marshall’s case for March success graded out the strongest by a significant margin. They’re the only team on this list to post a Final Four comparison. Three of their ten comparisons made the Sweet Sixteen. They went 6-4 in the Round of 64, which is frankly shocking for a list full of 11-13 seeds. On its face, it makes sense: great turnover margin, lots of offensive rebounds, high FG% on offense and defense, multiple go-to scorers, and one of the oldest rosters in college hoops. I’m bandwagoning these guys.
Elsewhere in the conference, though, the Sun Belt simply appears to offer solid profiles on the whole. Louisiana-Lafayette had a pair of Round of 64 winners, while Southern Miss and James Madison have one each. The Sun Belt isn’t generally this grand March overperformer - 4-19 in the Round of 64 since 2002 - but this year appears to be different.
Most common teams: Marshall = 2013 Mississippi (Round of 32); UL-Lafayette = 2014 UL-Lafayette (Round of 64); Southern Miss = 2009 VCU (Round of 64); James Madison = 2017 ETSU (Round of 64)
WAC
Expected champion: Utah Valley (40% chance of auto-bid, per Torvik)
Best odds to win a game: Sam Houston State, 0.8 wins
This is a two-team(ish) conference and it’s fine if either team wins it. Sam Houston State has an insane profile for a likely 12 seed: multiple Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight comparisons (headlined by 2014 Dayton and 2012 Ohio) with a 5-5 first round record to go with it. Meanwhile, Utah Valley’s comps went 4-6 in the first round, also a solid rate for a future 12 seed. The WAC as a whole is excellent this season, but SHSU and UVU are like polar opposite great defenses: SHSU focuses on forcing tons of steals, while UVU lays back and makes it hard as heck to get off a clean two. Let’s get one of them in the field of 68.
Most common teams: Sam Houston State = 2014 Stephen F. Austin (Round of 32); Utah Valley = 2016 Hawaii (Round of 32)
The Top 25 (+1) of 2023, in terms of average expected wins
Houston, 3.5 wins
Texas, 2.8
Purdue, 2.6
Alabama, 2.1
Kansas State, 2.1
Tennessee, 2.1
Connecticut, 2
UCLA, 1.9
Virginia, 1.8
Arizona, 1.8
Kansas, 1.7
Saint Mary’s, 1.7
Baylor, 1.6
Creighton, 1.4
San Diego State, 1.4
Duke, 1.3
NC State, 1.3
Xavier, 1.3
Indiana, 1.3
Memphis, 1.3
TCU, 1.3
Iowa State, 1.2
North Carolina, 1.1
Rutgers, 1.1
Marquette, 1.1
Marshall, 1.1