Show Me My Opponent, 2023-24: Auburn
Just one bite
Out of protest, no más AP Poll going forward. If you have people like these voting, it’s not better than a computer. Sorry!
Well, now the season begins. This is the time of the year where people hit a cliche like “every game is its own season” and it isn’t that absurd. But, well, this is the time of year for a four-game season to end your 31-game slate.
Per a quick perusal on Torvik, this is the single most difficult rest-of-season schedule for any team in America, which tracks. Tennessee is about to play their two SEC title rivals, a team that owns the one home loss Tennessee has this year, and perennial villain Kentucky, who just dumped 117 points on KenPom #7. It’s such that a 3-1 record would be overachieving the analytical expected record. The expected record for the #6 team in KenPom AKA the #4 team in the AP. That’s how hard it is.
The next week is gonna do a lot of deciding for an indecisive conference.
Frankly, it’s all one could ask for: you have a chance to assert yourself in a race where you’re tied with a team you beat by 20 at your house and are about to play a team they beat a month ago. This is the Game of the Week of the Year, which will be replaced by the Game of the Weekend of the Year in three days. One team wants a 1 seed and their second conference title in 16 years; the other is motivated by blood and menace and the possibility of their third in seven. Let’s have some fun.
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Auburn’s offense
Lot of green there! Not what you’re always wanting to see, or so I’ve heard. Then again, if you’re our pal Jerry Hinnen you probably love this chart almost as much as you love the defensive one.
The way Auburn does their thing is a hair different than what you probably remember from Peak Pearl. The Final Four team took nearly half of their shots from three and was extraordinarily guard-oriented. This one still takes threes, but is much more inclined to head downhill and their two best players when healthy are 6’10” and 6’8”. The four guards that get starter-ish minutes rank 4th-7th on the team in Usage Rate. So, more than you’re probably used to, this is an Auburn team that wants dunks first, layups second, and threes third.
Auburn also has the largest rotation in the league and affords 44% of their minutes to their bench, so you’re going to have to adjust to 10 PPG being pretty decent, or a 16 PPG/8.6 RPG statline being that of someone currently ranked fourth nationally in KenPom’s Player of the Year standings. You’re already well aware of Johni Broome (59% 2PT, 37% 3PT), who has arguably been the only player that can touch Dalton Knecht’s SEC-play impact.
Last year, I was able to say that Tennessee’s fix was to shove this guy out of the post and give up anything that wasn’t a layup. I guess that’s still somewhat true, as Broome averages 1.3 points per shot on attempts at the rim and 0.95 per shot everywhere else. But there’s been a subtle, deeply effective change in Broome’s game this year: he is a legitimately very good shooter in his fourth year of college ball. He’s sitting at 36% on threes this season and only ranks behind Alabama’s Grant Nelson/Jarin Stevenson in terms of made threes by a player 6’10” or taller in the SEC.
This is to go with his standard brand of being a bully in the post and being nigh-impossible to cover on dumpoffs. Auburn’s guards are problematic, but they draw enough attention to free Broome up for an array of cuts and rebounds that he gobbles up points/fouls on.
He’s reached the point of being a guy you can’t sag off of, which is a problem because he remains a highly effective finisher. But: it’s a game where you pick your poison. At the rim he’s at 1.3 PPS; on hook shots, it’s 0.81. On jumpers, 1.08. He also hasn’t been terribly efficient on post-ups this year, shooting just 43% on them. His turnover rate flies up the charts when doubled and pressured, too. So why is he the #4 player in the KPOTY ranks? Because stopping a 6’10”, 240 lb. bowling ball is easier said than done, especially one that shoots 37% from three, 59% from two, dominates the boards, and is likely the frontrunner for SEC Defensive Player of the Year.
Normally, the #2 guy is Jaylin Williams (13 PPG, 66% 2PT, 41% 3PT), a wonderfully efficient forward who performs his role perfectly. Williams got injured against Kentucky and is doubtful to play here, though. His role is covered by a variety of options, but the best is by far Chad Baker-Mazara (10.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG). Don’t let the counting stats fool you. This guy rocks. He’s a 6’7” limbfest shooting 42% on threes, with a high hit rate on catch-and-shooters (44%) and pull-ups (36%).
The scary Baker-Mazara thing, for me, is his tremendous efficiency as a ball-handler. Synergy has him at 1.23 PPP on just 94 possessions as the main ball-handler, a surprisingly good creator for others as well as himself. He’s not a great finisher (59% at the rim, per Synergy, or 57th-percentile) but as a shooter, he’s extremely fearsome. Along with Tre Donaldson, he’s one of two players Pearl lets take midrange jumpers. A must-cover at all times when on the court.
Here is a graphic. It’s Auburn’s roster sorted by Torvik’s PRPG! stat, which is essentially Points Above Replacement.
I can count three things that should stand out to you.
YES K.D. JOHNSON IS STILL HERE STOP ACTING SURPRISED. I mean it’s game 27 or whatever. You didn’t know this?
There are two legitimate plus scoring options. Everyone else is either pedestrian, forgettable, or some mix of the two.
The four best players by this metric are all frontcourt players.
Which leads us to the backcourt four-pack of Donaldson, Aden Holloway, Denver Jones, and, yes, our man K.D. Johnson. Holloway leads the way at 8.3 PPG and is co-point guard with Donaldson (6.9 PPG, 3.2 APG). Holloway sits at 31% on twos, which is merely the fifth-worst 2PT% by any player with 60+ two-point attempts in the SEC since 2007. He’s a much better finisher (63% rim) and is a threat all over the court (48% midrange, 37% three), but has serious turnover issues. Holloway is arguably more impactful on offense thanks to a much lower TO%, but Donaldson is far superior on D.
At the 2, it’s Jones (7.9 PPG) and Johnson (7.5 PPG). Jones came in from the Sun Belt and has arguably underperformed, thanks to a horrific 47% FG% at the rim. He’s still a terrific shooter, but has merged more into a role player than the semi-star we hoped for. Johnson remains the most chaotic, enigmatic player the SEC has seen in a lifetime, a true boom-or-bust not just in one game but on any given possession. Johnson is fearless on both ends to a fault; he draws a lot of fouls and commits a lot on defense. Any Johnson jumper should be celebrated, as he sits at 0.81 PPS on these versus 1.0 PPS on everything else.
The other rotation pieces all have limited roles. Dylan Cardwell is the backup center who mostly dunks off of dumpoffs or rebounds. Chaney Johnson (formerly of Alabama-Huntsville) is the rare Just A Slasher, though with the caveat that he was an okay jump shooter at the D2 level. Chris Moore is unbelievably still here. He and Lior Berman are like two unkillable ants.
A great frontcourt, a sputtering backcourt; this usually leads to fairly low variance. And yet, here’s Auburn. They have four performances of 1.33 PPP or better this year. They also have four of 0.95 PPP or worse. Only one other Big Six team, Baylor, can say the same. The average 3PT% game-over-game variance, to one standard deviation, is 12.4%. Anything from 21% to 46% from three is rational and normal. In a 70-possession game, anything from 70 points to 92 is rational and normal. It only makes sense that the most chaotic offense of 2024 has the most chaotic player and most chaotic Twitter of any sitting HC.
CHART!
Auburn’s defense
Compared to the offense, this is a beacon of calm. Auburn does a better job of forcing a bad first shot than almost anyone else in the nation, and they have a relatively unique formula of doing it.
Whereas everyone else wants you to take midrange twos, Auburn happily funnels you to the rim. This leads to the 7th-highest Block% in America and a remarkably high number of fouls by basically everyone who isn’t a guard or Jaylin Williams. This also leads to a lot of transition opportunities the other way. When you have a legitimate 10-man rotation, you can play as aggressively as this particular Tigers team does. Squint and you can see a bit of Pearl’s Elite Eight defense from 2009-10 in it.
At its best, these guys are great at snuffing out transition opportunities and forcing you into longer half-court sets. 73% of opponent possessions last 11+ seconds or longer, per CBB Analytics. As frustrating as the guards can be offensively, that’s how good they can be on the other end of the court. Opponents have largely found no success against Auburn’s ball-screen coverage, which mixes it up a good bit but largely plays back. Getting downhill against these guys is actually ill-advised, whether it’s Broome or Cardwell on the back end to clean it up.
As such, even though Auburn is 2-6 against Quadrant 1 opponents the defense hasn’t often felt at fault. They did a nice job holding the impossible Kentucky offense to 70 and held Alabama’s similarly explosive group to 81 on 77 possessions. No one has really gotten them yet, unless you could Ole Miss scoring 77 on 69 possessions as a get. Even if opponents do find some success at the rim, it’s not without a remarkable amount of physicality, the likes of which really isn’t seen elsewhere in the SEC outside of Tennessee.
Broome and Caldwell are obviously huge, but for all the hate the guy gets, Johnson is terrific on the perimeter (4.1% Steal%, #3 in the SEC). I also truly cannot get enough of Baker-Mazara, a guy who’s figured his role out so well this year. Auburn forces turnovers on 20% of possessions (17% without) and holds opponents to a 42% 2PT% (44% without) with him on the court, per Hoop-Explorer.
Finding a thing these guys don’t do well feels like nit-picking, but part of the reason you scout is to pick nits. Auburn is tremendous at rushing shooters off the three-point line and only gives up 14.8 catch-and-shoot looks a night (8th-percentile in terms of usage), but that can result in a smart player dribbling into an open 17-footer. Auburn is super aggressive down low, but the block-chasing can lead to them giving up dumpoffs and lob plays.
Mostly, my concern is the fouls. Auburn gets away with it by playing 10 men when healthy, but with Williams out, their best frontcourt non-fouler won’t be playing. Six of the remaining nine average a shocking 4.0 fouls per 40, with four (CBM, Johnson, other Johnson, Cardwell) averaging 4.5 or higher. K.D. sits at 5.6/40, which is both a reflection of how aggression can be good and bad at the same time.
Various areas of alarm exist, few of them shocking, but I do remain alarmed at just how easily Auburn fouls in transition. Per Synergy, they’ve given up 118 free throw attempts off of a transition play versus 219 attempts, which is a free throw rate of 54%. The Hoop-Explorer data versus top 100 teams is actually worse, stating Auburn sits at a FT Rate of 70%. Part of slowing a team down can just be beating the snot out of them, but Auburn is a little liberal with their application. Kentucky and Florida each generated 10 free throw attempts off of shooting fouls in transition, per Synergy.
To me, that’s the key: you need to push the pace early and often. Does Auburn have a particular style they cannot win against? No. I do find it notable, however, that Auburn is 1-4 against top-40 offenses, with four of those games against teams in the top 50 of offensive pace. That, combined with some struggles in defensive rebounding because of the level of effort the center has to put in on many a possession, could be crucial to an Auburn road ‘upset’ or a standard-fare Tennessee home win.
How Tennessee matches up
Aside from a theoretical Houston/Tennessee game this has the chance to be the bloodiest game of the year. This is a handsy Tennessee team versus a handsy Auburn team, both of whom foul a good bit and both of whom would rather bust your lip than give up an open layup. If we, the viewers, get out of this game without some sort of cut or awful-looking bruise I will be stunned.
The teams that have had the most access against Auburn have been the ones least afraid of the blood. Auburn is 2-3 in games where they’ve given up more than 32 points in the paint. App State, who benefitted hugely from Auburn shooting 3-27 from three, is the only team to not beat Auburn without at least cracking 30. Some of those are legitimate layups and dunks, but a healthy portion are forcing the issue and drawing foul after foul.
Of all the things Auburn does well defensively, strangely, one isn’t defending post-ups. The Tigers sit in the 45th-percentile defensively against post-ups, per Synergy, probably because they rank 301st in FT Rate on these. Unsurprisingly to the average Tennessee fan, it’s not Jonas Aidoo you would expect to exploit this but rather Tobe Awaka and Dalton Knecht. Awaka in particular has been on a heater in the post as of late, and given his complete willingness to meet anyone’s level of aggression I’d give him a lot of run here.
I’d also note some fairly obvious things that can happen to rim-funneling teams like this. Auburn is middling at ISO defense (48th-percentile), with Broome faring quite well but Holloway and other guards not so much. I love the threes they force in general, but like any team they’ll give some up. Lastly: you gotta play fast off of misses and turnovers. With Williams likely unavailable Tennessee should have a conditioning edge in this game and it’s statistically proven Auburn commits far more fouls in transition.
The defensive battle is two-fold. Broome was forgettable at Tennessee last year (11 points, 9 rebounds, 4 fouls), but then again so was literally everyone who graced the court. At home, he drew fouls and was a real factor as a rim protector. I think Broome is at his scariest down low, not so much as a true post dominator but a second-chance creator and overall Problem™ to deal with. The key with Broome is forcing him to his right, where he’s much less comfortable. Out of a possible 59 post-ups, he’s turned right on 13 of them. Out of a possible 32 drives, he’s gone right seven times. Make him finish with his off-hand.
Outside of that, given 1.1 PPS on twos versus 1.02 on threes maybe you want variance. (The only guys I would 100% run off the line are Baker-Mazara and Denver Jones. Broome scares me too much inside to overcompensate for essentially one made three per game.) Inducing more threes is dangerous, because Auburn’s made 10+ threes in nine games. It’s also potentially very good, because they’ve made six or fewer threes in 10 games and went 5-5.
Mostly, just run these guys out of catch-and-shoots. As a team, Auburn shoots 35.7% on spot-up threes and 28.4% on pull-ups. Pretty simple equation to me. Auburn will try to do the same thing, as Tennessee’s splits are 35% spot-up/31% pull-up, but Tennessee’s guards/wings can drive and finish. Can Auburn’s?
Expected starters + rotations
Auburn:
Sans Williams they’ve let Chaney Johnson handle a ton of minutes at the 4, but that doesn’t seem feasible with that huge foul number. I’d guess all of Baker-Mazara/Moore/Lior Berman get some minutes there. Backcourt has no discernible pairing trends though Holloway/Jones is the most used.
Tennessee:
No changes.
Key matchups
Johni Broome vs. Jonas Aidoo. Last year’s results need the context of Aidoo needing to split time with Uros Plavsic and Olivier Nkamhoua at the 5, but you can only give so much context for 4 points in 47 minutes across two games. Aidoo has scored 10+ in six of the last seven and sorely needs another good game here.
Chad Baker-Mazara vs. Dalton Knecht. In the first post-Williams game, Bruce chose to start and play Chaney Johnson at the 4 for 40 minutes. I would imagine Josiah-Jordan James (and Mashack) get a heavy dose of this matchup, too, but this is really a test if the 180 lb. Baker-Mazara can hang with Knecht without committing a boatload of fouls.
Aden Holloway vs. Zakai Zeigler. Finding a third key matchup is rough given Auburn’s makeup but this makes the most sense. Zeigler has played at a First Team All-SEC level for pretty much the entirety of conference play. Is there any Auburn guard that can step up to be on that level?
Three things to watch for
Where the non-Broome points come from. Especially in the post-Williams world, this is crucial. Broome posted a 34% Usage on Saturday against Georgia. Against top-100 competition in lineups without Williams, Broome’s averaged a 35% Usage Rate. That’s fine if you’re cooking at a Knecht level, but if you become too reliant on one guy, is there anyone else who’s capable of stepping up? Auburn’s 97 points were heavily inflated by a 14-26 hit rate from three, which doesn’t seem likely to repeat. Worth noting that in Broome’s six worst games by efficiency his average Usage% was 33%.
Where the non-Knecht points come from. This is the same thing but for Tennessee. Knecht has balled out versus top 100 competition all year, but he can’t do it all. Your target number: 55 or more points by the non-Knecht players. When that happens, Tennessee is 18-1. (3-5 otherwise.)
Who hits more threes. I mean, this is #6 in 2PT% defense at #2. The number of easy twos in this game is likely to be minimal. Auburn has shot 26% or worse ten times and is 5-5; Tennessee’s floor is higher but their ceiling is lower. They’re a perfect 16-0 when shooting 33% or better from deep. If either team hits 40% in this game they’re winning.
Three predictions
Tennessee generates a small-but-notable offensive rebound advantage of +3 or more;
Zakai Zeigler puts together a Zakai Zeigler statline, something like 13 points/8 assists/4 steals;
Tennessee 77, Auburn 70.