Show Me My Opponent, 2023-24: Alabama, Part One
verbal meme: football and basketball shaking hands with "looking for a center" in the middle
Across the bend of history, humans are generally pretty good at picking out their super-villains. Both those for and against have a good ability to recognize villainry. We see this play out in wrestling a lot, but we see it play out in literature perhaps most often. Big Brother, Sauron, Count Dracula, Poseidon, the weird scientist fellow in the Captain Underpants novels; villains one and all. What I’m saying is that, well, I think we know a villain when we see one. Some have sympathy for the villain, some do not. It is ultimately up to you on which side of the aisle you fall on.
In a completely unrelated note, Tennessee welcomes the University of Alabama’s men’s basketball team to town, a program that has done nothing wrong at all in the last year.
Alabama has been controversial this year not for off-court behavior (well, mostly not) but for how they’re breaking metrics like KenPom. A 12-5 team wouldn’t normally be a consensus top-8 group, and yet, here they are, in part thanks to a nasty non-conference slate and a lot of blowouts of lesser opponents. Squint and you might see the BYU or Iowa States people have made fun of; zoom out and you might see that they’re #8 for a reason.
If they can make it through the snow and ice, they’ll play a basketball game against a fellow consensus top-10 team. The supervillain is here. Devise a plan good enough and you can hold him off until the next chapter in the series.
BEHIND THE WALL ($): An honest-to-God preview. Seriously! You won’t believe it. And just for new people, here’s a promo for $22/year because we got eight inches of snow this week, knocking $8 off the price.
Alabama’s offense
Well, buckle up. This is probably the best offense Tennessee will play all season, which says something considering they’ve either played or will play six of the current top 10 offenses by KenPom. After years of merely finishing around 16th-37th in the offensive rankings, Nate Oats said screw it and went all in on crafting possibly the best shooting backcourt in America. Will they shoot 40% from deep for the entire season? Probably not, because the post-line extension record for 3PT% on a >45% 3PA is 38%, but hey. That’s still really good and really scary.
If you’ve somehow forgotten the Alabama system, there are three main components:
No midrange. Alabama generally leads or is among the top five in the nation in Rim and Three Rate; the goal is to turn every game into a math equation. If Alabama can get better shot processes than you, they can win the game even with lesser shot making.
Everything flows downhill. The threes are the headliners, but the Alabama system doesn’t work without guards and wings that can get downhill and draw a lot of attention. Alabama wants paint touches, but not in the same way you generally think of getting it to the post. The guard’s goal is to get two feet in the paint, and then it’s on you to make the decision: do you devote one resource and live with the results? Or do you devote a second resource and let the guard toss it out for an open three?
Once things flow downhill, more shots are open. Teams overreact to Alabama’s guards pretty frequently, but it’s fair because they are that good. What happens is this: an overreaction leads to the guard only having to get as deep as the free throw line to generate an open three on the wing.
But, again, this doesn’t work without terrific guard play. It didn’t work super flawlessly with Jahvon Quinerly at point, for example. With the potential SEC Player of the Year running the show, it looks better than it ever has before.
Mark Sears (19.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 48% 3PT) is at worst in contention alongside Johni Broome and Dalton Knecht for the award every SEC player dreams of winning. Some of it feels unsustainable. If a career 36% shooter continues to shoot 48% from three, then I think you just have to tip the cap. But the sustainable thing is pretty obvious: he’s extremely in control of the offense.
A lot of Alabama’s actions start with a simple pick-and-roll up top, and the pace Sears runs these with is a key reason why the offense works as well as it does. Despite leading the team in scoring and being a score-first PG, he knows he can create for others just as well. Watch how he reads this situation brilliantly and feeds it to Rylan Griffen (10.4 PPG, 38% 3PT) for an open three.
But you can’t get it all done by yourself. What do you do? You go add a 20 PPG scorer from the CAA in Aaron Estrada (13.5 PPG), who’s evolved into Bama’s #2 option offensively. Estrada’s skillset is quite different from Sears, but the two mesh well. For one, he’s one of a group of like three guys in Oats’ entire career who’s allowed to take midrange jumpers and runners. Is he good at hitting them? No, but hey. He’s able to do this because he’s the best pullup shooter on the team.
Together, this is a frightening group to deal with. There’s a group of 20 high-major players in America right now with a 110+ Offensive Rating (on 20% or higher Usage), 40+ makes at the rim, and 25+ made threes. The only team with multiple players who fit this type: Alabama. You’re dealing with two of arguably the 20 best scoring guards in the nation.
There are two other plus spots offensively, though only one takes a high amount of shots. Grant Nelson (12.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) isn’t shooting well, sitting at just 28% from three this season, but he’s a 6’11” guy who can take and hit that shot. Because of problems we’ll get into he’s currently their starting center, but the number of starting centers in America with 30+ possessions as the pick-and-roll ball handler, per Synergy is…small. It’s very small.
Griffen is the other. He’s the rare piece who’s a dominant rim figure and a good shooter. He’s mostly a role player for now, but again, the number of guys in America who are shooting 70% on twos and are above water from three is very small. They also have backup guard Latrell Wrightsell, currently shooting 45% from three. Alabama’s quite talented, so lock in.
So: this is the best offense in America. Naturally, it’s time to criticize. The key here is that for whatever reason, Alabama has yet to find a 5 that can stick, which is both scary and a potential future limitation. They are trying six different guys at the 5 right now, none of whom is getting more than 11 minutes a game at that spot. The best offensive option is probably 6’10” freshman Sam Walters (49% 3PT), but he’s horrendous on defense. The best defensive piece is Mohamed Wague, but he’s a relatively poor offensive player. They’ve also ran out Nelson at center a lot lately, which is not ideal for their defense.
Aside from that, you’re picking at nits. Estrada has some turnover issues, which can be a limitation, and he hasn’t held up well to contact inside the perimeter against better comp. Nelson’s troublesome shooting has held him back at times. Again, they don’t have a 4. But Sears is playing like a first-team All-American, there are four legitimate plus-plus offensive pieces, and when your biggest problem is that only four of your five starters are shredding and transcending offensively, you don’t have real problems.
CHART!
Alabama’s defense
Now for the part you’ve all been waiting for for reassurance! This, quite frankly, sucks. Through the first four years of Oats, Alabama has alternated between Godly defenses that force a billion jumpers with porous defenses that can’t stop anything headed downhill. This is the latter. KenPom only ranks it 63rd, so it’s better than the 2019-20 and 2021-22 units, but that’s with some good luck on the 3PT% front and the fifth-toughest offensive schedule faced in the nation. Torvik’s ratings, in the nine games against top 100 competition, have this defense as 116th-best.
There’s a lot of ways to do this, but probably the clearest Sign O’ the Times is their struggles against ball screens.
2022-23: 95th-percentile defense against all ball screens, 70th-percentile against ball-handlers specifically
2023-24: 60th-percentile defense against all ball screens, 13th-percentile against ball-handlers specifically
There’s no inherent right or wrong way to defend ball screens (stolen from here), but if you’re going to run drop coverage like Alabama does, you need to have a big man capable of blocking lots of shots who isn’t much of a mover. Let’s take 2022-23 for example. Alabama cycled through some various options at the 4 and 5 but generally settled on Noah Clowney and Charles Bediako. Bediako finished the year 41st nationally in Block%; Clowney was lower but a more mobile big.
Putting either in a ball screen was generally a poor idea. The below chart is via CBB Analytics; while I think their data can be imperfect it’s generally a good way to see some insight into what type of shots are getting forced. Alabama still allowed shots at the rim but you’re seeing a lot of pullups in the paint as well as a plentiful batch of midrange twos.
This is because Bediako was terrific at playing these screens and forcing the guards into some very tough decisions. Alabama forced more runners and floaters than any other team in basketball last year in no small part thanks to Bediako.
In 2023-24, Alabama no longer has Bediako or Clowney. Clowney was taken as a multi-year project but came in well above expectation, heading off to the NBA. If he’d been as anticipated he’d probably be the starter at the 4, but alas. Alabama’s new frontcourt in preseason was anticipated to be Nelson at the 4 and Nick Pringle at the 5. That’s still technically the starting pair, but because Pringle is a foul machine (5.9 per 40), he barely scraps to 15 MPG. The other erstwhile starting frontcourt piece was Mohamed Wague, who has played 21 total minutes in Alabama’s four SEC games.
What this means is that Nelson is sort of the frontcourt piece at the moment, which is a gigantic problem for the Alabama defensive equation. I have no hate for Nelson, a fine enough player, but at no point did Alabama get him because they thought of him as a rim protector. It would be like Tennessee recruiting Dalton Knecht because they thought he could be Kawhi Leonard.
Anyway, this is important because of where Nelson came from. The Summit League, God bless it, is not and never will be known for its defense. It regularly ranks 1st or 2nd in offensive efficiency and among the bottom three of all conferences in Block%. This is useful knowledge for you, because among the ten starting centers in the Summit League last year, Nelson ranked fifth in Block%. In the Summit League. Not the SEC.
Take all that in, then look at the below shot chart.
Alabama is no longer forcing the most runners of anyone in America. In fact, they’re not even in the top 100 of the stat right now. When they do, Nelson neither has the length nor the interest to be super aggressive, because he is the literal only plus offensive piece on the entire team in the frontcourt. (Quick reminder that Clowney was way better than you remember. And that Alabama could go ‘small’ with Brandon Miller at the 4.) With all that in mind, the action Alabama has been best at defending over the years - and the most-run action in the entire sport of basketball - is now their Achilles heel.
Nelson does not get put in ball screens the most of anyone; that would be Pringle. But even Pringle is a much worse defender than either Clowney or Bediako were. Lineups with Pringle at center are giving up an opponent-adjusted 1.004 PPP. Lineups with Mohamed Wague are better, but commit 9 more fouls per 100 possessions. Lineups with Nelson at center are a disaster. Lineups with various freshmen are better, but they’re freshmen in this defense so their foul rates are bonkers. Alabama is facing questions with no good answers. Really, the only good answer is the obvious one: keep scoring 90.
How Tennessee matches up
I think good and bad schedule timing is a greater factor in college hoops than most would like to think. I’ve seen both sides of the coin. For instance, it was pretty bad schedule timing for Tennessee to play North Carolina almost immediately after playing Purdue and Kansas. It was also pretty good schedule timing for them to catch Illinois all of four days after a 40-minute rage in the cage with Florida Atlantic. That’s just how it goes in a 30+ game season.
But this boils down more than who a team just played or when. Tennessee viewers over the last couple of weeks have noticed the same thing I’ve noticed, which is that Tennessee has turned to the pick-and-roll as its base set after years of aversion. Part of this is obviously because they have a potential first-round Draft pick running the show now in Knecht, but part of it is because it is a crazy dangerous set for this specific version of Tennessee. Because:
If you play drop against either main ball-handler (Zakai Zeigler or Knecht), you run the risk of giving up a wide-open jumper to a pair of dangerous shooters.
If you blitz the screen, or even just provide a hard-hedge, you run the risk of Knecht or Zeigler passing out of it quickly to create a 4-on-3 offensive power play.
If you’re indecisive or play at the level of the screen, Jonas Aidoo has greatly improved his ability to slip and/or roll off of the screen for an easy two points.
At least offensively, this feels like a good schedule spot for Tennessee. Alabama’s been able to remedy some of their issues with ball-handlers by getting a little more aggressive, but what it’s done is open the latter two problems there. Alabama can’t defend a slip or a roll either, so if they commit back to drop, then you run into the issues they already faced earlier in the year.
In the last four games alone Tennessee’s set season records for points scored off of the P&R Roll Man play type (11) and P&R Ball Handler (20), per Synergy. Those are also Barnes-era highs dating back to 2016, which should tell you that Tennessee does appear to be turning over a new leaf that teams haven’t adjusted for yet. What a perfect time to do it.
Defensively…toughest test of the year? I’d argue it is. Tennessee is going to be forced into playing the variance game a bit here. Considering Alabama is almost precisely as good off the dribble as they are catching and shooting, I wouldn’t suggest forcing them into a ton of dribble jumpers. I also don’t want them heading downhill nonstop, so it’s a tough one to figure out.
Arguably the best option here is simply stuffing the initial action and not overcommitting resources. I guess it boils down to this: as a coach, you can probably live with 6’1” and 6’3” guards going up against your 6’11” center at the rim. Aidoo is a premier rim protector in America, and it’s worth noting that a lesser version of the Alabama offense produced a 2PT% of just 32% with Aidoo on the court last season. He’s the X-factor, the guy who Tennessee can funnel things to and live with the results.
At its core, this is a tremendous battle between two SEC titans and two very different approaches to winning. Tennessee should have a serious advantage on the offensive end; as has been the case in years past, it’s up to their defense to find enough mini-advantages to bring this one home.
Expected starters + rotations
Alabama:
Wrightsell and Stevenson are first off the bench and generally come in to replace Griffen and Pringle, respectively. Nelson gets taken off sometime after the first media timeout for Walters. Closing lineup has been a smallball run of Sears, Estrada, Wrightsell, Griffen, and Nelson. It will not surprise you to hear that is tremendous on offense (1.286 PPP) and tremendously bad on defense (1.104 PPP).
Tennessee:
Same five, no real changes. Of note is that Mashack and Gainey have begun coming in together (generally for Knecht/Vescovi) but Dilione now enters around the midway mark of the first half.
Key matchups
Mark Sears vs. Zakai Zeigler. FWIW there’s a gigantic split in Zeigler’s favor in terms of on-court production versus off against top-75 competition. The same cannot be said for Sears, but his shooting is so good right now that it may not matter. This is a titanic battle.
Aaron Estrada vs. Santiago Vescovi. Against high-end comp Estrada’s struggled a good bit particularly inside the perimeter; he can’t get to the rim as easily and doesn’t finish very well through contact. That could be quite massive in a game where Alabama needs both he and Sears to score 20+ in all likelihood. Note: of Alabama’s main five guys I think Estrada is the best/least-bad defender.
Grant Nelson vs. Josiah-Jordan James. Unusual matchup for James, who’ll be giving up a lot in terms of height, but in games like these Nelson has tended to hang on the perimeter for a large chunk of time. I’ve said my bit on Nelson’s defense, which I think is not good.
Three things to watch for
Turnovers. This has been surprisingly prescient in determining outcomes of reasonably equal Alabama games otherwise. Against SEC competition under Oats, Alabama is 18-14 when committing 15+ turnovers; they’re 31-9 otherwise. That may be relevant against a Tennessee team who forced 15+ turnovers against Purdue and Kansas, arguably the two best teams they’ve played.
…the 2PT% battle? I’m not sure how to frame this. I guess the battle of the paint, more accurately. Anyway: Alabama is 22-25 under Oats when they have a worse 2PT% than their opponent and 82-22 when they top them. Translation: if Tennessee has the same levels of success other high-end competition has had in the paint against Alabama it’s going to be pretty hard to overcome.
You guessed it. The battle of threes, as happens in every Alabama game. This can go horribly wrong, as it did against Creighton (4-22 in a 3-point loss) or Arizona (8-40 in a 13-point loss), but if they’re hitting at a 40%+ clip they’re borderline unbeatable. They’re 38-3 under Oats when they hit 40% or more of their threes. It sounds insane, but keep them in the 30s or lower and you have your shot.
Three predictions
Alabama posts a bottom-three 2PT% of the season (48% or worse) but hits enough threes to hang around for a full 40;
Both teams crack 1.1 points per possession in the best game of the SEC season to date;
Tennessee 82, Alabama 77.
Hey, if you’re still reading this, 1. Thanks; 2. Send it to a friend. This is a pretty big game and I’d like as many eyeballs on this preview as possible. Thanks!