SEC Weekly, Vol. 1: Re-evaluating the league as we enter 2023
no controversy at all whatsoever
Here’s a new series we’ll be running at the Substack this season: a weekly SEC-specific post. Not all of them will be based around power rankings, of course, but considering the general popularity of those, I’ve tried to break down the conference in that same style. There are six tiers of teams as it stands, with at least one paragraph written about each team.
Full credit for this concept goes to Mike Miller, formerly of NBC Sports and now running the Field of 68 daily newsletter. This first SEC Weekly is free; the rest will be behind a paywall and will feature weekly breakdowns of at least one team in the conference.
OBVIOUS TITLE CONTENDERS
1. Tennessee
2. Alabama
I had considered hedging here a bit and having this as 1A/1B. I don’t think it would be purely offensive to do so, as Tennessee out-ranks Alabama in every single predictive metric while Alabama’s to-date resume is a little better than Tennessee’s. Plus, it’s easy to watch the two teams play and simply feel they’re equal, if not thinking Alabama may be a hair better.
And yet: Tennessee is ahead in these rankings for a reason. Their defense is historically good, and even if it’s due for regression on threes in particular, data shows that Tennessee’s due for more shots to go in on their end. It’s hard to find a single predictive site in existence that doesn’t have Tennessee at least in the top 5, and of the Big Six - KenPom, Torvik, Haslametrics, EvanMiya, Shot Quality, and ESPN’s BPI - all six had Tennessee second overall as of the time of writing.
What I’m saying is that yes, it’s okay to believe that this imperfect Tennessee team really is one of the 2-5 best in America in a year where the 5th-place team in KenPom would’ve finished 10th in 2021-22. The top isn’t as strong, and the opportunity is very much there. Plus, Tennessee’s schedule is a bit lighter than Alabama’s, and per a hybrid of KenPom and Torvik, they’ve got a 52% chance of making it to the Texas game on January 28 at 18-2, 8-0 in the SEC. At that point, they’ll be getting the AP Poll respect that’s overdue.
Alabama is right there with them, though, and it looks like a battle to the end for the SEC crown, at least in the regular season. Alabama has the SEC’s leading scorer in Brandon Miller, probably the single best win in college basketball (their road win at Houston), and a top 20 offense and defense per KenPom. Their two losses - Gonzaga and UConn - are pretty much entirely inoffensive ones to take.
However, this is a team with a very serious problem: turnovers on both sides. Alabama ranks sixth from the bottom nationally (!) with a -3.9 turnover margin per game. Against a lot of teams, that won’t be a problem, but against the four best teams they’ve played, they’ve posted a combined -28 TO margin. That’s an insane disadvantage to try to overcome.
Alabama’s great at the other Four Factors and has a tremendous defense, but they’re currently on pace for a -121 turnover margin in the regular season. Since at least 2010, no high-major team has finished the season ranked, much less won a conference, with a turnover margin that high. That’s got to change. The two teams most similar to Alabama’s turnover/rebounding per 100 margins over the last 13 years were 2017-18 Michigan State and 2015-16 Purdue. Those teams combined for one NCAA Tournament win. I like these guys and love watching them, but that’s gotta get fixed.
NEXT MEN UP
3. Arkansas
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Auburn
You could make the case for Arkansas having to be in that top-two group, but I personally don’t agree. Friend of the Substack Jon Fendler explained why recently:
That’s been holding true for some time. Arkansas did manage to escape a surging Missouri last night and remains a hair ahead in the race for third right now, but I’ve yet to see a version of this Arkansas team that looks like one of the best two teams in the conference. It was always meme material to put this team as the best in America or whatever, but I think they’ve more or less lived up exactly to metrics expectations: one of the 10-15 best teams in America, but not one of the top teams. If Nick Smith is really out for the season, that limits their ceiling further. Still: at worst, they have the second-best defense in the league and are crazy hard to score on.
Mizzou, meanwhile, has arguably overachieved more than any other SEC team this year. They’re a delightful chaos watch: Torvik ranks their offense 2nd in America and their defense 183rd. Of the top six teams in this conference, I feel confident in stating they’ve got the best offense and far and away the worst defense. That’s probably going to put a hard cap on their ceiling; the most similar teams in recent memory are 2020-21 LSU and 2017-18 Arkansas, both of whom ended up 8 seeds. Even so, that represents great progress in Year One of Dennis Gates.
Kentucky probably passes up Missouri by season’s end, just because their formula is a little more sustainable. That formula may just be “we have the returning National Player of the Year and also Cason Wallace,” though. Kentucky’s offense, despite the quality metrics, has been a pretty rough watch against quality competition:
The problem is that their defense sucks now, too. Kentucky’s last four opponents - two of which were Florida A&M and Louisville - have all gone >1 PPP, with Missouri and LSU pretty much shredding what UK was trying to do. Of all the teams in this conference, I feel comfortable stating that on pure talent, UK ranks no worse and probably outranks part of the Alabama/Arkansas/Tennessee group. The problem is that those three are the top three teams in the SEC. Kentucky’s behind a team that effectively did not exist eight months ago.
Auburn is not a very good basketball team. I’m stating this because I think people need to hear it and hammer it in as an actual truth. These guys rank 27th in KenPom after beginning the year 11th; their best win is likely a 43-42 neutral site win over a Northwestern side that looks primed to finish 10th in the Big Ten. That might even be a little kind. Torvik has them 37th; Shot Quality has them all the way down at 43rd. Last night, they lost to Georgia. They still do a lot of their same good stuff on defense, but their shooting is horrendous (28.9% from three) and almost no one is able to get an easy bucket. I don’t doubt Auburn ends up with a couple great wins by season’s end, but to have three losses before playing a single Quadrant 1 opponent is a bad sign.
BUBBLE BOYS
7. Mississippi State
8. LSU
I think that one of these two make the eventual field of 68, but not both. Mississippi State is the better team as of now, but getting utterly demolished by Tennessee and looking largely non-competitive against Alabama is a rough reminder that they’re not going to be cracking into either of those top two groups this season. Chris Jans is a great defensive coach, but their offense is…woof. Generally just woof.
LSU is really interesting to me. They’re 12-2 and beat Arkansas last week, but they’re down from preseason projections in every predictive metric I’ve seen. Their point differential is more like that of a 10-4 team than a 12-2 one, and their non-conference slate was horrendous. They aren’t great at any one thing but generally competent everywhere. I feel like I don’t know enough about them yet, given that nine of their 14 opponents have been of the Quad 4 variety and they’ve played a total of three top 100 teams to date. I’m leaving them 8th and on the bubble for now; check back on these guys on January 28 after they’ve had to play Arkansas twice, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky.
NIT HOPEFULS
9. Florida
10. Georgia
11. Ole Miss
12. Texas A&M
A nice mix of Somewhat Disappointing But It’s Year One (Florida), Somewhat Disappointing But Oh God It’s Year Four and You Still Haven’t Made the NCAA Tournament??? (Texas A&M), Somewhat Overachieving (Georgia), and Ole Miss (Ole Miss).
Florida is ranked atop this list of roughly equivalent teams simply because the metrics like them the most. They’ve arguably got the worst resume of any of the four in this group, but I don’t think the metrics lie for no reason. They’ve simply been one of the unluckiest teams in America. Their point differential is more like that of a 9-5 team, and Shot Quality sees them as a top-35 team nationally. I don’t know if I’d go that far, but the Gators are long overdue for better results. The problem is that they’ve dug themselves a hole so deep that March Madness is largely out of the question and it’s just about if you can finish .500 or better to make the NIT.
Georgia is the only team on this list I’ve been pleasantly surprised by. They’re still not good - please do not get that wrong - but I figured they would at minimum be one of the two worst teams the SEC offered this season. That doesn’t appear to be the case. I’m holding out on Mike White; if he gets this team to, like, a top-8 SEC finish in 2023-24, I think I’ll accept that Florida is the problem, not White Michael.
Ole Miss is, once again, playing the sport of college basketball. We’re all very excited about this, and we can all recall a standout moment from a game they’ve played in. We can all remember the final score of when they played Memphis or Alabama. We’re all well aware of the name of more than one player on this team! All of us are very excited for our respective teams to play Ole Miss, and when they play it will definitely be a game we will remember literally anything at all from.
Texas A&M is lucky Kentucky exists, because otherwise they’d be the obvious pick for the most disappointing team in this conference. A&M entered this year with very reasonable dreams of making the NCAA Tournament and being a top 35-40 team. Instead, they sit 80th on Torvik, 72nd on KenPom, and even Shot Quality - who’s rosier on them than anyone else - has them as the 10th-best team in the conference.
This shouldn’t have happened. A&M returned an above-average amount of scoring and minutes from a good team last year that probably should’ve made the field of 68. All they’ve done with that is lose five games out of conference, two of which are to teams outside the KenPom top 150. Buzz Williams loves having an awful run in non-conference play then somehow going 10-8 in the SEC, but their defense and perimeter shooting are so bad that I’m struggling to see how that happens this year.
NORMAL BAD
13. Vanderbilt
Well, they’re not good, but the good news for Jerry Stackhouse is that they’re saved from 14th by one of the worst collections of talent the SEC has offered in some time. The bad news for Stackhouse is that 14th-place has a first-year head coach and almost no returning useful talent. Stack’s in his fourth season, got a contract extension for no reason at all, and…has reacted appropriately.
To be honest, it would be hard to envision a worse follow-up for Stackhouse to his extension. Vandy went an astounding 7-6 in non-conference play against KenPom’s 143rd-ranked non-conference schedule. They managed a one-point home win over a decent Pittsburgh team…and also lost to KenPom #129 Southern Miss (60-48), #115 VCU (75-70) in a game Stackhouse got ejected from in embarrassing fashion, and #218 Grambling State (64-62). They’re 1-0 in conference play solely because they beat 14th-place by five points at home in overtime. They’re on track to finish 5-13 in the SEC, which would mean a 12-19 regular season record. Luckily, it’s not as if you committed more money to this experiment.
BAD BAD
14. South Carolina
Some statistics:
South Carolina ranks 200th on KenPom. The next-lowest SEC team ranks 97th.
Alongside 2021-22 Georgia, the Gamecocks are on pace to be the second sub-200 SEC team in the last nine years of the conference.
South Carolina is shooting 60.7% from the free throw line (355th of 363).
They have two wins over top 200 KenPom teams: #55 Clemson and #150 Western Kentucky.
They have five losses to teams ranked 100th or worse.
Statistics suggest they’re lucky to even be 7-7. KenPom’s Luck rating has the Gamecocks as the 32nd-luckiest team in America, with a point differential more suggestive of a 5-9 team.
The good news for Lamont Paris is that, almost certainly, it cannot get worse.
Great article Will. Looks like overall the SEC is down a little this season due to all of the coaching changes. I may have ranked A&M slightly higher after winning on the road at Florida last night