Shot volume is back like it never left

Want to win games? At least in 2024, volume is as important as efficiency

I wrote about this last year, and if you’re new to the newsletter, one of my favorite things to do is to upcycle old ideas. For this one, it’s straight-up plagiarism. Below is a direct copy of the intro to the 2023 article on shot volume:

For most of the last decade I’ve found myself watching games somewhat differently thanks to the work of John Gasaway. He’s very good at getting someone to see how statistics within the game can be interesting and useful without being boring about it. (This is also a good summary of the goal of this site.) But what Gasaway first designed in 2016 and refined later on fascinates me:

It’s hardly news that programs like UK and UNC are excellent at offensive rebounding, but what’s changing is the willingness and ability of elite teams to bring their turnover rates down to the same level as all those plucky yet disciplined underdogs they’re always trampling underfoot. Taking care of the ball and rebounding your misses is a good way to safely navigate your way around an off night on the perimeter.

The original equation was Shot Volume = 100 + OREB% - TO%. The new one is more complicated but a little more accurate (presumably) and involves the idea of 100 possessions where there are no free throw attempts. The point is this: shot efficiency, AKA actually making the shots, is great. That’s the first step. The differentiator, especially on nights when your team isn’t shooting well, is shot volume. Can you find a way to make up for poor shooting? If so, you’re going to be harder to put down than a team that doesn’t.

Everything that follows is a new observation, but to be honest, it’s probably not necessary. 2022-23 was a banner year for shot volume among top 10 teams, and 2023-24 is among the very best in modern history.

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