SEC Weekly, Vol. 2: Explaining Florida, the analytics darling (of sorts)

how about Castle Ton and it's Colin Castleton's castle (available on AirBNB) in Gainesville, FL

Every year, there’s going to be a few win-loss outliers on the analytics sites: teams that lose a bunch of close games but are probably still pretty good. Famous (to me) examples include 2021-22 Oklahoma (19-16, 30th overall on KenPom), 2018-19 Texas (21-16, 25th), or 2017-18 Notre Dame (21-15, 35th). Those three teams went a combined 16-25 in games decided by 6 or fewer points, but went 45-22 in all other games. They were probably better than their records indicated.

There are some pretty common things among this year’s top KenPom sides, as of the time of writing. The average amount of losses of Top 25 teams: 3.08. Average amount of teams ranked 26-50: 4.32. The thing that stands out, of course, are the three teams with seven losses in that top 50 bunch, all of whom held the same 9-7 record prior to Creighton’s loss:

• #19 Creighton

• #30 Oklahoma State

• #49 Florida

Two of these feel easy to explain. Creighton is 1-5 in close games and went 0-3 in a three-game stretch where their best player was unavailable. It’s very likely that their record should be better, and given that they’re playing very well otherwise, their ranking is defensible. Oklahoma State has the same 1-4 record and plays in perhaps the greatest basketball conference ever constructed, so I can’t say I’m particularly shocked to see them rank well.

But Florida? Florida? This Florida team that feels about as easy to digest as raw chicken? Continuing to see them hold out well analytically is an eye-opener, especially given their resume. Among Torvik’s top 50 teams, only Washington State has a lower Wins Above Bubble rating, and Florida’s is the worst among Ken’s top 50. They’re 1-6 against Quadrants 1 & 2, and that one win didn’t come until Tuesday against LSU.

We have these cases pop up from time to time, but rarely do they really surprise me. Still, I figured this one in particular - given that this is indeed a series titled SEC Weekly - required a little more investigation. Let’s figure out why Florida ranks so well despite a terrible resume and a pedestrian offense.

BELOW THE LINE: Golden boy Todd