Show Me My Opponent, 2023-24: Wisconsin
Do not feed the Trohl
Dating back to apparently early 2013, the guys at MGoBlog were fed up with Michigan basketball’s road affairs at Wisconsin. Honestly, this reaction was fair. After that 2013 game, in which Ben Brust hit an utter prayer from half-court to send the game to overtime and help a middling Wisconsin team win, these were Michigan’s 11 most recent results in Madison.
Since that game Michigan is now a sterling 3-5 in their last 8 at Madison, which is fair given they’ve been the underdog in five of those. Calling the Kohl Center the Trohl Center has stuck with me forever though, and it continues to apply just outside of the bounds of the Beilein/Howard program. Wisconsin has yet to have a single season under HC Greg Gard (peak of 14th) that sees them ranked as highly as KenPom as they were in all of Bo Ryan’s final six seasons (low of 12th). They cannot shoot a basketball. They do not make any game more enjoyable to watch. Nothing about what they do is pleasant.
And yet. This is a ranking of the teams with the most wins in close games (<6 points or OT) since 2018-19.
I mean.
Wisconsin has thirty losses by 7+ points over the last five seasons. Given that Wisconsin as a whole has performed at the level of the 20th-best team since 2018, we would expect them to be like 40-34 or something. Maybe 41-33. 47-27 is a Kansas-level performance, as evidenced by the fact Kansas is the only team with a larger Wins Above Bubble in close games over that time span.
Wisconsin’s home-court advantage as a whole has not been what it once was, as evidenced by 19 home losses over the last five seasons. Even their most frequent Big Ten foes have been able to escape the Trohls, with Northwestern and Rutgers pulling off wins there last season. But, well, they burn people every single year. Do not get in a close game with these guys. Do not feed the Trohls. DO NOT ENGAGE
BELOW THE LINE (THIS ONE IS FREE!): One dreams of a normal basketball game
Wisconsin’s offense
All stats from 2022-23 EXCEPT for the topline AdjO number. In this case it’s probably fine given that 92% of Wisconsin’s roster is still there.
Little about watching this is pleasurable for anyone, ever. Wisconsin’s peak finish - peak! - in eFG% the last six years is 138th. The last two years they’ve finished 276th and 291st, and the only thing holding them back from total obscurity was a once-in-a-lifetime luckfart run in 2021-22 where they went 15-2 in close games. At least at that time, Wisconsin had future lottery pick Johnny Davis. This team has a seven-footer with a great hook shot, a guard or two that can rip it, and little else. (PARODY) (SATIRE)
Alas, it is not as if Tennessee has been the epitome of sexy basketball, either. We trudge on. The main guy last year, and the guy I still think is the guy this year, is Steven Crowl (12.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG). Crowl is a seven-footer that can shoot threes (27-88 last year) and is a pretty good passer, which sets him apart as a threat, but he is genuinely really good in the post. Only 13 players in CBB were responsible for more post points in 2022-23 than Crowl, and his ability to shoot and drive is quite good for such a tall stiff. Among the 73 players who had at least 200 post-up possessions last year, per Synergy, Crowl ranked 12th-best in efficiency and fourth among Big Six bigs.
One thing worth noting, though, is that while Crowl does have a variety of moves he mostly goes to the hook shot. Only five players in the entire sport attempted more hook shots last year, and Crowl heavily favors going over his left shoulder (he’s right-handed) versus his right. If Tennessee can manage to push him away from the basket it’ll help, but it’s easier said than done, as Big Ten teams have found out.
The original plan here was to cover one guard that I was high on offensively, but a second guy broke out on Monday while the first guard is questionable for this game. Might as well cover the guy I know is available. AJ Storr (8.8 PPG, 40% 3PT ‘22-23 St. John’s) was a Big East First Team All-Freshman last season before his coach got fired. A former Top 100 RSCI recruit, Storr hit the portal and transferred closer to home in Wisconsin (originally from Rockford, IL).
I thought Storr was a pretty good piece last year at St. John’s, but there’s always the question of stuff like “can a guy who played on a bad team replicate that on a good one” and “is it really a good thing that Rick Pitino didn’t want him.” Through all of one game the answer appears to be that Wisconsin indeed got a good player, a 6’7” mismatch at small forward who can play all of 2-4 if needed.
Predictably, having singled out the 40% 3PT aspect, I’m more interested in this guy’s shooting. At 6’7”, he can shoot over basically anyone Tennessee throws at him 1-4 defensively, and I do think he presents a potential problem as Wisconsin’s own Dalton Knecht figure.
Now, while Wisconsin did shoot an insane 63% from three with Storr on the floor Monday, that won’t be replicable here. More noteworthy is that Wisconsin scored a truly bonkers 74 points on 46 possessions with him out there; that figure fell to 31 points in the 32 possessions he was off. The reverse effect existed at SJU last winter, but that could be chalked up to playing on a bad team and being a freshman. He’s a real worry.
But: beyond Crowl and Storr, there’s no guarantees. I love Connor Essegian, who confusingly started Monday night on the bench, but after just five minutes he picked up a back injury and appears to be a true 50/50 for this contest. If Essegian can go that does matter, because he was Wisconsin’s best non-Crowl player on offense last season. If not, then Wisconsin has to find minutes from these guys:
Max Klesmit, a very low-usage Wofford transfer that shot 38% from three last year but rates as a below-average finisher and mostly hangs on the perimeter. He did start Monday, for the record.
Isaac Lindsey, a junior who has barely played through two years at Wisconsin.
John Blackwell, a true freshman who rates as a below-average offensive player in general but who our special guest really loves.
That’s not optimal. Wisconsin does have the benefit of falling back on a three-year starter at point in Chucky Hepburn (12.2 PPG, 2.8 APG ‘22-23), who has quality 3PT shooting numbers at 41% but is an atrocious 36% shooter from two. Hepburn loves to isolate himself on a defender or use a ball screen to eventually pull up for a jumper that genuinely could have any imaginable result. He would drive me insane if I were a Wisconsin fan, but alas.
The fifth starter is Tyler Wahl (11.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG ‘22-23), who would actually drive me insane if all I watched was Big Ten basketball. Here is a list of last year’s least efficient Big Six players, with a minimum 25% Usage.
Great company to be in. For reasons I’ll never understand Wisconsin kept force-feeding Wahl in the post last year despite mounting evidence that Crowl was far, far better as a post option. He cannot shoot (13-61 last year), he cannot hit hook shots (24-72), and for a 6’9” guy a 54.5% FG% at the rim is underwhelming. (I think the Mendoza line here is 60%+. You’re 6’9”!) Predictably, he took five shots in 13 minutes Monday, committed three turnovers, and racked up four fouls.
Overall, I think there is some evidence to declare this an improved Wisconsin offense. But! I just need more data. Wisconsin shot 57% on jumpers against Arkansas State and 74% at the rim. The 74% figure is probably a product of some Wisconsin improvement and a lot of ASU not having a real center. The jumpers…
I mean, maybe! But this is the same team that shot 32.7% on jumpers over a full season a year ago (29th-percentile in D-1) and never topped a 54% figure in any one game. In fact, they did not top 40% on jumpers in any of the final 20 games they played. ShotQuality’s numbers do show improved shot selection (largely because Wisconsin got 52% of all shots at the rim), but the spacing appears to actually be worse, possibly because Wisconsin’s frontcourt options, all juniors/seniors are a combined 97-377 (25.7%) from deep in their careers. I’ll believe a sea change when I see one.
CHART!
Wisconsin’s defense
All stats from 2022-23 EXCEPT for the topline AdjD number.
Whew! Well, now that you got the more inherently intriguing unit out of the way, here’s the unit that is the exact same it has been my entire life. Every Wisconsin defense ever does the same five things:
Protects the boards extremely well.
Never fouls.
Forces a lot of one-on-one finishes and funnels a lot to the midrange.
Struggles with actual contests at the rim, but doesn’t allow many in the first place.
Slows the game down to a crawl.
So on and so forth. This is a defense that wants to pack it in and keep everything in front of it. Lots of offenses resort to lofting up midrange jumpers or dumping it out for panicky threes; only nine teams gave up fewer rim attempts in 2022-23, per ShotQuality. If you can get there, you can score, but getting there in the first place has proven difficult. So: jumpers game! Hooray for variance, which has never made a single person mad in human history.
The path against these guys is basically “can you hit your two-pointers.” Threes obviously matter, but considering that Wisconsin is just 17-16 in games where opponents hit 50%+ of their twos the last two years (28-7 otherwise), the twos are meaningful. There isn’t one specific way to beat the Badgers, but there’s at least some amount of evidence that Wisconsin’s actual post defense is not very good. Synergy ranked it in the second-percentile last year. Some of that is unfortunate 3PT luck (teams shot 40% from deep on post passouts), but a lot more of it is based around Crowl not really profiling as a good defender.
For all Crowl does offensively, he’s never profiled as a shot blocker and is far more invested at avoiding foul trouble. None of Wisconsin’s other pieces were really any better, and Wisconsin’s switch-heavy system ends up with Hepburn - a 6’2” guard - ending up on a much larger offensive player more often than Greg Gard presumably would like.
Tennessee is not expected to exploit that a ton, given their general lack of on-ball screens in Barnes’ motion offense, but no team uses more off-ball screens than Tennessee. Teams attempted to screen Wisconsin off-ball pretty often last year to test the switching, but none that really come at you as frequently as Tennessee does.
That being said, this is a defense that does all the things listed up top and is also tremendous at stopping transition opportunities. They don’t chase offensive rebounds much and rarely get to the foul line, but what that does is allow them to get back on defense after frequent misses and stop transition opportunities. It also obviously helps that they’re perennially top 5 in offensive TO%.
Basically, these guys generally force a lot of analytically-unfriendly shots, make games boring, and do everything in their power to wall off the paint to keep you away from the rim. The downfall here for Wisconsin is two-fold: if you get to the rim, there isn’t really anyone who can stop you. Also, this looks like a Tennessee team that is pretty good at hitting jumpers, even in unfamiliar environments. We’ll simply have to wait and see. On Peacock! Feel the excitement!
SPECIAL GUEST: Drew Hamm
My friend Drew runs Badgers Ball Knower and wrote for Bucky’s 5th Quarter for many, many years. He may be the most Wisconsin-y Wisconsin fan I know? I asked him to provide a preview; this is what he wrote verbatim. (Well, mostly. I made minor edits.) The floor is Drew’s!
“Well, well, well, if this isn’t EXTREMELY embarrassing for the Tennessee Volunteers: this season the Wisconsin Badgers rank No. 19 in offensive efficiency (with an eFG% of 70.0!!!) according to KenPom and the Vols are all the way down at No. 32. Hell, the Badgers are AVERAGING 105 points per game this year. What’s that? NEVERMIND HOW MANY GAMES HAVE BEEN PLAYED! The numbers don’t lie, friends, Wisconsin is an offensive juggernaut now.
Anywho, Friday night’s tilt at the Kohl Center between the Vols and the Badgers should be a fun one for fans of Not Wisconsin Or Tennessee that just want to point and laugh as these two teams try to club each other to death in a race to 62 points. Wisconsin’s defense was very good in their first game, and should be very good all season, while Tennessee’s should be better than that. Both teams have added offense via the transfer portal (Wisconsin with 6-foot-7 wing AJ Storr from St. John’s who scored 15 points in the opener) but will still hang their hats on the defensive side of the ball.
As I’d assume many of you reading this are not super familiar with the mighty Badgers of Wisconsin, allow me to offer up a couple of things to watch for on Friday night!
True freshman John Blackwell is maybe my favorite basketball player in human history. Standing at 6-foot-4, Blackwell is a pitbull on defense, knows where to be when off the ball, doesn’t need the ball in his hands to affect UW’s offense, and rebounds like a player much larger than he is. He comes off the bench for the Badgers and provides a spark on both ends of the court.
Steven Crowl aka Big Steve is UW’s 7-foot center. I wouldn’t call him a rim protector per se, but he is really tall and can block shots sometimes. He is a competent three-point shooter and will need to be marked out there, but his best skill imo is his passing. Crowl had four assists against Arkansas State and last year his assist rate of 19.1 was No. 461 in the whole country. Not bad for a center! If there’s an open cutter, he’ll find them.
As of me writing this sentence on Thursday afternoon, it is not known if sophomore sharpshooter Connor Essegian will play against Tennessee. In the season opener, while going up for a rebound, an Arkansas State player landed on his back and he sat out most of the game. If able to play, Essegian is a player you need to guard as soon as he steps off the bus. He’s got unlimited range and is not shy about pulling the trigger no matter how many in a row he’s made/missed. He is perpetually in contention for Crazy Ass White Boy of the Week and if he doesn’t play, the Badgers could go through long stretches without scoring much. To be fair, they’ll do this if he does play too.
Time for some fast facts! Tyler Wahl can’t shoot, but he has excellent Old Man At The Y moves in the post; the aforementioned AJ Storr will probably throw down one (1) dunk that you’d never expect to see from a Wisconsin player; Chucky Hepburn is a very good point guard, you’ll probably leave this game liking him; Max Klesmit is a very good shooting guard/wing type, and you’ll probably leave this game NOT liking him.
So, there you have it. Everything you could possibly need to know about the Badgers! For a second during his recruitment, I thought that Greg Gard had a chance of reeling in JP Estrella but alas…it wasn’t meant to be.
If interested, you can follow me on Twitter (drewhamm5) where I’ll be ranting and raving about how Very Mean the Tennessee guards are being on defense during the game and then after the game I’ll go back to ranting and raving about (mostly) sports-related nonsense.”
Thanks to Drew for chipping in here! On with the show.
How Tennessee matches up
On one hand I’m looking at Tennessee’s athletes - particularly at guard and wing - versus Wisconsin’s and thinking this could be a little easier than anticipated. It’s just one game, but Tennessee currently rates in the top 20 in both spacing and shot making, per ShotQuality. Even last year’s mega-annoying team was top 40 in spacing. Here’s a full list of Big Ten teams who were top 50 in either category in 2022-23, along with being at least top 300 (really not a hard ask) in shot selection:
Penn State
uh
well
you see
I mean. Even last year’s Tennessee, a sickening offensive watch, created a lot of offensive space and did generally take good shots. They just didn’t have the shooters to make them. Through six games - five exhibition, one real - it appears they might have the shooters to make them this winter. Wisconsin did manage to win both matchups with PSU a year ago, but the Nits got them for 1 PPP and 1.094 PPP, respectively. They hit 52% on twos and 40% on threes. The reason they lost wasn’t shooting; it was that Penn State (and Micah Shrewsberry) got absolutely whooped in free throw count and rebounds.
Those two do give me a little pause, but given that PSU ranked 362nd out of 363 teams a year ago in forcing turnovers, I do not think they were the optimal matchup here. The closest comp is maybe Marquette with a worse offense but a better defense, which is a game Wisconsin did win but entirely because they shot 45% from three. Marquette made 55% of its twos and posted a 1.12 PPP.
That’s too many words. Here is what you need to know: Tennessee does actually possess a plausible plus in the post. Normally, when Tennessee runs a billion post-ups, fans cringe and moan and get very upset. Here, this is a Wisconsin defense that simply could not hang in true 1-on-1 post-ups in 2022-23 and returns that frontcourt intact for 2023-24. While I’d have plans for Jonas Aidoo to play a good bit in this one I wouldn’t put him in post situations; you would rather this be Tobe Awaka or even Josiah-Jordan James when they can work a mismatch. Awaka in particular could be an X-factor unless Wisconsin’s post defense has totally 180’d in an offseason.
Aside from that, this is a Tennessee basketball game where they are likely to play the hits. Lots of catch-and-shoot threes, lots of off-ball screens, lots of off-ball cuts, and lots of big men hovering in the dunker spot. Tennessee’s goal will be to push the pace wherever they can, but they’re unlikely to. I feel good about Tennessee’s ability to actually convert at the rim once they get there, but getting there could be a problem. Strap yourself in for a game where shooting variance will probably be a huge factor, whether good or bad.
Defensively…ahhhh. Not like the relaxed ahhh but the I don’t really know about that man ahhh. Wisconsin has more interesting shooting options than usual, but the best one of them in Essegian seems like a true 50/50 proposition to even play. When you’re 50/50 it is generally assumed that you aren’t 100%, and Wisconsin’s staff may or may not see it as worth pushing him to full-go status in a game that functionally means pretty little to UW’s bottom line beyond it being a good non-conference win.
I did see Wisconsin run a lot of off-ball screens against Arkansas State, which is a continuation of what they’ve done for a while under Gard. These are used to create favorable 1-on-1 matchups for driving, or, alternately, move the defender out of position to create an open jumper. Wisconsin is much more likely to opt for the latter. 2022-23’s Badgers had the ninth-fewest rim attempts of any Division I team, and while it looked a lot better against Arkansas State it’s an Arkansas State team without a real rim protector.
Tennessee has a real rim protector named Jonas Aidoo. It is Aidoo’s job to do everything in his power to avoid foul trouble in this game. Given that Wisconsin isn’t much for fouls on either end under Gard, I think he can survive, but in a road game in an unfamiliar setting with strange refs you never know. Only one team in all of college basketball (take a wild guess) posted up more last season than the Badgers. They’ll look to force-feed Crowl and Wahl early. I assume Aidoo gets the Crowl matchup; if so he has to be ready to force him over his right shoulder. The hook shots are deadly, but you’ll take a hook shot over an easier layup.
This is just about what you’re comfortable giving up. Tennessee is probably fine letting Wisconsin take threes as long as they’re well-guarded, but they’d like to run those shooters out of a true catch-and-shoot scenario if possible. They’ll give up a runner or a floater, but not a lot of true layups. Both teams will have to work hard for their points; I just think that on paper Tennessee’s path(s) may be a little more sustainable. But basketball is basketball, and it is a strange sport.
Expected starters + rotations
Via KenPom. Our normal charts will return for the Maui Invitational.
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Key matchups
Steven Crowl vs. Jonas Aidoo. Crowl’s such a good passer for a big, but Aidoo really may be the best rim protector in the nation pound-for-pound. I cannot wait to see this matchup.
Chucky Hepburn vs. Zakai Zeigler. Hepburn is Chaos; Zeigler is calm. I would like to see calm win out but I’m aware of how the world works.
AJ Storr vs. Dalton Knecht. Buckets vs. buckets. I think that Storr can stay in front of Knecht at times but was an actively bad defender at SJU last year and has yet to pop here. That sounds a lot like Knecht, but Knecht has actually come off alright as a defender thus far. If Knecht’s getting to the rim with real frequency this is a likely Tennessee win.
Three things to watch for
Pace. Because on paper, given these two teams and what you know about them, you would be surprised if this cracks 65 possessions or if either team touches 70 points. I think a faster-paced game really leans in Tennessee’s favor, but that’s easier said than done. OTOH, on possessions that were 20 seconds or longer last year Wisconsin shot a horrific 41% on twos and 31% on threes. Wisconsin did not have a single game even touch 70 possessions last year, so I’ll believe this transition-heavy stuff when I see it.
Post vs. post. Crowl likely gets his; I am mostly curious about if and how Tennessee can match that. This feels like a game where Awaka really has to be good and in control of his own energy.
Shot making. This is two-fold. I would be a little surprised if either team gets past 15 free throw attempts unless officials take over, so FT% matters, but given that both teams are reasonably expecting to take ~60% of their shots as true jumpers, shooting variance is really going to carry this game. An average, normal game by both teams likely results in Tennessee slightly out-shooting Wisconsin. A couple of extra made shots than anticipated in either direction could swing the game, given that no one anticipates a huge gap in rebounding/turnovers/fouls.
Three predictions
This game stays within a single-digit scoring margin the entire way;
Tennessee’s leading scorer is predictably Dalton Knecht with…ahh, I don’t know, 17 points;
Tennessee 65, Wisconsin 63 in a game with 61 total possessions.