Saturday NCAA Tournament preview, Round of 32
unfortunately a 16 seed cannot win today
Well, if this day tops yesterday, I will simply clap like a seal. Because I already have a preview up for one of the games, the first half of these are free and the remainder are behind a paywall. Let me know if you see something weird. This one’s shorter because I had to write a couple other things in the meantime.
(5) San Diego State (-5.5) vs. (13) Furman, 12:10 PM ET, CBS
Polar opposite matchup here with KenPom’s #10 defense vs. #178. Furman presumably feels a little lucky to even be here given how their first game ended, but everyone needs a little luck in March anyway. Furman switching to a 1-3-1 against Virginia helped get them back in the game and push them over the top, and it could be pivotal against an SDSU offense that gets stuck in the mud pretty often. X-factor is fouls: SDSU runs pretty deep but Furman would prefer to only go 7-deep.
Prediction: Defense has proved very important thus far this tourney, with 1-5 seeds possessing a top 25 defense being 11-1. Eventually, someone’s going to expose a bad Furman defense. SDSU 72, Furman 65.
(4) Tennessee (+3.5) vs. (5) Duke, 2:40 PM ET, CBS
If you’re a paid subscriber, you can read my full preview of this game here.
(1) Kansas (-3.5) vs. (8) Arkansas, 5:15 PM ET, CBS
Well, prior to Purdue going Purdue Mode, I had this as the first 1-seed losing, but now it feels a little less probable. Kansas is (well, was) the worst 1-seed in the field and drew the best 8-seed, and on paper this still looks like a potentially rough matchup for them. Kansas doesn’t have a real rim protector and doesn’t do a great job of keeping teams out of the paint, which is a problem when Arkansas generates more points in the paint than 99% of college teams. Kansas switches a ton on D, which could generate some 1-on-1 matchups for Arkansas to take advantage of. The other end of this, however, is the fact that Arkansas will simply spend at least 10-15 minutes of the average game doing incredibly stupid stuff.
Prediction: This feels like too easy of a pick to go with, and frankly, we’re overdue for Musselman to not be God in March. Kansas 76, Arkansas 73.
(7) Missouri (-6.5) vs. (15) Princeton, 6:10 PM ET, TNT
Well, this isn’t the matchup any of us were expecting. Missouri rode Utah State’s worst shooting day from deep of the entire season to a first-round win (Shot Quality graded it as a Utah State win), while Princeton somehow defeated a 2-seed despite shooting 16% from deep. (Shot Quality graded that as a near double-digit win for Princeton.) Missouri has an obvious athletic advantage here, but I’ve been waiting for the entire season for them to finally not shoot like Steph and Klay in crunch time. Maybe this is it, maybe this isn’t, but something tells me Princeton sticks around.
Prediction: Something also tells me that we will not get what we want, of course. But whatever: Princeton 75, Missouri 70.