NCAA Weekly, Vol. 1.5 (Bonus): Five Top Fives
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So: just under two weeks ago, I promised everyone who subscribed to this very Substack that they would receive four posts per week. Three would be paid; one would be free. This week, Tennessee basketball has two games to cover (two previews) and I’ve done the traditional NCAA Weekly post. That leaves one free post to figure out. Whenever we have these gaps in a given week, you’ll get weird bonus posts like this one. They will always be free.
This bonus newsletter’s theme is top fives. Five of them, to be exact. Four are basketball-centric; one was spoiled on Twitter last week and is in the middle. I’ll be playing with this structure all year. I don’t think these posts (or the NCAA Weekly) will always have rankings; my hope is that those are more on the side of exploring cool things in basketball. But, for now, you have this. Onward.
1: THE MOST SURPRISING RESULTS OF THE WEEK THUS FAR
TCU beating #360 in KenPom by one point. Well, obviously. TCU was favored by 35.5 points at the time the game started. Entering the season, teams who were favored by 30 or more points since 2003 were 540-0, per TeamRankings. After an offseason of gigantic hype, TCU nearly posted the literal biggest upset loss in at least two decades of basketball. They trailed by 20 ten minutes into the game. I don’t know that TCU could play that poorly again if they tried; luckily, they have an extremely soft non-conference schedule that should allow us to see if they’ll try again.
USC losing at home to Florida Gulf Coast. This is not a very good FGCU team on paper, and their head coach was coaching his first game at the school. Andy Enfield’s been at USC for nine years and returned an above-average amount of experience and minutes. If this is the result, the Pac-12 may be lucky to get three teams in the field.
Houston 83, Northern Colorado 36. Obviously, Houston demolishing a 180s KenPom team is not that stunning. However, this is a Northern Colorado team that won 22 games a year ago and is one of the more experienced mid-majors in the country. Houston more or less picked up where they left off, as NoCo posted a very unfortunate ratio of 23 turnovers to 21 total made field goals + free throws. The Cougars are underdogs in one (1) game all season: December 17 at Virginia.
Oklahoma losing to Sam Houston State. This would be easier to explain away - a preseason KenPom top 30 team losing to a mid-pack WAC side - if it was just Oklahoma having a bad shooting night (5-for-19 from three). But it’s so much worse than that. Oklahoma led by 14 with 8:46 to go and got outscored 23-8 the rest of the way. They lost the turnover battle 21-12 and the offensive rebound battle 11-5; SHSU had 21!!! more shot attempts. I like Porter Moser and want him to figure things out, but this is a bad sign.
A guy who may be figuring things out: Kevin Keatts. Extreme sample-size warning here, obviously. NC State demolished Austin Peay 99-50, which is not that notable on its own unless you consider NCSU’s struggles against lower-tier opponents under Keatts. The Wolfpack have posted 14 losses against Quadrant 3 or 4 opponents since Keatts took over, the third-highest total among all ACC teams. This is a positive step. As a bonus, potential lottery pick Terquavion Smith dropped 26 points on 15 shots and looked the part of a star.
2: OUR BEST CHANCES AT NCAA TOURNAMENT FIRST-TIMERS
Purdue Fort Wayne (29% chance of making the NCAAT, per Torvik). Formerly IPFW and now seemingly just Fort Wayne, this is the early-season Horizon League favorite, per the analytics sites. Fort Wayne/IPFW/PFW enters their 22nd year in Division 1 basketball playing their best basketball yet. They’ve won two regular season championships (one Summit League, one Horizon League), but has made just one conference tournament final, a 60-57 loss to North Dakota State in 2014. They’re favored in 17 of 20 Horizon League games as it stands; this is the best bet for a 2023 first-timer. Plus, they are called the Mastodons and their mascot is an elephant for some reason? Also they gave the world John Konchar. Go Mastodons.
SIU Edwardsville (23.3% chance). Edwardsville is in their 15th season of Division 1 basketball and has never finished above .500 in conference play. (Seriously!) So why are they second on this list? Four starters came back from last year, and they return almost 70% of minutes from last season. When the prohibitive favorite (Morehead State) only returns 23% in the worst OVC possibly ever, you’ve got a shot.
Utah Valley (20.9% chance). These guys are ranked anywhere from 1st to 5th in the WAC depending on where you look, but they’ve quietly built a steady program. Four of the last five years have resulted in 4th-place finishes or better, including a tie for first in 2020-21. They weren’t a member of a real conference until 2013-14, so their level of suffering is pretty thin, but good programs should be rewarded in this sport.
Sacred Heart (20.7% chance). Here’s some fairly serious suffering. Sacred Heart has no conference championships and just one 20-win season in 24 years of D-1 basketball. The good (?) news is that they play in the Northeast Conference, which offers two benefits: 1. None of the teams are good; 2. The projected conference title co-favorite, Merrimack, is ineligible for postseason play due to moving up from Division II in 2019.
Tennessee-Martin (11.4% chance). Technically, Martin ranks sixth among potential first-time tournament bid odds in 2022-23, but their case is more compelling to root for. Martin’s coach in 2019, Anthony Stewart, passed away from COVID-19 complications. His son, Parker Stewart, transferred to Indiana then came back for one final season. Martin’s had 31 tries to make the NCAA Tournament; all 31 have come up empty, despite three regular season conference titles. In a very down OVC, they’ve got a shot.
Honorable mention: South Dakota (Summit League)
3: WILL’S FAVORITE SONGS TO RUN TO
Quick note that these are not ranked 1-5 in terms of quality, but in terms of year of release.
The Beatles, “Rock and Roll Music” (1964). Hating the Beatles is a time-honored tradition of online people. I do not participate because they are a good band. “Rock and Roll Music” is a delight and a celebration of the title; it fits really well towards the end of a run when I need a pick-me-up or a smile.
The Isley Brothers, “Footsteps in the Dark (Parts 1 & 2)” (1977). Of the hundreds of runs I’ve been on in the last near-three years this has started probably 40 of them. Most of the running I do is at or before sunrise so the title is topical. Also anyone with ears and a functioning brain likes this song.
Fleetwood Mac, “I Know I’m Not Wrong” (1979). This is the most inexplicable submission on this list because I don’t know of a single person on planet Earth that gets pumped up to Fleetwood Mac. This is simply a jam, and the beat is so loud and steady that it’s very easy to follow for staying on pace. Also: a jam. Did I mention that?
Ministry, “N.W.O.” (1992). I put this on playlists for the final mile of runs where I’m A). Trying to set a new personal best or B). In an actual race. This is one of a very slim number of songs that I would describe as making me want to run through a brick wall.
Run the Jewels, “yankee and the brave (ep. 4)” (2020). I don’t think of these guys as musical saviors but this is a very good song that I have grown strangely attached to on runs.
4: TEAMS THAT HELPED THEIR NCAA TOURNAMENT ODDS THE MOST
QUALIFIERS: Must have started the season with a <50% chance of making the Tournament. All numbers are per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast.
Rutgers (+16.8%, up to 47.5% to make the field). Columbia is very bad, and holding them to 35 points really isn’t that impressive…but there’s a real argument that Rutgers, given their head coach being Steve Pikiell, was a little unfairly underrated in preseason polls. Next interesting game: Temple (neutral), November 18
Wisconsin (+16.3%, up to 37.1% to make the field). This was more intriguing to me than Rutgers for one reason: Wisconsin made 12 of their 26 three-point attempts against South Dakota. That would’ve tied their season-high a year ago, while the three-point attempt rate of 47.3% would’ve been their third-highest in 2021-22. Will that sustain itself, or will they go back to Boring Old Wisconsin? Next interesting game: Stanford (neutral), November 11
Utah State (+15.8%, up to 62.8% to make the field). I was high on these guys preseason and smoking a solid Utah Valley team in the fashion they did so is frankly pretty impressive. Taylor Funk and Sean Bairstow are fun to watch! Next interesting game: San Francisco (neutral), December 4
North Carolina State (+13.1%, up to 15% to make the field). Explained above. Given the general wave of the Keatts era I don’t feel terribly confident in their ability to capitalize on this, but at minimum, it would be really nice to see Terquavion Smith playing important basketball. Next interesting game: Kansas (neutral), November 23
Saint Mary’s (+9.8%, up to 39.5% to make the field). You can read War and Peace in the time it will take either team to score a bucket in Sunday’s match between North Texas and Saint Mary’s. I simply believe this, along with UNT and San Diego State, is the best defensive system in mid-major basketball and is capable of sending them to a March run of consequence. Next interesting game: Vermont (home), November 10 (tonight)
5: HIGHEST-LEVERAGE GAMES THIS WEEKEND
It’s easy to pretend that results in November don’t really matter, but for those on the NCAA Tournament fringe, resumes can be solidified or busted depending on the outcome of games like the ones listed below. If you’d like to watch a game that 1) Holds legitimate importance for both parties involved and 2) Is likely to be a close game, this is the list for you.
All rankings provided are via KenPom at the time of writing.
Thursday, November 10: #84 Southern Illinois at #34 Oklahoma State (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Southern Illinois has risen, somewhat surprisingly, to be the biggest threat to Drake in the MVC. This is one of just three projected Quadrant 1 opportunities on their schedule. I don’t think any MVC side is likely to be an at-large, but this would at least open the door. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State really needs to build up as much goodwill as possible in the non-conference before they meet the Big 12 meat grinder. Beating a top 100 team is never a bad thing.
Friday, November 11: #83 Toledo vs. #47 UAB (-4), 5 PM ET, Barstool Sports? Well, whatever. I’m honestly uncertain of what the viewing situation for this is, but this is the MAC favorite versus the C-USA favorite. This is one of two games on UAB’s non-conference slate where they’re less than an eight-point favorite and currently qualifies as a Quad 2 win, which is useful for March. If Toledo wins this, it’s a gigantic resume builder on a schedule where they play just two other top 100 teams.
Friday, November 11: #88 Florida Atlantic at #53 Mississippi (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Kermit Davis needs to make the NCAA Tournament like he needs air. Scheduling a legitimately good FAU side is not the best way to do that, especially since it qualifies as a Quadrant 3 game at the moment. This is obviously much more destructive for Mississippi than FAU if they lose, but alongside next Monday’s battle with Florida, this is one of two giant non-conference opportunities for FAU to stake their claim as a program on the rise.
Friday, November 11: #59 Stanford vs. #44 Wisconsin (-4), 7:30 PM ET, FOX Sports 1. Like Kermit Davis, Jerod Haase badly needs to make the NCAA Tournament. He hasn’t yet at Stanford, and given the level of recruits they’re getting despite how badly they’ve underachieved, this represents a sort of last stand. Wisconsin doesn’t need this as badly, but you would like to not lose a Quadrant 2 game in your own state. This is being played on a baseball field for reasons unknown.
Sunday, November 13: #67 North Texas at #48 Saint Mary’s (-5), 8 PM ET, WCC Network. Massive for both. North Texas would have a legitimate at-large case with this plus their expected strong C-USA performance. Saint Mary’s benefits a bit less with a win, but they need all the solid wins they can get as they project to be a bubble team. The projected total for this game per Torvik is 115 and it somehow feels high.