Show Me My Opponent, 2022-23: Auburn (#1)
spiderman pointing meme but one of the spidermans is the Bill Gates impersonator from Nathan For You
Well, after the latest ill-timed loss, Tennessee does play another basketball game. Scientists have found this one weird trick, which is that in basketball, when you lose a game prior to March 17 or whatever it is this year, the season does not end. Please do not tweet at me about this.
ANYWAY, Tennessee draws familiar foe Auburn and ultra-familiar frenemy (depending on who you ask?) Bruce Pearl to Knoxville. Auburn is not what they were a year ago, when they were AP #1 for a little bit and rode the wave of a 19-game win streak to national fame and a 2 seed. That season ended early, but hey, lots of good memories. The day of game being February 4 and all, let’s see how the last calendar year went for each team involved:
If you squint, this is like Target Tennessee playing Wal-Mart Tennessee in that Wal-Mart mostly gets the job done and can even deliver the goods on occasion. But I don’t see a bunch of the Pioneer Woman at Target and I do not feel like I could at any moment watch two guys completely destroy a store’s offense, so I generally return to that more. No more ham-fisted metaphors!
BELOW THE LINE (FREE ACTUALLY): more ham-fisted metaphors
Auburn’s offense
Last 30 days, via Hoop-Explorer:
Interestingly this has gotten significantly better as the season’s gone on. I wonder why! Here’s the team’s Usage Rates from November 1 to December 19 (the day after their 11th game):
And here it is in the 11 games since. Sometimes, it’s nice to be right about a player.
Just kidding, this is not about last year’s supervillain. Auburn’s gotten better at hitting shots, mostly inside the arc where it seems they’ve finally realized Johni Broome (13.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG) needs to be the go-to guy. Broome comes over from Morehead State, where he was back-to-back First Team All-OVC and was just as dominant there. Broome’s game has translated from OVC to SEC terrifically because of two things: size translates and the aspects of his game he’s good at have translated. Bully ball of a certain kind works in the SEC.
Broome gets a lot of your standard putbacks and basket cuts in Auburn’s offense, but the reason why he hasn’t been the obvious guy ahead of Green is accidentally revealed by Synergy:
Transition and OREBs: 112 points on 76 possessions (1.47 PPP)
Every other play type combined: 174 points on 226 possessions (0.77 PPP)
When others create the opportunities for Broome, it’s a very efficient offense. When Broome has to create on his own, it can be a struggle. He’s still to be watched in the post, obviously, but this isn’t like battling with Walker Kessler last year.
The co-#1 option is Wendell Green, Jr. (13.8 PPG, 4.4 APG), who is still the volume chucker you recall but has essentially turned into Sharife Cooper in that he’s drawing fouls like a maniac. Green is drawing 6.9 fouls per 40 minutes in SEC play, the second-highest rate in the conference. If you continue our dumb supermarket metaphor from earlier, this is sort of like playing Dollar General Scottie Pippen, Jr.
Green is genuinely a very good shot creator who creates a lot of Auburn’s better shots with his driving ability. The problem is that Green simultaneously believes he is the guy that should be taking all those shots. Green leads Auburn in jump shot attempts, low-quality (as determined by Synergy) shot attempts, made threes, turnovers, and, yes, points. An alarming amount of Bruce’s offense has turned into “go cook them, Wendell,” which frankly sounds awfully familiar to Melvin Goins saying It’s Melvin Goins Time to no one in particular.
Green is shooting 30.4% on all jumpers and 29.2% from deep (though 32.6% for his career). Any jumper by him, in turn, is frankly a process win for the defense. He’s also prone to taking a couple really bad off-balance late-clock jumpers per game, so watch for that. I promise that this does not mean he’s a bad player by any means, as he’s learned to score at the rim pretty well and get to the foul line. But you gotta make shots.
Jaylin Williams (10.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG) is the third double-digit scorer and by far the most efficient. Williams only takes about eight shots a game, but he hits them well (54% 2PT%/37% 3PT%) and rarely turns the ball over. He functions as a large wing in an offense that needs shooting, and despite a wonky wind-up he’s turned into a good shooter over his career.
Only two other guys average more than five a game: Allen Flanigan (9.4 PPG), who has been at Auburn for about nine years now, and K.D. Johnson (8.1 PPG). Flanigan’s promise has always been real but at this point he is who he is: a career 30% deep shooter who doesn’t hold up on the defensive end. Johnson went from being the heart and soul of 2021-22 Auburn to not starting a single game this year; he’s now at 28% from deep in an Auburn uniform.
Basically, this is an atrocious shooting team who is very good the second they go inside the perimeter. As such, I imagine you won’t be surprised to hear they’ve faced more zone defense than 86% of college teams this season. Whether Tennessee pulls that out is anyone’s guess, but this would be a great game for the pack-line defense.
CHART!
Auburn’s defense
Let’s revisit that chart from earlier, but with the ‘off’ (aka, the first two months of the season) included.
So, yeah, I notice something immediately: Auburn’s defense has gotten way worse as of late. This still has all of the Bruce hallmarks - a full-court press after made baskets, lots of 1-4 switching, some occasional junk zone, and a lot of drop coverage that forces the ball handler to make quick decisions. But it’s not what it was last year for a variety of reasons, one of which is that you no longer have a historically elite shot-blocker at the back end.
Auburn’s still going to funnel a lot of shots to the rim to be blocked by Broome or backup Dylan Cardwell, but a key aspect of the defensive decline of late has been two-fold: teams attempting far more threes than normal against Auburn along with Auburn turning into a foul machine. Green and Johnson remain excellent perimeter defenders, but without a Kessler on the back end to eliminate everything without fouling, it’s less efficient on the whole.
Still: top 25 defense, top 5 block rate. You’re gonna have to work.
A huge chunk of opposing shots come at the rim against Auburn; even Synergy, which can be conservative on this front, says Auburn gives up more shots at the rim than 91% of college teams. But they give up 14 points fewer than expected per 100 shots thanks to guys like Broome and Cardwell, and it’s a defense that’s tremendous at stuffing post-ups and basket cuts. The overall defensive decline hasn’t been due to a significantly worse two-point efficiency. It’s risen 3% over the last month, but against a tougher schedule I’d say it’s expected.
The problem is all the fouls. Auburn’s opponents are getting 0.44 free throw attempts for every field goal attempt over the last ten games, which is merely the 14th-worst rate in college basketball. The amazing thing about Kessler was how well he defended without fouling. Broome is still good at it, but at 4.4 fouls/40 he’s simply not as efficient. Cardwell is at 5.8 fouls/40, so no better. Broome’s available minutes have increased because Auburn needs him to play…which means he can’t be as aggressive thanks to Cardwell being a foul machine, which leads to more makes.
Also, while Auburn still shuts down jumpers and catch-and-shoot threes pretty well, they’ve been remarkably lucky to not give up more made threes. They’re at 27.8% on the year allowed; Synergy expects a hit rate 5% above that. Their actual Guarded/Unguarded split on catch-and-shoot threes is actively bad at 51/49. West Virginia pulled off a great win in part because they kept exploiting how many open attempts Auburn can give up on the right day.
So: tons of fouls, a surprising amount of open threes, and no elite rim-protectors at the back end. This is still an excellent unit, but after an unsustainably cold start from three (25% first 11 games), opponents have figured out that this simply doesn’t have the athleticism or high-end talent (or, well, Jabari Smith) that the 2021-22 edition had.
How Tennessee matches up
In the process of writing this this Friday morning, I noticed that something new was trending on Twitter:
And automatically it’s like “well, there you go.”
Expec-
sorry
How Tennessee matches up, for real
The best performances against Auburn’s defense have generally featured three of the following four things:
A solid hit rate (like 35% or better) on 20+ threes;
An avoidance (like 10 or fewer in the game) of non-rim two-point attempts;
A low turnover rate;
A lot of free throw attempts.
So it really comes down to that: can you avoid bad shots, can you hit enough of the good ones, and can you either avoid turnovers or get to the line a lot? Tennessee is about 40% successful on #1, 90ish% on #2, and 50ish% on both of the last two. That roughly adds up to like 2.25 out of 4; if Tennessee can find the additional 0.75 or whatnot they’ll win this by the expected margin.
First and foremost, this is an Auburn team that’s going to funnel you to the paint so you can get your stuff blocked or get fouled. Using a combination of Synergy and Hoop-Math data, 37% of all possessions at the rim against Auburn’s defense either result in a blocked shot (16% of the time) or a foul (21%). On the possessions where shots aren’t blocked, the unblocked FG% is over 65%. It’s easy to say “just don’t get blocked” when you’re behind a keyboard and are a 6’1” white, but, uh, just don’t get blocked. They block more shots at the rim than anyone but Indiana; they also foul more than almost anyone. Might as well take the chance.
There’s also the statistical evidence that Auburn gives up a lot of open threes off of ball-screens. If Zeigler is able to penetrate the paint at all in this game, it may well draw multiple Auburn defenders his way, which should open up the possession for a 4-on-3 power play. If the process is good, that’s all you can ask for. And frankly, it’s time for a Tennessee shooter - any of them - to step up and be the man from downtown.
Defensively, the worst Auburn performances have all followed a similar script: teams walled off everything 10 feet and in and said “hit a jumper.” To boot:
Auburn’s five worst AdjOE performances of the year, per Torvik/Synergy data: 135 jumpers on 277 shot attempts (49% of all shots)
All other Auburn performances: 443 jumpers on 1,017 shot attempts (44% of all shots)
If Tennessee makes Auburn attempt 30 jumpers in this game, they’re going to win unless Wendell Green or Jaylin Williams has an NBA-level shooting performance. Frankly, given what we know about Wendell Green, given what we know about the entire Auburn roster the last two years minus Jabari Smith, it would be pretty surprising to see it happen, especially on the road. I guess the Florida 35% outing was a mild surprise too, but I’m talking, like, Auburn having to shoot 40% or above from three in a season where they’ve shot 21% or worse from deep seven times.
The later you make Auburn go in the clock, the more likely this becomes a reality. If Tennessee thinks zoning is the way to do it, I wouldn’t be surprised and it wouldn’t be an offensive thing to see. If Tennessee thinks they can achieve by their normal means, which has produced one of the highest three-point attempt rates on defense and one of the longer possession lengths, then that’s fine, too. But this is a pretty simple scout: you make Auburn hit jumpers. If they do, congratulations to them. If they don’t, which is the more likely outcome, you win.
Expected starters + rotations
No injuries on either side.
Key matchups
Johni Broome vs. Olivier Nkamhoua/Jonas Aidoo. I actually can’t use Center Roulette here; these two have been responsible for 26 of the 40 minutes per game at center the last three weeks. Both bring a really unique challenge for Broome, who mostly stays in and around the paint. Nkamhoua will draw him out; Aidoo could block his shots.
Wendell Green, Jr. vs. Zakai Zeigler. Two short guys; only one gets the right to be on a silly Seth Davis list. (I guess it’s Green!) Green’s goal is to get to 16 combined field goal + free throw attempts. Or, more accurately: 10 combined field goal + free throw makes. If Zeigler holds him below that, victory.
Jaylin Williams vs. Julian Phillips. 6’8”, 230 versus 6’8”, 200 so maybe this isn’t it, but it’s what it is on paper. Williams is the one guy on Auburn’s team who’s actively encouraged to take mid-range twos; he hits them at nearly 50%. Getting the ball out of his hands in general is a good option.
Three things to watch for
The Make Shots offense. Reader Scott (not my dad Scott) asked for an explanation of what this is. It is simple: when Tennessee makes shots, everyone is happier and no one complains about the offense. To boot, Tennessee is 36-1 from November 2021 to now when making 30% or more of their threes. (The outlier was the Rupp disaster last January.) Basketball is frankly a very simple game: if you make shots, you win. If you don’t, you don’t. Auburn’s 12-0 this year when teams shoot 30% or worse, by the way.
The…uh…the Get Fouled Offense? In the spirit of noticing other trends, Auburn’s 32-3 since November 2021 when the opponent posts a Free Throw Rate (how many FTAs for every FGA) of 40% or lower. Tennessee’s 15-2 when they post an FTR of 40% or above. I think that’s your other number to track. (This roughly converts to Tennessee getting 20+ free throw attempts?)
Wendell vs. Zakai again. Green in three games against Tier A (KenPom’s Quadrant 1) competition: 11 turnovers, 5-for-23 from the field. Zeigler in seven: 20 turnovers (yuck), but 51% 2PT/41% 3PT/91% FT. If Ziggy Stardust shows up Auburn’s in trouble.
Three predictions
There are no fewer than 35 combined free throw attempts;
K.D. Johnson somehow attempts ten shots in 20 minutes of game time, three of which go in;
Tennessee 75, Auburn 65.