NCAA Weekly, Vol. 7.1: A conference play primer for all 32 conferences
slightly less confusing than the actual movie Primer (2004)
I’ve had this idea for a while now to check in on every conference in Division I men’s basketball before the majority of conference play starts. Of course, sometimes you have an idea and you don’t know just how much work it’s going to take, but…well, gotta do it.
Anyway, I primarily cover Tennessee and secondarily the SEC, but it’s always good to know how the other 31 conferences are operating in the back of your mind. Below is a survey of all 32, starting with the Big Six, then multi-bid mid-major conferences, then single-bid conferences. I’m trying to provide you with names you need to know, along with names you shouldn’t get to attached to because of conference tournament randomness. All numbers and odds listed are via Bart Torvik’s website.
The first six of these - the Big Six - are free. Everything after that is paid subscriber only. Onward!
The Big Six
ACC
Favorites (25% or above): Virginia (33% to get at least a share of ACC title), Duke (26.7%), Virginia Tech (25.9%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): Miami (17%), North Carolina (12.8%), Pittsburgh (12%)
Wildcards (5% or above): Clemson (8%)
Expected tournament teams: 5.9 (fourth-most)
ACC play already started a week ago; this is a really interesting situation where the three favorites are currently 3-3 in conference play (each 1-1) while the three darkhorses are 6-1. This is the worst ACC since 2012 if not far further back; none of the teams rank higher than Virginia at 13th in KenPom.
As such, this expects to be a deeply chaotic race. All of the top seven teams - including PITTSBURGH!!!! - are projected to finish between 12-8 and 14-6. Torvik expects a tie at the top, most likely between Virginia and Duke, but there are eight teams (NC State included) that feel like somewhat realistic top four contenders. The problem is that beyond those top three none of these teams look very good by the metrics. There’s a realistic chance of a team finishing 12-8 or even 13-7 in ACC play and missing the Tournament, which would feel unthinkable in most years. The good news for everyone involved is that they’ll go undefeated against Louisville.
CHAMPION: Virginia and Duke share the title at 14-6.
TOURNAMENT: Six teams make the NCAA Tournament: Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami, Virginia Tech, and…NC State.
SUPER DARKHORSE: UNC at 12.8% to win it feels like cheating; I think they were wildly overrated entering the season but it’s still the same team that entered the year top 10 in every metrics projection. I don’t like NC State to win it (4.1%) but a top-five finish feels like a value bet if it existed.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Duke at North Carolina, March 4. Depending on Virginia/Virginia Tech’s fortunes, it could decide the regular season title.
Big East
Favorites (25% or above): UConn (83%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): Marquette (15.7%), Xavier (10.4%)
Wildcards (5% or above): Creighton (6.5%)
Expected tournament teams: 4.1 (fifth-most)
In contrast, this looks boring on paper. Connecticut appears like the easy best team here, which is backed up by Shot Quality numbers. I don’t think they’re gonna go undefeated for the full season - it would be amazing to watch, but there’s enough pitfalls on the schedule that it’s hard to envision.
This is simply a very okay conference: one legitimate title contender, three other NCAA Tournament teams with Sweet Sixteen potential, and…nothing else. I expected St. John’s to be better than they are and have been disappointed. Same for Seton Hall. Butler’s hot start has faded. The fifth-best team here is any of Providence, Villanova, or St. John’s, none of whom inspire much confidence.
CHAMPION: Connecticut goes 17-3 and wins the title race by three full games over Creighton.
TOURNAMENT: Four teams make the NCAA Tournament: potential overall 1 seed Connecticut, 6 seed Marquette, 6 seed Creighton, and 7 seed Xavier. Providence is a 2 seed in the NIT.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Creighton’s value at 6.5% is artificially deflated by the Kalkbrenner injury; they are obviously far better when he’s on the court. Providence will go 11-9, somehow beating Xavier and losing to Georgetown in the same season.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UConn at Marquette, January 11. This is the most likely loss on UConn’s schedule as of now; if they get out of this one undefeated I will begin to believe.
Big Ten
Favorites (25% or above): Purdue (63.2%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): Ohio State (14.8%), Rutgers (14%), Wisconsin (12.4%)
Wildcards (5% or above): Maryland (8%), Indiana (5%)
Expected tournament teams: 8.4 (most)
This has not gone how I expected to. I picked Iowa to win it in the preseason but figured Illinois and Indiana were decent bets as well; they collectively rank 8th, 10th, and 6th in title odds on Torvik. Instead, Zach Edey and Purdue are staring down the season of a lifetime. It would be pretty surprising if they finished with fewer than 14 conference wins, which is more a testament to the conference being deep with solid teams than anything else.
There’s potential for a challenger here but I’m unaware of who it would be. Ohio State has the best shot but is an awful defensive team. Rutgers is a great defense with maybe the worst offense an NCAA Tournament team will have this year. Wisconsin is the same thing as they always are. Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, and Illinois are all significant-to-giant disappointments. It would be ideal to nail down a challenger; the problem is that no obvious one exists. Twelve of the fourteen Big Ten teams are in the top 50 of KenPom, which is insane, but no conference ever puts 12 teams in the Big Dance. At least two, three, maybe four NCAAT-quality teams will get left out.
CHAMPION: Purdue goes 15-5 and wins the Big Ten by one game over…uh…Rutgers. Sure.
TOURNAMENT: Nine teams get in, matching the last two years: Purdue, Ohio State, Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, and…Iowa? Iowa. You could easily convince me that Northwestern or Michigan State get in over any of those last three; I could also hear the case for Michigan if they figure things out.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Illinois is 0-2 in conference play but ranks 10th in Shot Quality and is one of the unluckier teams in the sport. Iowa’s value has been tanked by the literal worst loss of the last 30 years, but aside from that game they’ve looked the part of a low-end Top 25 team. The path is there for them to go 12-8 in the Big Ten, get a 9 seed, and do absolutely nothing with it.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Purdue at Maryland, February 16. There’s a lot of contenders, but I like looking for later-season ones where the favorite has taken a lot of hits and heads on the road to a tough environment against a good team.
Big 12
Favorites (25% or above): Kansas (47.4%), Texas (31%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): West Virginia (19.6%), Baylor (12%)
Wildcards (5% or above): Oklahoma State (7.5%)
Expected tournament teams: 7.7 (second-most)
This is the greatest basketball conference ever assembled. I mean: EVERY SINGLE TEAM RANKS 51ST OR HIGHER IN KENPOM. That is utterly insane. There isn’t a single off night in this conference. There is no South Carolina or Nebraska or Georgetown. The worst team this conference offers - Kansas State - is like playing a particularly strong 12 seed or a First Four team. I genuinely have never seen anything like it.
Anyway, Kansas and Texas are co-favorites but with extremely different seasons to date. Kansas got demolished by Tennessee but has looked stellar otherwise; Texas has looked great but is dealing with a deeply weird situation at head coach and it’s very hard to predict how that affects the players over the weeks and months to come. West Virginia has lived up to the analytical hype; Baylor has underwhelmed but still looks strong. The problem with writing about the Big 12 is that you could write thousands of words on each team and it would still feel incomplete.
CHAMPION: Kansas wins the conference for the billionth time in the last 30 years, going 13-5 to beat out 12-6 Texas.
TOURNAMENT: I mean, in theory, someone has to miss. My guess, and it is a guess, is that 1-2 of these teams has a conference record of 5-13 or 6-12 despite good analytics and it’s too much to overcome. Even 7-11 feels like a hard sell. So: eight teams make the field. Kansas, Texas, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and…TCU? get in. Meaning Oklahoma (oof) and Kansas State would miss.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Literally anyone. Pick a team.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Kansas at Texas, March 4. The title decider, possibly.
Pacific 12
Favorites (25% or above): UCLA (79.5%), Arizona (27%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): none
Wildcards (5% or above): Utah (5.3%)
Expected tournament teams: 3.3 (seventh-most)
Boring two-team conference, next. UCLA ranks 4th in KenPom and Arizona 8th. No one else - literally no one! - ranks higher than Oregon at 47th. Once you get past the obvious two good teams it’s impossible to find a third likable one. Utah comes closest simply because they’ve already beaten Arizona. Stanford - a team that went 5-5 in non-conference and is currently 0-2 in Pac-12 play - is projected to go 10-10. I cannot get you to a second paragraph.
CHAMPION: UCLA wins the conference running away, going 17-3 to Arizona’s 15-5. Oregon and Utah tie for third at 12-8.
TOURNAMENT: There’s probably four or five teams that will hover near the bubble all year long. My best guess is that one finds their way in. UCLA, Arizona, and…erm…uh…screw it, they get two in. I don’t like watching this conference.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I came into this season very low on Oregon, so it’s weird to be in the “think about Oregon” position here, but Shot Quality has them as the #3 team in the conference and they’ve had to deal with injuries all year. They’re an atrocious shooting team, but Dana Altman hasn’t finished without a winning record in Pac-12 play since 2010-11. They’re primed to be the hottest 20-14 First Four team the field offers.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UCLA at Arizona, January 21. Winner gains the edge in the Pac-12 race. Also, this honestly might be the single best game of the season in college basketball.
Southeastern
Favorites (25% or above): Tennessee (75.3%)
Darkhorses (10% or above): Alabama (14.9%), Arkansas (13.5)
Wildcards (5% or above): Auburn (8%), Kentucky (7.3%)
Expected tournament teams: 6.8 (third-most)
This is a Tennessee-centric blog; even I would not put Tennessee’s odds at an astounding 75% to at least get a share. I think they have a very good shot at doing so, but 75% feels aggressive. I like Alabama a little more than their number and Arkansas a little less.
The story here, of course, is Kentucky. This was KenPom’s preseason #1 team; at no point this season have they really looked the part. Kentucky usually rounds into form in late January/early February, and that can certainly still happen, but nearly half the conference schedule gets played before that point. I would be a little surprised if they end up the 1 seed, and for the second time ever, they might not get the double-bye.
CHAMPION: Tennessee wins the conference at 15-3, beating out Alabama and Arkansas.
TOURNAMENT: I think the SEC gets seven in the field: Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas (all somewhere in the 1-3 seed range), Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Missouri.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None. The SEC feels pretty settled in terms of who the five best teams are. But: I do think Florida is better than they’ve shown.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Alabama at Arkansas, January 11. This is the first matchup between the top three teams. An argument could be had for Arkansas/Auburn and Kentucky/Alabama on January 7.