SEC Weekly, Vol. 3: The 2022-23 SEC's doppelgangers

staring into a mirror and saying "am I 2018-19 Texas Tech, or am I not?"

What do you do when the game you were watching last night goes until an astounding 11:43 PM Eastern despite starting at 9:02 and ending in regulation? You think of a post that’s perfect for content aggregators and also required very little deep thought.

Using the similarity score tools available on Bart Torvik’s website, I’ve found both upside and downside doppelgangers for the 2022-23 SEC squads. Some make a lot of sense to me personally; some require a lot of squinting. Ultimately, it’s up to you to make the call as to if they’re fair comparisons or not.

These posts are almost always paywalled, but this week is free because I’m tempted to get it in front of more eyeballs. (Plus, next week’s SEC Weekly is about Arkansas’s offense, so that one is reserved for the true sickos.)

BOTH SEC AND NATIONAL TITLE CONTENDERS

1. Alabama

Good: 2021-22 Arizona. You remember these guys. These absolute flamethrowers! What a fun team they were. Arizona dominated the Pacific-12 in a year where they actually had real competition in UCLA, rode a wave of great shooting and frontcourt dominance to a 1 seed, and became national darlings of a sort. They also had a future top 6 pick on their roster in Bennedict Mathurin who currently sits #2 in the NBA Rookie of the Year running.

Bad: Also 2021-22 Arizona. 2021-22 Arizona was amazing until the NCAA Tournament started. They lethargically let 16-seed Wright State hang around for about 26 minutes, very nearly (and probably should’ve, if we’re being honest) lost to a 9 seed in the next round, then got pounded by 5-seed Houston in the Sweet Sixteen. When it came down to it, a team that struggled with turnovers and did a poor job of protecting the defensive boards despite all their height lost the turnover battle in all three Tournament games and got whooped on the defensive boards by TCU and Houston. Even January flamethrowers have real March flaws.

2. Tennessee

Good: Better 2018-19 Texas Tech. This is the comparison that everyone is going to make for Tennessee as to what they could be; I think we should probably lean into it as best as we can. Texas Tech has the best full-season defense in KenPom history, but Tennessee is currently besting it. Also, 2022-23 Tennessee is just straight-up better than TTU was at the time. On January 19, 2019, Tech’s offense ranked 110th in America. Tennessee’s is at least a top 50 unit and rising to go with the #1 defense. I never seriously believed that Tech team could win a title until they very nearly did. I really do believe Tennessee could be champions, especially in this wide-open year.

Bad: Better 2021-22 Tennessee. Well, it’s a team coached by Rick Barnes, and seemingly everyone agrees upon what that means at this point in time. While I think the concept of a March Coach is very overrated - a ton of March success centers around shooting luck, sorry to say - the fear is there. It would be foolish to ignore the fear, frankly. If this is a better 2021-22 Tennessee, then maybe they make the Sweet Sixteen before they inevitably shoot 3-for-20 from three. How’s that for realism?

I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS TEAM IS ANY GOOD BUT SOMEONE HAS TO BE RANKED THIRD

3. Auburn

Good: 2018-19 Florida State. I mean, I don’t believe that Auburn is good at all. No team willingly giving so many possessions to Wendell Green and K.D. Johnson is that serious. And yet: 2018-19 FSU was also very unenjoyable to watch for a large portion of the year until they figured it out in February and got hot on both ends of the court. A team that appeared headed for an 8/9 seed instead ended up a 4 seed that made the Sweet Sixteen. Also, like Auburn, their best player was a 6’10” monster on the boards.

Bad: 2015-16 Seton Hall. Look: I know in my heart that Auburn is not a bad basketball team. They are a good basketball team that I personally don’t enjoy watching at all. That exists every year. The banner for this for a while was this Seton Hall team, a horrendous offense that turned it over non-stop, had awful on-court attitudes, and couldn’t make a three until their chaotic guards - Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington - decided to get scalding hot in the Big East Tournament. Then they got demolished in the Round of 64 by an 11 seed. That all sounds like fair play for Auburn.

FART SLIPPING OUT AT 37-MINUTE MARK OF CHURCH AS EVERYONE AROUND YOU SAYS “WHY CAN’T YOU BE BETTER THAN THIS?”

4. Arkansas

Good: 2009-10 Michigan State. Analytically, I don’t think this connects. I’m also not sure anyone can or would agree with ranking Arkansas 4th out of 14 in this conference right now; if you want to place them 6th or 7th that’s fine. But I remember believing the same at the time about Michigan State, a very talented team with future pros on it that never seemed to get out of its own way…until they did so and made the Final Four as a 5 seed.

Bad: 2020-21 North Carolina. Alternately, all of that talent might just not come together. No one remembers COVID UNC aside from it being Roy’s last team there, but they had eight former Top 100 recruits - four of them five-stars - on the roster. They entered the season 16th in the AP Poll and fifth in championship odds. And it just never came together. They struggled their way to an 8 seed with inconsistent results and lost by 23 to Wisconsin in the first round, which is really a remarkable thing to ever do to Wisconsin. Arkansas is 1-5 in the SEC as I type this, and this seems like a more realistic ending than the good side.

5. Missouri

Good: 2011-12 Creighton. When chaos is good, it looks like this. Doug McDermott-era Creighton opted out of playing defense, but they were so good and so delightful offensively that it didn’t matter. This is not a perfect 1:1 because the MVC is lesser than the SEC, but frankly, the talent level and origin of players is very similar. This Missouri roster is heavily built upon mid-major transfers. Just like McDermott Creighton, I adore watching Gates Missouri. This team was an 8 seed that made the Round of 32; if Mizzou does the same it is a massive success for Year One.

Bad: 2017-18 Marquette. At the same time, I can remember a high-major equivalent to this that I loved watching but cringed at how easily they opted out of playing defense. Thinking about Markus Howard missing the Tournament now is pretty nuts, but Marquette did it with relative ease in 2018. After a hot start, they ended up 18-12 and 9-9 in the Big East. A 9-9 record in the SEC for Missouri would mean 20-11 if they lose to Iowa State, which is not bad, but…are we totally sure that 9-9 SEC Missouri is making the Tournament? I’m not convinced, especially with the SEC coming in under expectation as a whole.

6. Kentucky!

Good: 2014-15 UCLA. The exclamation point is because every time you bury these guys, they pull one out to make you look foolish. I remember living through this before. 2014-15 UCLA had no business losing as many games as they did with a roster consisting of Norman Powell and Kevon Looney. And yet: they did! But every time you wanted to bury them, they managed some ridiculous out-of-nowhere win that barely kept them alive. They snuck in as an 11 seed and made the Sweet Sixteen. Kentucky doing the same frankly feels appropriate.

Bad: 2012-13 Kentucky. I mean, we already saw some version of this. The 2013 SEC was much weaker than 2023, but Kentucky - possibly the most talented team in the league that year - managed to lose five games to teams ranked 60th or lower in KenPom. A poorly-timed injury to Nerlens Noel wrecked the season and put them in the NIT, becoming a very rare preseason top 5 AP Poll team to miss the Tournament. They’re the last team to do so.

7. Texas A&M

Good: 2014-15 Purdue. Team demolishes any preseason hype they had in November and December by accumulating bad loss after bad loss in non-conference play. Team turns the page to January, suddenly finds their stride in conference play, and goes 12-6 en route to making the Tournament as a 9-seed at-large. Should they have been a 9-seed, or in the field at all? Maybe not, but they were. This is 2014-15 Purdue, and it very easily could be 2022-23 Texas A&M, also currently projected to go 12-6 in SEC play after an atrocious start.

Bad: 2021-22 Texas A&M. Well, we just saw essentially this exact same team last year, but flipped. A&M had a rare good non-conference performance that got wrecked by eight consecutive losses in SEC play. They turned it around in time to make the SEC Tournament championship game, but they were on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. Should that team have made the Tournament? I mean, yeah, it was shocking they weren’t in there. But: they were not, and the same fate could befall this A&M team.

MIDDLING SIDES THAT AREN’T OUTRIGHT BAD, BUT POSSESS SOME AMOUNT OF BAD VIBES

8. Florida

Good: 2015-16 Vanderbilt. If only there was a relatively recent instance of an SEC team that had an awful start to the season, could not stop losing close games, but still had quality metrics because they were really good in all the other affairs. 2015-16 Vanderbilt started out 8-7, 0-3 in the SEC, but never once fell out of the top 40 in KenPom. This Florida team isn’t currently as good as that Vandy team was, but the potential is there for a turnaround. If they can somehow manage an 11-7 record in SEC play, as Vandy did, they’re in business.

Bad: 2014-15 Florida. Alternately, maybe Florida doesn’t stop losing close games and maintains their extreme bad luck all the way to a very disappointing season that includes missing the NCAA Tournament. This has happened before; it may well happen again.

9. Mississippi State

Good: 2014-15 San Diego State. Shockingly, it’s fairly hard to find a direct high-major comparison for a team that sits in the 200s offensively on Torvik but near the top 10 in defense. This San Diego State team came closest and made the Round of 32. Chris Jans is an excellent coach; if State’s offense can even encroach on top-125 territory they’d be playing like a top-40 team and a legitimate at-large threat.

Bad: 2013-14 Illinois. Or they might simply have run out of steam behind a guy who’s relatively new to the job and a roster that cannot score the basketball.

10. Georgia

Good: 2012-13 Providence. First (okay, second)-year head coach overachieves with an extremely under-talented roster en route to an 11 seed and a surprise Tournament bid. I really don’t think Mike White is as bad as he looked at Florida nor as good as he looked at Louisiana Tech, but he possesses some amount of talent as a head coach. I don’t think this Georgia team is actually going to make the NCAAs, but the fact they’re 10th and KenPom projects them to win 19 regular season games is frankly remarkable. I expected these guys to win about 12.

Bad: 2020-21 and 2021-22 Wichita State. First-year head coach overachieves in tough situation in first year. They sneak into the Tournament despite probably not deserving a bid. In Year Two, things go south quickly and they don’t improve on the solid start. Come Year Three, it becomes apparent that everyone read a little too much into the fluke that was Year One.

11. Vanderbilt

Good: 2013-14 Providence. This is not a very good comparison and might be the least-appropriate on the list. But hear me out! 2013-14 Providence relied heavily on its frontcourt to produce, ran great offensive stuff, but lacked talent and struggled in conference play. Then they won the Big East Tournament and got a surprise bid as an 11 seed. If Jerry Stackhouse did the same, I’m honestly not sold that I would be that stunned. (Though obviously worth noting that no one’s won the SECT as lower than a 5 seed since Georgia in 2007-08.)

Bad: 2021-22 Northwestern. Alternately, a team that doesn’t recruit well and has extremely high academic standards squanders its few quality wins with a pair of really bad home losses and misses the Tournament in perhaps their best shot since 2016-17 to make it.

BAD TEAMS WITH POLAR OPPOSITE SITUATIONS

12. LSU

Good: 2014-15 Tennessee. 2013-14 Tennessee experienced quite the amount of success and got a lot of national love before their coach left for…reasons. Donnie Tyndall was left to pick up the pieces until he got canned for NCAA violations. I don’t think Matt McMahon will do the same, but Tyndall’s teams fought hard despite a lack of high-major talent and pulled off some impressive upsets before collapsing in SEC play. It was a vision you could believe in had he stayed around.

Bad: 2021-22 Louisville. Hot non-conference start followed by the calendar turning to January and the season going to pot. McMahon obviously won’t get the Chris Mack treatment, but the on-court parallels are of interest. Louisville fell nearly 40 spots on Torvik despite a net-positive non-conference experience. LSU did the same this year. Both were paper tigers; both got shredded once conference play began. If LSU goes 5-13 (the equivalent of what Louisville did), it wouldn’t be surprising and it would be a similar bummer for their fans.

13. Ole Miss

Good: 2007-08 Georgia. Dennis Felton was absolutely getting fired. Georgia was the worst(ish) team in the SEC, finished dead last in the conference standings, entered March with zero hope at all, and…won the SEC Tournament??? Kermit Davis is probably only saving his job if this Rebels side somehow makes the Big Dance, and this was the most realistic path I could come up with.

Bad: 2018-19 Texas A&M. Alternately, this is a bad basketball team that’s squandered a semi-talented roster and its coach is getting fired in two months so they can hire Bob Richey from Furman.

SOUTH CAROLINA

14. South Carolina

Good: 2017-18 Chattanooga. The good news for Lamont Paris is that he already did this exact thing once. Lamont’s first UTC team was utter garbage, a squad that somehow found three wins in conference play despite being horrendous. Some gave up on him after that first year because of UTC’s performances before him. But he slowly built, slowly found the right pieces, and progressed to a Tournament bid and a near-upset of a 4 seed by Year Five. Given more resources and more NIL money to throw around at South Carolina, that timeline can be sped up quickly.

Bad: 2010-11 Auburn. In 2009-10, UTEP, behind head coach Tony Barbee, made good on a long-term rebuilding plan and got into the Big Dance as a 12 seed behind an impressive 26-6 record. They drew 5-seed Butler, who no one expected that much of at the time, and lost. An SEC team hired Barbee for its own long-term rebuilding plan. His first team was horrendous, and after four years, that rebuilding plan hadn’t gotten off the ground. I hope this is not the case for Paris, who is a great guy, but history is history.